This is the latest Y2K Oil Analysis from the DOE/US-IEA

It appears that as we move into the end-game of Pre-Y2K, the DOE has suddenly begun to take Oil/Gas very seriously in the Y2K crisis. Here's the latest report dated 12/9/99. It looks like they might be posting this daily (?) I'm not sure. I just discovered this page. Gordon might be able to shed further light on this.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/ESARDec9.html

As January 1, 2000 approaches, the world oil market situation is expected to be extremely tight, with inventories being drawn down as world oil demand outstrips supply. The large oil inventory surplus which was seen throughout 1998 and much of 1999 is expected to be more than erased by the end of 1999. This will help keep world oil prices high through the winter. Changes in inventories reflect shifts in the petroleum supply and demand balance, and are an important influence on oil prices in and of themselves. Inventory behavior also is affected by market psychology (for instance, whether prices are expected to be higher or lower in the near-term) among other factors. The figure above (specifically, the dashed red line) shows that OECD stocks by the end of 1999 are projected to be at or below the low levels reached in 1996, when West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices peaked above $25 per barrel. The dramatic decline in oil inventories since 1998 and the middle of 1999 is largely due to OPEC's disciplined cuts in production (and strict adherence to quotas), as well as to strong world oil demand. Continuing economic recovery in Asia and a booming U.S. economy are the two most important factors currently pushing up world oil demand. Assuming that OPEC continues to adhere closely to its production quotas, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that oil inventories will not recover to more normal levels until sometime after the first half of 2000.

EIA's current oil inventory forecast, as shown in the figure above, assumes that Iraqi oil exports are halted for two weeks. As of now, Iraqi exports already have been absent for just over two weeks, and any additional delays in resumption of Iraqi oil exports are likely to reduce EIA's inventory forecast even further. As the year 2000 approaches, oil inventories are far below year-ago levels. On the other hand, due to OPEC production cuts, there is more surplus oil production capacity available today than there was a year ago. However, it is uncertain whether, and to what degree, OPEC would use this surplus capacity to relieve price pressures.

There is a lot more oil information yet to come so stay tuned.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 10, 1999

Answers

RC This is the same Department of Energy that gives these assessments for Y2K Vulnerability:

Venezuela = Low

USA = low

Mexico = low

Norway = Low

U.K. = Low

Venezuela = Low

Russia= Moderate

Iran = Moderate

Iraq = Moderate

-- Orangeman (not@there.anymore), December 10, 1999.

oops, here's the URL:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/security/Y2KAssess.html

So. Are THEY lying?

-- Orangeman (not@there.anymore), December 10, 1999.

Well Orangeman,

You didn't post the entire table. Maybe you're html impaired like myself. I started to post the whole table but it scrambled badly on me. IF you look at the table carefully you'll note a variety of categories including complexity of technology, etc. etc. Considering the fact that the Venezuelan gov't admitted that there was 0 compliance as of March, its hard to believe that they somehow got it ALL fixed in 6 months, when everyone else is taking years, and note the technology level applied in that table to Venezuela.

I find the following statement from a Petro Engineer posted by Andy tending to confirm my suspicions about Venezuela based upon an old retired wildcatter who used to take his company down to Venzuela for projects. His experiences are more than 5 years old, so I've kinda looked to see what others are saying about Venezuela now. The Petro Engineer from Andy's post sounds extremely familiar about the infrastructure. Also, the Engineer is dead-on about the wells and the density of Venz oil. I'd consider the DOE report to be extremely optimistic publicly.

Read between the lines of their Press statements in the past few days, and get yourself up to speed on the basics of oil and you'll quickly realize you're being deliberately "snowed" for a reason. They don't want to panic you while they're panicking. We must panic in an organized manner...governments first (starting with the Feds) and when their done, it will be your turn.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 10, 1999.

Unlike Gold the oil market is just too big to manipulate - it took only a 7% hit in the 70's to cause a recession - I wouldn't put it past certain countries to deliberately hamper oil delivery in order to drive up prices whilst simultaneously balming the problem on y2k - only problem is the y2k problem is real...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 10, 1999.