We've done just about everything we could do to prepare ourselves and our home. We've stockpiled cash and food, bought chickens and a guard dog, driven a shallow well and built a security fence and stashed a whole lot of ammo. So many of our decisions over the past two years have been made in view of the event which will soon be here.

I've wondered how I would feel if Y2K is a nonevent. It's hard to say. I'd probably be embarrassed, be a bit disappointed, and relieved all at the same time. Admittedly, with all the happy face reports in the media these days, and with the almost universal DGI attitude among our friends, it's been increasingly difficult to take Y2K seriously. That's one of the reasons why I spend so much time on the internet. I know my computer whiz son is a DGI and he thinks my time spent here is some kind of addiction. But I don't really believe it is. It's more a survival instinct. I don't want to come into the rollover unprepared emotionally. I want to be sharpened and ready for action.

All that said, there is, I believe, evidence to suggest that it will be much more serious than anyone wants to admit. It's not the anecdotal evidence I'm thinking about. It's the same stuff that was said by Gary North and others from the very beginning. It's philosophical. Y2K cannot be fixed because it is systemic and it is complex beyond comprehension. Y2K cannot be fixed and never could. Of course, it remains to be seen what the word "fixed" actually means.

So, why has the government consistently refused to admit it is a problem, even at this late date? Why have corporations and media outlets done the same? Most of us thought everyone would be a GI by now? Why are there so many DGIs, even among my closest friends? There are only a few options:

1. There is no real problem, the pollies are right. We GI's have been had. We're such fools. 2. Many of the DGIs are DWGIs -- are part of a massive conspiracy or coverup. 3. They are collectively and willfully ignorant of the "whole" and because of their inscrutable belief in "luck".

From my wording, you can probably tell that I believe #3 to be the true reason. There may be some kind of conspiracy among a power elite, shadow government, Bilderberg-thingy. But my reason tells me this is very limited in scope and it doesn't account for the massive ignorance among corporate America and the rest of the world.

What does?

When the Y2K issue comes up at my church people like Gordon and my pastor emphatically insist that Y2K will be a nonissue or BITR because corporations would "never let it happen"; they would go out of business if it did and would never allow that. Therefore, Y2K will be fixed, one way or the other.

Excuse me, but there's something missing in this line of reasoning! I don't know the exact name of the logical fallacy but it must have something to do with post hoc ergo proper hoc, or non sequitur. If this line of reasoning were accurate, there would be no criminals facing death row and no sinners facing Hell fire. Everyone would finally come to himself at some point and say, "if I continue on this path, I'll have to pay for it. I'm going to change my ways." Obviously, it doesn't work that way. Criminals continue in crime, even with the threat of the electric chair and sinners continue in sin even with the knowledge that everyone has and everyone will die at some point.

Fools are born every day. And fools usually die in their folly. It's like the gambler who thinks he can "beat the odds" if he rolls the dice just "one more time". If he could just stand back from his folly long enough to see that the odds of beating the odds are definitely not in his favor, maybe he would... No. He can't. He won't. That's why he's a fool.

I really think this whole thing has to do with people's belief in luck.

For the more philosophically minded among us, please allow me to digress a bit and talk about "luck" and "chance".

I've been reading a book by theologian R.C. Sproul in which he discusses this issue. His context is cosmology--the origins of the universe. But his arguments are relevant to this discussion as well. In short, Sproul rejects the notion that chance can ever do anything. Chance is "no thing"

Sproul quotes French mathematician Pierre Delbet, "Chance appears today as a law, the most general of all laws. It has become for me a soft pillow like the one which in Montaigne's words only ignorance and disinterest can provide, but this is a scientific pillow". Sproul goes on to quote contemporary philosopher Stanley Jaki: "...once more, as so often in history, most successful mathematical formulas served as magic tools for making shabby philosophizing a most respectable attitude." How can you account for a universe without a Creator? You replace the concept of Creator with "chance" and voila! You don't need a Creator any more.

I realize the context of this paragraph is "shabby philosophizing" about cosmology. But I believe the statements can also be applied to the whole Y2K issue. The experts don't necessarily use such crass concepts as "chance" and "luck" to describe how we are going to get through it. But the belief is implicit in what they say. "Sure, the evidence is great to suggest that we have never before faced such a monumental threat to civilization... Of course, technological systems are complex beyond description... Granted, our track record of handling multi-faceted disasters with fixed deadlines is pathetic-- BUT, with so much at stake, surely, we'll luck out in the end. Chance will get us (or at least me) through..."

Never stated. But believed by the masses.

We have become a nation of fools. And with all the evidence, all that warning, all the threat of world-wide disaster, that folly will become all the more apparent in the next few weeks.

Yes, I suppose I run the risk here of appearing like the greater fool. After all, I've spent a good share of my life (the last two years at least) on this junk. What if it isn't a problem after all, what if next year at this time we're still eating oatmeal and canned tuna? What if...

