for those that have not prepared...The following is the conclusion reached by the National Guard...THERE IS INSUFFICIENT TIME TO FIX ALL Y2K PROBLEMS BEFORE JANUARY 1, 2000...THE ADJUTANTS GENERAL MUST BE PERSONALLY INVOLVED...link>http://www.ngb.dtic.mil/y2k/conclus.htm

-- Vern (bacon17@ibm.net), December 06, 1999

Answers

Link

(Right click on the page, select "View Source" and you can see how to do this yourself. It's as simple as it looks.)

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999.

Personally involved... "how?"

Oh well. Like the phrase...

The potential impact from private-sector interfaces must also be considered.

No kidding.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999.

FYI. although the web site has changed somewhat, that statement has been on their site since over a year ago. i always appreciated the national guard's site because it acknowledged the seriousness of y2k as many govt entities have not.

-- tt (cuddluppy@nowhere.com), December 06, 1999.

What is an ADJUTANTS GENERAL?

-- ? (?@?.?), December 06, 1999.

The Guard's current take on Y2K:

http://www.ngaus.org/ngmag/y2k1199.htm

Foiling Y2K's Worst:

Massive preparations should minimize computer bug-related disruptions at home,but Guard is ready to help if needed. Biggest problems may be overseas.

National Guard Magazine

November 1999

By Chris Maddaloni

There is just one month left until the inevitable crashing of the New Year.

And preparation for the near mythically proportioned Y2K crisis has progressed about as far as it can, since the problem's nascent arrival about five years ago.

The threat for the United States -- and the implicit duty for the National Guard -- is no longer shaping up to be a disaster-filled apocalypse, but rather a sporadic, low-grade headache.

"We have seen continued progress during the past eight months, and we are more confident than ever that a nationwide catastrophe will not occur," U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett, R-Utah, chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, said in a statement.

Most industries are safeguarded against the glitch, which is an error in the dating system that could disrupt a wide range of increasingly interconnected systems. Government officials are confident that essential systems like the national infrastructure and critical defense computers are safe.

It seems that in the United States, most of the problems predicted by reports would be local, for example small power outages and traffic-light disruption. But larger questions remain for foreign countries, and indeed, no one can be quite sure what will happen in the United States during the nebulous transition. In any case, the Guard is prepared for the worst of scenarios.

"There is no need for undue concern ... the key is effective community preparations, as you would prepare for hurricanes, floods, ice storms," said Maureen Lischke, the National Guard Bureau's Y2K program executive officer.

Guard officials say they have no plans for a nationwide Guard mobilization for any Y2K-spurred events.

Lischke noted this fall's Hurricane Floyd taught Guardsmen a lesson.

"The flooding in the Carolinas let us test our Y2K backup plans again. The [high frequency] radio was used, and some of our long distance learning systems were used in command and control ... We were able to test out a lot of our contingency plans," she said.

In May and September, Guard officials tested operational contingency plans.

The Army National Guard successfully conducted a nationwide communications exercise, known as COMEX. A high frequency radio net was established, contacting 52 of 54 states, with 91 percent of the stations running at the same time. This HF net provides a framework for nationwide communication if main systems fail. No such test had been done before.

All critical computer and weapon systems for the Army Guard have been certified as well. There has also been work done to insure that there will be no state and federal conflict of Guard resources. This means that disaster relief would not, for example, affect overseas deployments.

Air National Guard testing throughout the summer included a joint worldwide command post exercise, called Positive Response Y2K Assessment. It successfully tested mobilization, de-ployment, military intelligence and sustainment in the event of system crashes and failures of communication.

All of the Air Guard-unique systems have completed validation and certification stages of testing, and all weapon systems are compliant. Their operational continuity plan has been completed.

The Defense Department has deemed military records and payroll systems safe as well.

The crisis of the "Y2K bug" is an issue of computer dating systems. Programmers, in an attempt to save memory, used two digits to express the year, rather than four. However, when the year changes, "00" could be interpreted as 1900. This time reset could affect any number of interlocked systems for a small, minute change could ruin a minor or major program. And this failure could inspire a chain-reaction of numerous events.

How important is the timer in a computer?

During the Persian Gulf War in 1991, a Scud missile destroyed a barracks in Saudi Arabia. Twenty-eight Army Reserve troops were killed. A June 21, 1998, Boston Globe article reported investigators later discovered the Patriot defense system's radar was not set properly. The system was intended to be left on for short bursts of time, so its clock viewed a day as 23 hours and 59 minutes. But once the radar was set up in the Gulf, it was left on continuously, so day by day the one-minute discrepancy grew.

When the Scud was detected, it appeared as a blip on two radar systems. The two blips were sent to one computer-controlled firing-system, which had its own internal clock. However, the report states that since the blips were not properly synchronized to the same time, the computer could not identify the Scud as a target, allowing the missile to fly by the defenses.

