December 9, 1999

Y2K Expert Lays Out Key Problems Facing US: Government Programs, Water, Chemical Accidents, Health Care, & More

http://www.y2kcenter.org/resources/centerpubs/gwuremarks.html

(Norman L. Dean, Executive Director, Center for Y2K and Society)

What does the Executive Director of the Center for Y2K and Society consider to be the key Y2K problems facing the US? These issues:

Government Benefit Programs. First, it appears increasingly likely that some key government benefit programs will fail in certain states, harming those least able to protect themselves: the poor, the sick, the elderly and young children. According to the federal government's own auditors, 27 states still have not completed Y2K fixes and tests for one or more of the following programs: Medicaid, unemployment, food stamps, child support, and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF)...

Drinking Water. The second problem facing the country is drinking water. The status of the nation's drinking water remains a huge question mark. Despite repeated calls for more investigation by experts such as the General Accounting Office, too little has been done to verify the Y2K readiness of the highly computerized drinking water purification plants. The most extensive industry survey of the water industry, conducted last summer, found less than one-half of the nation's drinking water plants had completed their Y2K work. The situation is even worse for waste treatment plants.

The City of Detroit yesterday explained what is at stake here while announcing the installation of 44 diesel backup generators:

The loss of our ability to treat and distribute [potable] water because of a power outage could have grave effects on the system. As for water, an interruption in pumping would create air pockets in the pipes that could permit pipeline contamination from groundwater. And, sewage could back up into basements and surface waters. The consequences to the environment, our health, and the machinery in our plants could be devastating...

Chemical Accidents. There is an increased risk of fires, leaks and explosions at the nation's small and medium- sized chemical plants. According to a recent Texas A&M study, 86 percent of these plants have done little or nothing to prepare. The chairman and vice-chairman of the bi-partisan Senate Committee on Y2K were sufficiently alarmed by this report to call on the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to mobilize local officials. There are at least 66,000 of these facilities nationwide...

Healthcare. The nation's healthcare system is, by most accounts, still lagging behind. Many nursing homes and small rural and inner city clinics are completely unready for Y2K. In addition, sophisticated medical equipment including computer chips which may be affected by the date change may or may not have been tested in larger hospitals...

911 Systems. A national survey found that one-half of surveyed 911 systems were not fully Y2K ready as of October 1. Defenders of the defective systems say that callers to many of the systems still will be able to reach a 911 operator but the automated dispatch computers that speed emergency vehicles on their way may not work. However, it is those very automatic dispatch systems that have trimmed precious seconds off emergency response times - seconds that can make the difference between life and death in the case of a heart attack or a fire...

Embedded Systems. One of the largest remaining Y2K wildcards is the issue of embedded computer systems. Embedded systems are small computers hidden in everything from manufacturing plants, undersea oil rigs to commercial air conditioners. We know shockingly little about which and how many embedded systems might fail because of Y2K. Just yesterday, Secretary of Commerce Daley urged American businesses to "redouble their efforts" to test for Y2k problems in embedded systems. He did so because his National Institute of Standards and Technology concluded that "it is possible that many important systems have not been tested adequately..."

Nonprofit Organizations. Small nonprofits provide a wide range of essential community services such as health care, foster care and child care. They run crisis hot lines and food banks. There is mounting evidence that small nonprofits - like small businesses - have not prepared for Y2K. An August survey of Nashville nonprofits found that only 29% had started testing or contingency planning...

Recovery. Last but not least, there is the issue of recovery. Very little thought or planning has gone into how we will track Y2K failures and recover from serious Y2K system failures. We need to begin thinking about how to fix broken systems as rapidly and as efficiently as possible...The paper also recommends preventive measures for each of these problem areas. Certainly worth reading if you're involved in any of these areas.

Drew Parkhill

-- Rod (rspain@webcombo.net), December 10, 1999

Answers

"The most extensive industry survey of the water industry, conducted last summer, found less than one-half of the nation's drinking water plants had completed their Y2K work. "

What I have not heard is what kind of problems were found in the plants that have completed their Y2K work. How many of those plants would have shut down or put the public at risk if they had NOT been fixed? And how long would they have been down before they were fixed?

Just wondering.

-- chicken farmer (chicken-farmer@ y2k.farm), December 10, 1999.

"The most extensive industry survey of the water industry, conducted last summer, found less than one-half of the nation's drinking water plants had completed their Y2K work. "

Er, how much less than one half?

-- Car (Caruthers@Carumba.lumumba), December 10, 1999.