But so what? What if? As many on this site have commented, what kind of fools are we *really* if it turns out to be a nonissue? Is it foolish to have stored food? Is it foolish to simplify our lifestyle so that we can live without electricity? Is it foolish to contemplate and make plans for how to survive in an emergency?

On the other hand (and I know this has been said many times, by many others on this site), what if it IS really bad? What if all the warnings were true? Who will be the greater fool then? While a religious reliance upon chance by the DGIs would certainly prove prove fatal, what will my refusal to rely upon chance produce?

Just some thoughts to keep me sane as the clock ticks down...

-- JER (I_GET_IT@this.time), December 07, 1999

Answers

JER, my philosophy is that it is much better to prepare and have a non-event occur than the opposite. I do not think any one should feel foolish if it is a non-event. I hope it IS such. I will miss the likes of Wendy's and KFC, and coffee at Barnes and Nobles. However, the prudent thing for a wise person to do is to prepare because there are enough indications that the possibility of a major disaster can occur. So...please don't feel foolish if it is a non-event, feel thankful. I would much rather have a non-event, than a 10 event that I am prepared for. May God be with you all...

-- nothing (better@to.do), December 07, 1999.

Dear JER,

Somehow, there is no way to know what will happen, the complexities are immense, I'm on your side, I have been so ridiculed and laughed at because I recognize the ramifications of a failed "just in time" delivery actually means, I know some small business's are going to totally tank because they haven't done didly to prepare for the inevitable. Fix on failure, yea sure, give me a break. FAT CHANCE FOLKS. May all of the leaders, who should have spoken up and given the populance a chance to survive, rot in hell "whatever hell may mean" I'm sorry, I'm just disgusted with the lame leadership this "or any other" country should be getting from their so called "elected servants" are getting. Sorry, rambling again......Michael

-- Michael Teever (teotwawki_soon_2000@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.

JER, I know how you feel. You almost exactly describe my own feelings and situations, other than the fact that my family and church have been supportive of me and are also preparing. I guess I am not as alone as you are.

I find it a stuggle at time to maintain some kind of "sane" perspective on this thing. I suspect a lot of GI's are educated, thoughtful people who have never been counted in the ranks of conspiracy theorists, militias, end-times fanatics or survivalists before. Suddenly we find ourselves in a position we never thought we would be in and surrounded by an ocean of denial. It tends to play with your mind.

I guess the good (and bad) news is the waiting is almost over. We will soon know if our preps were wisdom or over-reaction. Personally, regardless of what happens, I do not regret any of my preparations.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 07, 1999.

One more thing --- along with a lot of craziness, (a la chemtrails, etc) y2k has inspired a lot of quality writing, your posting among them. I enjoyed reading your thoughts. Good luck!

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 07, 1999.

Please delete anything Y2KPro has to say. It's utterly worthless nonsense.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 07, 1999.

JER, thank you so much for verbalizing your thoughts on this subject. My thoughts exactly. If you read the DWGI/Polly posts here from the past, you can boil most of them down to one expression:

They say, "It's the odds, not the stakes."

There is nothing important or sacred enough to them to sacrifice for.

---

I say, "It's the stakes, not the odds."

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), December 07, 1999.

"You replace the concept of Creator with "chance" and voila! You don't need a Creator any more. "

"When the Y2K issue comes up at my church people like Gordon and my pastor emphatically insist that Y2K will be a nonissue or BITR because corporations would "never let it happen .... Excuse me, but there's something missing in this line of reasoning! I don't know the exact name of the logical fallacy .."

I suggest the "fallacy" is Idolotry, with America's faith in CEO's (even your pastor, you said it!), then what "chance" is there?

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 08, 1999.

The stakes are high, but the odds aren't that great, either. The spin out there is dizzying. No panic at this late date!!!

Well, today I sent that Michael Hyatt article to a loop of friends, thereby alienating them all, apparently, with one woman saying there is nothing that ordinary people can do but face each day and just solider on... I then said that I didn't agree, that is something that can be done. Hey, I personally have spent a lot of money to prepare for Y2K and not all for myself (and I'm notoriously cheap). Don't tell me you can nothing nothing before rollover rolls over you...

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 08, 1999.

If Y2k is a non-event, then why have billions of dollars been spent trying to fix it? Why have the Nat. Guard and military had special training for the consequences of this non-event? Why has the Navy War College had four seminars, beginning in December of 1998, to analyze the affect of Y2k on the U.S. and other countries worldwide? Why was a special bunker built in Washington, D.C. at a cost of $50,000? Why has Canada also built a special command center/bunker? Why have major U.S. cities like Los Angeles and New York likewise built bunkers? Why have companies in the U.S. decided to shut down completely, unplugging their computers, during the rollover? Why has the American Red Cross published a preparedness checklist for Y2K? The list goes on and on, and it just doesn't add up to Y2K being a non-event.

-- Linda (lindasue1@earthlink.net), December 08, 1999.

"Chance favors the prepared."

Napoleon

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 08, 1999.