This sort of minor-timing error could affect a variety of computers, ranging from the stock market, power grids, and nuclear power plants to a little coffee maker's embedded chip. The Los Angeles Department of Public Works recorded last June more than a million gallons of untreated sewage leaked on to the streets after a sanitation plant conducted its simulated Y2K test.

This timing transition could become a proverbial straw.

"If we built houses the way be built software, the first woodpecker to come along would destroy civilization," said Deputy Defense Secretary John J. Hamre in Senate testimony.

For most of the last decade, companies and the government have been installing patch programs and upgrades to attempt to correct the glitch. But now, time has effectively run out.

For the United States, it seems that all this preparation has blunted the damage that the bug could cause. The chair of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, John Koskinen, has said he is confident that the power, transport, communications, and health care systems are not in danger.

Although it should be noted that the State Department still urges travelers to be "prudent" in making flight plans for the New Year.

The NGB has reported that the most progress has occurred in the financial, pharmaceutical, food processing and manufacturing industries. The infrastructure is not a worry, and nor is a nationwide catastrophic power failure.

The Federal Emergency Manage-ment Agency, in cooperation with several other agencies, is in the process of testing compliance across the nation. What has come out of all these reports are some mutual concerns over the readiness of 911 grids, small phone companies, local natural gas, and water treatment systems. However, what really stands out is not the United States, but the situation worldwide.

Other than Western Europe, most experts agree that large parts of the world seem ill prepared for the conversion. Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe seem to be the worst off.

The CIA has expressed some concern over all the readiness of Soviet-era nuclear reactors.

Lawrence Gershwin, their national intelligence officer for science and technology, told the House, "making all Soviet-designed reactors compliant is not feasible, particularly given the age of the computer systems and the fact that many of the original manufacturers have gone out of business."

He noted though, "the chance of a nuclear incident is low, but it is higher than normal."

The CIA is not worried about an accidental nuclear strike from either party.

Russian officials have been invited to sit in at U.S. Space Command in Colorado on New Year's Eve to calm any worries they might have about the lack of their detection capabilities that evening.

The most likely Y2K problems will be economic, officials agree. Delivery of oil, fruits and vegetables could be delayed, and compounded with increased government instabilities.

"It is a mistake to believe that disruptions abroad won't hurt us here," Bennett said. "Economies are global."

The Defense Department has reported there are no major problems expected for military bases overseas, and any trouble for service members would be no worse than the effects of a large storm.

The State Department has not expressed significant concern either. However, because Eastern Europe's preparedness for Y2K is questionable, embassy staff in Minsk, Belarus; Vilnius, Lithuania; and Bratislava, Slovakia will be reduced to minimum staffing. A State Department spokesperson said if there are problems in the region, it would be easier to take care of fewer people.

The worries at home now are becoming a social issue as well as a technical one. Guard officials say they would not be surprised if the start of the new millennium provoked unrest or violence, especially from cults or terrorists.

The Washington Post reported that the FBI is warning police chiefs nationwide that it has discovered evidence of religious extremists, racists, cults and other groups preparing for violence as New Year's Eve approaches, and is urging law enforcement agencies to view the dawn of the next millennium as a catalyst for criminal activity.

In the nation's capital, all FBI and police time-off has been cancelled for the two weeks surrounding New Year's in anticipation of potential issues related to the conversion.

D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams has also asked the Guard to help the police with crowd control during the celebration, Lischke noted. There is also concern that perceived Y2K worries will turn into a panic, with runs on ATMs and grocery stores.

There have been some telling responses already. "One lady called me up and told us that she had put bars on her windows," Lischke said. "She told me she had stockpiled three months worth of food. She wanted to know how much ammunition she needed." The woman even volunteered her home for Guardsmen on alert during Y2K, Lischke said. Despite extreme reactions such as this, and rumors about elevators not working, Lischke expects few problems.

For the time being, 16 states have announced the Guard will be on alert for duty. And some states, such as Arkansas, will be training that weekend.

"The National Guard Bureau has already coordinated with the states to get a pulse on their plans for Y2K support," said Maj. Gen. Raymond F. Rees, NGB vice chief, during a Senate Y2K committee hearing. "Each state will have an operations center activated for the December to January transition period.

Each state has also augmented their existing State Emergency Response Plans to include potential Y2K disruptions. These plans cover multiple-disasters, phone outages, and alternate ways of contacting service members ... there are currently no open concerns we wish to bring up."

"The Guard is at the disposal of the governor, as it always is, in the case of any emergency," said Jack Gribben, Y2K council spokesman.

The likelihood of the Guard being called out immediately on the January 1 seems to shrinking. Many experts are now predicting that the programming errors that escaped detection, if any, will not be noticed for several months, perhaps even years.

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999.