Ed,

I would be very interested in hearing which of your predictions from a year ago have come true, and which have not. I remember your recent comment that error rates for code remediation for Y2K fixes have mirrored previously-reported rates for other projects.

Also, if you haven't driven the back side of the Sandias from Tijeras to Santa Fe via Golden, Madrid, and Cerrillos, you should try. Stop by my house on the way and I'll show you my 3 KW solar panel setup, etc.

Bob,

-- Bob (janebob99@aol.com), December 01, 1999

Answers

Bob,

I've only got a few minutes to respond to this, as I'm in the middle of a dawn-to-midnight consulting engagement this week...

It's pretty clear that my "prediction" of serious, visible Y2K-related fiscal-year problems on 4/1, 7/1, 10/1, etc did not turn out to be accurate. There were indeed some problems, but they typically involved financial reporting systems, not day-to-day operational, transaction- processing systems ... hence, not very serious, not very visible.

Even though the Aug 22 GPS rollover phenomenon was not directly related to Y2K at all, I thought it would be a good indication of (a) how many of the GPS "systems" would be fixed in time, and (b) what kind of impact we would see from the GPS systems that were not fixed. Aside from an estimated 100,000 Japanese autos that were not updated in time, again the outcome seems to have been not very serious, not very visible. Whether this actually turns out to be a good prediction of the "real" Y2K situation remains to be seen; I suspect that a lot of other people on this forum who have pessimistic outlooks for Y2K will argue that GPS and Y2K are so unrelated that they should never have been mentioned in the same breath (or, in my case, the same book).

As for other "predictions," I'm too brain-dead at the moment to remember whether I've predicted any other significant events taking place in 1999. My outlook for 2000 itself -- as described in my "Year of Disruptions, Decade of Depression" essay -- remains unchanged. I don't claim to have any mystical insights, or direct telephone line to God; my outlook is based on the "deja vu all over again" argument that I discussed in another of my essays.

Have not had the pleasure of taking the back-side trip you've described. Maybe I'll be able to do that sometime next year, depending on how things work out -- if so, I'll drop you a note and stop by to admire your solar system

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 02, 1999.

Uncle Bob,

Okay, I give up: what's so funny about a solar system? If Bob/janebob can manage to live a civilized existence with a 3 KW solar panel, I'd like to see it. I've got an 8 KW system, plus a windmill, and it has been a lot of work rearranging the lifestyle of my energy-guzzling family to be able to live within that constraint. Maybe that's funny, too... or maybe I'll be the one who can roflmao if the lights go out in the other homes in the neighborhood...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 02, 1999.

Did the drive thru Cloud Croft across the hump and back into EP via dirt once... nice drive.

-m-

-- (...@.......), December 01, 1999.

"...if so, I'll drop you a note and stop by to admire your solar system".

Classic...roflmao

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus29&counting.down), December 02, 1999.

Ed, lighten up. Ask Bob if you can check out Uranus while you're at it. You made a funny and didn't realize it. Brain farts, I believe they're called.

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), December 02, 1999.

Quick reminder: visible impact isn't the same as actual impact. Y2K won't become sexy news until near rollover, and no one has anything to gain from publicising their own snafus.

Example: the UK Inland Revenue (apparently 100% compliant) is still in an implement-test cycle for their storage retrieval systems and are having daily outages. Who cares? Well, the effected employees, and no one much else. So it's not news.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

yeah, ed, you're not being laughed at. re-read your post. are you going to look at the guy's solar *panel* system, or does he actually have a sun and planets setup in his back yard? it's okay, you already admitted you were a little brain dead.

we all love you (well, maybe not all of the posters here), and you're allowed a brain fart now and then.

-- Cowardly Lion (cl0001@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

Ed...

Was laughing at what I thought was a hidden message in the solar system "dig". Trust me, I am a proponent and a TB2000 book owning supporter of yours. It is a sad that some people choose never to go out on a limb and express their feelings and instincts about something they are passionate about. Rather, these "arm-chair" quarterbacks lurk on the sidelines like the frightened little trolls they are and pile on at the first opportunity. Ed, I don't know you but have great respect for you for your contributions.

I guess I misinterpreted your "solar system" statement. But it sure was funny the way I saw it last night in my little "solar system".

Sincerely,

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus29&counting.down), December 02, 1999.