I've bought auto, life and fire insurance for years and haven't needed a dime of it yet. Who's laughing? Survival genes might be in style next year? Who knows? You get to keep the premiums.

-- robert j. (crandalls@cableone.net), December 08, 1999.

There has been quite a bit of philosophical writing on why people are so vehemently DWGI on Y2k. It challenges our most fundamental beliefs about our our society how we have constructed it, and our place in it. We hold these beliefs on a near-religious level, and you know where you get when you challenge someone's religious beliefs. We worship science and technology and have made ourselves its slaves. We do not want to face the possibility that we have "followed the wrong gods home."

An excellent essay is; http://www.mightycompanions.com/theconversation/amazing.html Li nk

Check http://www.co-intelligence.org/ for more related writings. Link

-- Joe (paraflyr@cybernet1.com), December 08, 1999.

Dang! let's try that again. http://www.co-intelligence.org/ Link

-- Joe (paraflyr@cybernet1.com), December 08, 1999.

Watch people driving around at rush hour (3p.m. to 7p.m. most places), past fast food drive-up windows, banks, 24-hour supermarkets, video rental stores, gas stations. Light changes, stop. Line of cars on right goes, hurry, hurry, make it through. Next light. Line turns in front of you. Arrow comes. Line next to you turns. Your turn. Follow SUV ahead. Exhaust coming in or no? Turn on AC? Windshield defrost or no? Your kid in back seat screaming, or chattering something you can't pay attention to. Radio station -- traffic report or music? Idiotic life.

The point: We are about as far from survival skills and being able to take care of ourselves if conveniences were withdrawn as any fiction writer could imagine. Yet we are overwhelmed and stressed-out by our "conveniences" and our souls would welcome a day or three or ? of quiet in their absence. We are precariously vulnerable and on edge and angry and looking to authority for protection while despising same. What a nasty no-win situation -- and we know we're stuck in it WHETHER OR NOT IT'S THE Y2K COMPUTERS THIS TIME, or something else in a year or two.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), December 08, 1999.

Joe, in speaking of the DGI's around us, you said, "We worship science and technology and have made ourselves its slaves. We do not want to face the possibility that we have "followed the wrong gods home."

That is so true and so profound.

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), December 08, 1999.

JER--beautiful essay. "We are a nation of fools." Who can deny it? A glance at our 'culture' confirms this. And Jor-el touches (as always) on a great truth--how we thirst, consciously or unconsciously, for several days respite from this technological hell we've built for ourselves (and the sparrows watch from the tree branches, wondering what fools...). But JER, relax a bit. Remember the proverb: the one who puts his trust in God will never be put to shame. Babylon must fall, and the meek shall inherit the earth.

-- Spidey (free@last.Amen), December 08, 1999.

"When the Y2K issue comes up at my church people like Gordon and my pastor emphatically insist that Y2K will be a nonissue or BITR because corporations would "never let it happen .... Excuse me, but there's something missing in this line of reasoning! I don't know the exact name of the logical fallacy .."

I suggest the "fallacy" is Idolotry, with America's faith in CEO's (even your pastor, you said it!), then what "chance" is there?

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 08, 1999.

(2 Ki 4:40 KJV) "So they poured out for the men to eat. And it came to pass, as they were eating of the pottage, that they cried out, and said, O thou man of God, there is death in the pot. And they could not eat thereof."

Want an interesting read? The account here relates to prophets/pastors, poison pottage=present day sermons, man of God=someone who understands the Word, meal in the pot=Word of God thrown in, pottage being eadible=now you have a pastor who understands what the Word is all about.

Learned this from an old preacher the other day. He says, "There is poison in the pot/pulpit and that is the reason many don't want anything to do with Church[ianity]" Pastor George also says the False Prophets/Preachers like to "Scare the liver out of little lambs."

-- Mark Hillyard (foster@inreach.com), December 08, 1999.

Hardly a day goes by when I don't question the preparedness path I chose about 18 months ago. After reflecting on it over the past weeks, I have come to the conclusion that Y2K doesn't really matter to *me* anymore....BITR or TEOTWAWKI. I am prepared.

I am prepared if I lose my job. I am prepared if the power goes out. I am prepared if there are riots. I am prepared if food supplies are disrupted. My children will not go hungry.

So, don't second guess your decisions. Perhaps, like me, you made them based on the best available information at the time. Perhaps, like me, you trusted your instincts. You can afford to be wrong. Can your neighbors?

Good "luck" to you all in the coming days. Just don't count on it to survive.

Stars and Stripes

-- Stars and Stripes (stars_n_stripes@my_deja.com), December 08, 1999.

Thank you all for your comments. I am heartened by the intellectual and spiritual depth of so many on this forum. Although I have voraciously consumed "evidence" in this whole Y2K thing, I have also had my sniffer out at all times, attempting (like my new guard dog) to ascertain the smell of those who post. Most of you smell pretty good to me! As for a few others who shall remain namelss on this thread...

-- JER (I GET IT@this.time), December 08, 1999.