Attn: Andy/Gold Folks/Stock Watchers/CEF buyers/Prudent Bear Fans -- Some Questionsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
I know that many believe cash is king and gold in your back yard is the safest bet. However, I can't do that with my assets for various reasons -- I need a less extreme defensive position.I currently have positions in both CEF and BEARX and have a couple of questions I need some thoughts on. Only answers from those who have pondered these specific issues will help me at this point. (i.e., general declarations of doom do not help at this point.)
(1) If you are an owner of Prudent Bear shares, where would you jump off in a pre-Y2K drop and, if the market doesn't correct, will you carry these shares over the "CDC"? Do you have any concern whatsoever that this bullion does NOT exist in such an explicit manner (see below)?
(2) Do any of you lack confidence in the existence and dependability of the bullion underlying the CEF shares? Do you believe that banking failures will cause liquidity problems of CEF shares in the long run? (If not, it's not a bad way to hide IRA assets and other cash without removing it from the system.)
PS--For those who are unaware of the Central Fund of Canada (stock symbol CEF), it is a gold/silver holding company fully backed by bullion stored in a major banking institution in Canada. The yahoo web site and fund managers do prove to be very useful. This is worth considering for wealth preservation by those who are not willing to empty large accounts (IRA and other) but are concerned about the safety of their paper/electronic money.)
-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 11, 1999
I have some Prudent Bear and some gold coins. I would leave the money in Prudent Bear until the market pops. Too bad they are in the S&P instead of Nasdaq -- given the silly runup of the last couple of months, the Nasdaq bubble is far more extreme. Even if Y2K is a BITR (*very* unlikely), BEARX is still a good bet.My main concern is that the market may tank so badly that even though their positions will be worth a lot, they will be unable to collect due to broker bankruptcies. The cash in individual accounts is insured by SIPC, but I'm not sure what the situation is with a mutual fund's positions. Anyone know if there were payment problems of this kind in Japan '91, or U.S. '29 ?
I was keeping the gold just for the low-probability extreme crash scenario, since I expected deflation next year. But seeing the Fed dump liquidity into the market, I'm not so sure anymore. Seems like that's their only cure for all problems. So if the economy takes a hit, we can probably count on Greenspan pumping in even more liquidity. At some point, that has to show up as inflation.
Of course, it could go the same way as Japan, where even near-zero interest rates did not encourage a recovery.
-- You Know... (notme@nothere.junk), December 11, 1999.
Prudent bear,woof woof.Should be prudent dog. A savings account would have returned a better yield.Plus your paying outrageous management fees to see your money go down the drain.
-- dw (dw@hm.dw), December 11, 1999.
Ever notice how people who post their replies in color are pathetic losers who are desperately seeking attention? Like dw, for example.
-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 11, 1999.
So why are you doinr it????
-- Huh?? (u2@here.??), December 11, 1999.
Maybe he's/she's practicing. BTW,Did you click on the site?Prudent Bear is a dog!
-- huh? (u2@here.net), December 11, 1999.
DAVE: Seems the others that posted are interested only in questioning your motives, which is not what you asked for.FWIW: www.wavechart.com
The site Elliott technician JUST got out of hospital(two weeks), yet what is amazing is that his wave count is still valid in the 2-week hiatus.
Since it's a pay-site, I'm not sure what exactly I can post, but I do believe I can say that he is still calling for a fast dip to the low 9000's--the only question is the time element, which is the LEAST certain element in this theory.
Note that when looking at a long-term view of the wave patterns, they unfold true-to-form, and seem incredibly accurate because the time element has , by definition, filled in in an historical graph!
What is interesting in his wave count is that he is saying that we WILL get a Y2K panic of some kind, DESPITE all the TENS of billions pumped into the system by Greedspin. THEN, he is calling for a rally up off that, but that doesn't mean that it won't collapse later, due to Y2K problems perhaps that roll their way through the economic wheels.
Regardless, there IS coming a massive day of reckoning, the likes of which has never been seen in the whole history of the USA. The NASDAQ behavior has now surpassed in all measures even that of the Great TULIPMANIA of the 1600's! That was followed by a tremendous crash and a very long depression.
You will have to weigh any information given you to see if it fits your "believability" index, and comfort zone!
-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), December 12, 1999.
Hi DaveI know that many believe cash is king and gold in your back yard is the safest bet. However, I can't do that with my assets for various reasons -- I need a less extreme defensive position. I currently have positions in both CEF and BEARX and have a couple of questions I need some thoughts on. Only answers from those who have pondered these specific issues will help me at this point. (i.e., general declarations of doom do not help at this point.)
(1) If you are an owner of Prudent Bear shares, where would you jump off in a pre-Y2K drop and, if the market doesn't correct, will you carry these shares over the "CDC"? Do you have any concern whatsoever that this bullion does NOT exist in such an explicit manner (see below)?
####### I was in BEARX for several months and made some profits - when it eventually dawned on me a couple of months ago that a crash was now unlikely I got out, if I hadn't I would have taken severe losses... it's a shame, but BEARX is suffering now... #######
(2) Do any of you lack confidence in the existence and dependability of the bullion underlying the CEF shares? Do you believe that banking failures will cause liquidity problems of CEF shares in the long run? (If not, it's not a bad way to hide IRA assets and other cash without removing it from the system.)
####### I would prefer Au in my personal posession... #######
PS--For those who are unaware of the Central Fund of Canada (stock symbol CEF), it is a gold/silver holding company fully backed by bullion stored in a major banking institution in Canada. The yahoo web site and fund managers do prove to be very useful. This is worth considering for wealth preservation by those who are not willing to empty large accounts (IRA and other) but are concerned about the safety of their paper/electronic money.)
####### Good luck, however it turns out. I have all my moola now in PM's, cash, and oil options... we'll see soon enough, however if there is a y2k induced oil shock this could burst the bubble and then Bearx would come into it's own... IF you can collect on Bearx which is a moot subject... #######
good luck Dave!
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 12, 1999.