We are currently operating in a "2" environment..........We are NOW experiencing a BITR......How much worse will it get?

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NOTE: Decided to give my response to an earlier post, a thread of its own.


We are currently operating in a 2 environment.

Reference: http://www.yourdon.com/books/HumptyDumptyY2K/CH02.html

NOTE: My comments in [] after the 2 criteria.

- Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered within 6 months. Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover. [Already experienced a 10% correction in the stock market within the last two months (due to Y2K fears IMHO) but have recovered nicely. Look for this scenario again, shortly.]

- A few supply chain issues A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas. [Hershey's comes to mind. Many more examples exist.]

- Air traffic slowdown due to consumer caution. [New Year's flights already cancelled or planning on cancelling around the globe.]

- Y2K jokes in late night talk shows trigger an inadvertent panic or shortage. [New orders for generators and wood stoves can't be filled by manufacturers until after Y2k due to overwhelming existing orders. Not caused by any single comment from DL or JL, but the end result remains the same. Look for more and more "speciality" or Y2K specific items to become "back ordered, can't deliver until AFTER January 2000." NOTE: John and Jane Q. Public have no experience with seeing "out of stock" signs on "necessity" items when he/she goes "hunting" for food and water at the local food farm (grocery store).]

- At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems. [The House of Representatives has already prepared us for this with a list of 16 state run programs not expected to be "compliant" by January 2000. Add in the IRS here, for good measure. Many examples of state government "glitches" already exist, although to their credit, they haven't been show stoppers, to date.]


A few additional comments:

From December 26, 1999 to December 31, 1999 (six days), I am predicting store shelves throughout the United States will be completely emptied. Even if Y2K is a dud, it will take months to resupply everything to its current level of availability. It won't be because we "doomers" panicked. We purchased when supplies were overflowing store shelves. It will be because the Pollies panicked. When this happens, it will be the beginning of TEOTWAWKI. From a 2 it escalates quickly to a 10. No in-between. And this is without the U.S. suffering ANY major Y2K related problems.

To speed up the rush to self-destruction, add in a couple of "unexplained" long term power outages between now and December 31, or an increase in "suspicious" accidents such as the recent train wreck caused by "faulty switches".

As far as any major Post Y2K problems, well...that's like piling on.

The their credit, the herd survives nicely as long as the corporate and government "shepherds" are able to maintain telling them what to think and how to feel while feeding and watering them (with a little time off for recreation thrown in every now and then.) But what happens to the herd when the brainwashing propaganda can't be broadcast 24/7 due to power/communications failures and the food and water supply line jolts to a halt? They immediately have to start thinking for themselves! YIKES! They have no experience doing this! The shepherds haven't prepared them for this! WHERE ARE THE SHEPHERDS??? TELL ME WHAT TO DO!!!

Outcome: UNKNOWN.


-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 03, 1999


"It won't be because we "doomers" panicked. We purchased when supplies were overflowing store shelves. It will be because the Pollies panicked."

That's the key phrase. We doomer-idiot-tinfoils have already done our shopping.


-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), December 03, 1999.

I had to question this statement but then I gave it some thought. Virus are appearing, some people are not getting checks, people are just bearly starting to get it.

Car titles get messed up, new credit cards are incorrect (mine was too), jury duty in 1900, New mexico residents to to expect power failures, accidental sewage discharge, Hersey's, Whirlpool, Multifoods. The problems are occuring and the frequency is increasing. Yes, we are now operationg at BITR levels of disruption.

-- flook (tflook@compuserve.com), December 05, 1999.

Snort! Examine ANY 6-month period within living memory and you'll find just as many problems as we're having now, and in more than half of such periods, even worse. We have a good, solid history of power failures worse than any we've seen recently, and worse business failures, and natural disasters, and economic downturns, and massive layoffs, you name it and the last 6 months has been more trouble-free than normal. Normal conditions are bumpy, face it. So far, things have been pretty good. NOT that I think they'll stay this way. But that's the way they are now.

Sounds like the pessimists are increasingly desperate for something, *anything*, they can blow out of proportion. How about waiting until it's no longer necessary to do this? Or are you just practicing up to be able to claim good times are really bad later, even if they aren't?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 05, 1999.

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