Gartner projects Y2K Compliance at 85% for USA - Trade = SEVERE IMPACTgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
This appears to be the best case scenario at this time.
-- Bill P (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 09, 1999
Or 15% FAILURE. Definitely enough to bring down the house of cards.
-- fatanddumb (email@example.com), December 09, 1999.
Well Gartner's current projections don't make any sense, since in Oct 98 they said that small and medium business (less than 20,000 employees according to their defintion) 0 - 10 % and 10- 20% complete and that it takes 34 months to do a proper y2k remediation project on average. And therefore there were bound to be serious problems. I see they have now joined they are now marching to the standard tune of the press that basically everything will be ok.
What is interesting from the summary of their Oct 98 report is the following:
"Fifty percent of all enterprises are not planning to perform any year 2000 testing - they intend to fix code and install to production."
Hmm, as a developer with 20 years experience, I never knew you could program that way, I must try that out my next project once my boss has confirmed I won't be fired for doing so.
-- Interested Spectator (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 09, 1999.
Thanks for digging this up Bill P. This is one of the best tools I have seen for visualizing the world situation. It really gives you a feeling of the magnitude of Y2K.
-- Reporter (email@example.com), December 09, 1999.
Sounds incredibly optimistic to me.
Think about the implications of moderate impact on gov't and severe impact on trade...
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 09, 1999.
No, I don't think Gartner is taking a backstep.
Their 1998-10-07 report says of the US, "The
majority of large companies in Catagory 1
countries will complete at least 80% of level
IV by 2000."
Click on Russia and China for a real scare.
-- spider (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 09, 1999.
I like that part about how the US gov has been working on Y2K for 10 yrs. As far as I know, only Soc Security and maybe 1 or 2 others have been at it that long. BTW, that little number scrambling that happened the other day at SS is being blamed on the contractor that printed the letters. The numbers on the checks were correct, but the letters had them wrong. Somebody's computer messed up, but SS says it wasn't theirs.
-- soapie (email@example.com), December 09, 1999.
Well to me it would seem, that the bulk (70+%) of the organizations both in sheer numbers and by total people employed in 1998 had only completed 0-20% of the required work. Now 80% of the companies are now complete which means somehow these laggards who weren't serious about Y2K managed to do with less resources than the big boys, what the big boys couldn't do. Also I wonder how many utilities, water companies, etc. have over 20,000 employees. Not many I would guess and therefore that would put them in the small/mid size business according to gartner and therefore by now about 15-18 months into a 34 month project according to their 1998 survey.
-- Interested Spectator (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 10, 1999.