Gary North was RIGHT about AIDS...greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
He predicted that AIDS would be TEOTWAWKI. Look at africa and asia... I think it is. In some african villages 30% to 75% of the people are infected and dying slowly and in great agony, leaving death and misery behind... I'd say that counts as teotwawki... Now think about his views on y2k, and apply this example... What do you think? And please remember that AIDS is avoidable, Y2K isn't...
-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 07, 1999
I believe that Mr. North's predictions (regarding AIDS) also included some dire scenarios for the U.S. - would you care to comment on the accuracy of his prediction as it applies to the whole and not one part. Additionally, if one is to grade a person's ability to "forecast" - would it not make sense to examine all of his predictions and derive a success/failure rate? Regards,
-- joe thomas (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 07, 1999.
One of my clients was diagnosed with HIV 10 years ago, but his viral load is ZERO now due to the wonderful research drugs available to him here in the good old usa. He is unemployed (from drug use, not medical prob) and still gets all health care and everything free because he is in America.
-- Hokie (email@example.com), December 07, 1999.
Given the information at the time, North's prediction was completely rational. The ONLY reason it did not come true, is because he did not count on the fact that it is MUCH more difficult to get AIDS than once thought. If a man has unprotected sex with an infected woman UNPROTECTED, he only has a 1 in 20 chance of getting the virus. If a woman has sex with an unprotected man, she has a 1 in 10 chance. We originally thought that if you had unprotected sex with an infected person, you were virtually certain to get the virus. Had that been true, than Gary North would have been right. Lucky for us, we were wrong.
-- Orson Wells (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 07, 1999.
Like Hyatt and Yourdon, Gary can't seem to get it right. Some examples...
1. "Months before January 1, 2000, the world's stock markets will have crashed."
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/index.cfm (Paragraph 6).
2. "The exodus of programmers will begin no later than 1999."
http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/index.cfm (Paragraph 5)
3. "The GPS rollover (to Jan. 6, 1980) on August 22, 1999, may create big problems for banks and bank wire transfers... My view: the banking system will be gone before y2k arrives."
4. "The Euro conversion is doomed. The deadline for stage one is January 1, 1999, and nobody has made it."
5. "Month by month, my former critics are moving my way. I'll be mainstream in a year."
6. "In January, 1999, the Jo Anne effect will begin to take its toll. That's when corporate fiscal years start rolling into 2000."
7. "If the Jo Anne effect begins to create panic in the corridors of the corporate world, think of April 1, 1999, when the three major trading partners of the United States roll into fiscal 2000: Canada, Japan, and New York State."
-- notscared (email@example.com), December 07, 1999.
Gary North was RIGHT about AIDS???
From "The Plague Has Come at Last by Gary North" 
In 1992, we will run out of available hospital beds. This means that when you take a family member to stay in the hospital, you will either be sent away, or be sent to a very expensive private hospital, or they will start stacking AIDS victims up in minimal-care, crowded facilities.
Link to more of North's failed predictions
-- CD (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 07, 1999.
Joe: we simply bought our way out of troble with special drugs, the long term effects of which are unknown/harmfull. We paid for an escape, the rest of the world however is unable to do this...
-- crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 07, 1999.
CD look at africa, that's what they're doing now! Even CNN( the comatose nausia network) admits that aids is a total disaster for the african conanent.
-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 07, 1999.
1/3 to 1/2 of african are infected and do not have access to the meds. I'd say that they will all die slowly, so gary was right about the third world effects. Does anyone doubt that????
-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 07, 1999.
As a heterosexual living in SF years ago I had many gay friends. All but one is dead now. AIDS wreaked havoc on the art world, the world of high culture, the heterosexual ghetto world of the inner city, the needle-using population, and the everyday gay population, and of course the Third World everywhere--not just Africa. There is still no cure for AIDS, only drug combos that delay its ravaging effects and the ultimate death from it. Hundreds of thousands of Americans are being kept alive and healthy with protease inhibitors of exorbitant cost--for now. Only an arrogant and ignorant American would argue North was wrong because AIDS isn't on the six o'clock news ahead of the latest school shooting. When the drug delivery system breaks down next year, then try to find an empty hospital bed.
-- StanTheMan (email@example.com), December 07, 1999.
Gee Hokie, Don't we live in a great country! Your friend gets aids from drug abuse ( from your description 8 years into the epidemic when everyone knew how to get aids), doesn't work AND spends probably what $25,000 a year on medication, not to mention whatever else the government spends on him. Makes me SO proud, and happy as a clam come April 15 to know that EVERY DAMN DIME I pay in taxes goes for such a good purpose. I hope your "Client" lives a long long life. Can't have too many folk like him contributing to the greatness of our country. PS as soon as he stops the drugs his viral load will come back.
-- Taxpayer (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 07, 1999.
For the NON-politically correct story on what AIDS REALLY is, and how it's been spun into a multi-billion dollar cash cow by all the major Federal agencies whose heads are interested only in glory and empire-building , read ANY of the excellent books by DR. PETER DUESBERG. He is considered a pariah by his colleagues as a result, BUT HE IS CORRECT.
Anyone who knows and understands Koch's postulates, and the FACT that they do NOT hold for the AIDS Virus, will understand very quickly.
BTW, there is also an excellent parallel in his book about the "need" to have a pathogen identified, due to the immense pressure from government and academia for prestige. That parallel took place YEARS before the word AIDS was ever mentioned, and it is the LEGIONNAIRE'S DISEASE scam. The same scam, yet it's all detailed in his books, and in studying it, you can actually see the same thing unfold with AIDS later.
-- profit of doom (email@example.com), December 07, 1999.
p.o.d. is right. Read the book, become educated.
The reason that North, Fumato, Strecker, et al made those predictions about AIDS becoming a terrible disaster is that they all believed what the government was saying.
Think about that for a moment. Gary North trusting the government?
IF, big IF, what the government was saying in the 1980 was true, then we would all be in BIG trouble. Luckily(?) they were Clintonizing, and they DID know the truth, at least the researchers did, I'm sure that the lower ranks were just blindly passing the garbage along.
P.S. Remember AZT was invented in the 1960's.
-- Ken Seger (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 07, 1999.
OK, suppose North was only half right about AIDS......no, late's make that 1/4 right.
Now suppose he's only 1/4 right about Y2K.....
-- Forrest Covington (email@example.com), December 08, 1999.