OT? Polly vs. Doomer : Topic, What Topic?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I find it very interesting that people in this forum seem to be polarized into two camps, when their view are essentially the same. The only real differences I see are the level of disruption, and the source.
To me, Y2K is not ONLY a computer code problem. Or a processor problem, or database, or embedded chip, or economic, or JIT, or Social, or political, etc....... It is all one in the same.
When observing something as complex as human society, you can not take one single factor out of context and expect to understand it's significance. The interconnection and interdependance and interrelation and interaction of ALL the individual components are what make up the system. Saying that "the computer problem is not that bad, but please don't panic as that may cause problems" is like saying "I can't find the forest for all the darn trees." We are talking about human beings. To attempt to exclude their reactions to an event, and the resultant impact on the event itself, is to misunderstand the very nature of the event.
Unfortunately, I am afraid that this same type of thinking prevails in the attempts of gov't and industry to fix the computer problems. They are taking non-compliant components from a non-compliant system(which they do not fully comprehend), making them compliant, and returning them to the non-compliant system. It is like taking rocks from a mud puddle, polishing them to a high shine, dropping them back into the mud, and declaring that the puddle is now crystal clear.
The problems we are facing, did not just suddenly appear. They have been steadily developing for years. The computer problems we talk about are only the top 10% of the iceburg looming in front of us. The remaining 90% is made up of econimic, political, societal, behavioral,etc... problems that some see as "OT". Failing to recognize that this is all part of a larger whole, only increases the odds of hitting the iceburg.
I appreciate the positions of some who disagree, and I understand their reasoning. But I feel that the biggest problem we face is failure to fully understand the nature of the problems we face.
Anyway, just my opinion. Worth at least what you paid for it.
-- MegaMe (CWHale67@aol.com), December 02, 1999
interesting that people in this forum seem to be polarized into two camps
Extremes attract disproportionate attention. Most people here, whether regulars or lurkers, are at neither extreme, to wit:
A true 'doomer' would have relocated by now to a rural life of subsistence agriculture (the main 'doomer' prescription, cf. Gary North). Most readers here have not done this.
- A true 'polly' would not spend time reading this forum.
-- Count Vronsky (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 02, 1999.
Good Point. We say,"Iceburg dead ahead" prepare accordingly. The government says "Icecube dead ahead" prepare accordingly.
-- UR2Blame (email@example.com), December 02, 1999.
Couldn't have said it better myself. Y2K is everything.
-- Jim (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 02, 1999.
-- MegaMe (CWHale67@aol.com), excellent post! Thanks for taking the time and thought to cogently express that :-)
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (email@example.com), December 02, 1999.
It seems to me you've hit the "preparation problem" square on the head. When you see "the big picture" you realize the problem: too many variables to draw accurate conclusions.
However, the preponderence of evidence "footsteps in the snow" shows a clear trail pointing toward disruptions and probable disasters.
-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 03, 1999.
Count Vronsky, I commend you for stating one of the most intelligent observations that I have ever seen expressed here.
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), December 03, 1999.