I have followed the discussions on this forum for several months with only a handful of comments and posts. I have been preparing for possible problems with y2k for almost a year, aware of the problem for a year and a half.

I suppose what got my butt in high gear was Ed Yardeni's Feb. 22 newsletter. As you all know, he assigned various percentage points of probability to 4 or 5 possible scenarios from bitr to a severe depression. As I remember, the BITR got a 10% probability and the deppression scenario a 5%. A severe recession was given a 40% probability. That got my attention!

There have been a series of air trafic tragedies recently. And yet, I would still put my family on an airplane to fly from Miami to Ohio to visit our parents. Why? The stakes are quiet high (my famly's lives) but odds are extremely low (one in a million? does anyone know the actual odds?). If there is only one chance in a million that my family could be killed, I ignore the danger and choose the convenience.

Would I put them on a plane if the odds were five in a hundred? definitely not! A five percent chance of losing my family in an air accident would be unacceptable to me. What about one in a hundred? As we say in Spanish, "tampoco!" I would not even get on an airplane if the chance were one in a thousand! One in a hundred thousand? maybe, maybe not.

My point is this, when I saw that Ed Yardeni considered a depression to be 5 chances in 100 (5%), and a severe recession to be 40 chances in 100, I decided that whatever the truth is about y2k, I cannot afford to bet against it and lose. I cannot afford to risk my family's health and well being at those odds -- the stakes are too high!

But you say that Ed Yardeni is a pessimist -- 5% is way too high a percentage for a depression -- there is really only a 1 in a 1000 chance that the economy will tank and go into a severe deppression!

I say, it is still to risky! Why not buy some insurance? Why not prepare some food and cash? I would not put my family on an airplane at those odds -- why should I risk being wrong about the dangers of y2k?

I have given up trying to figure out who is right and who is wrong about y2k. It does not matter to me if the pollies are right or the doomers. I prefer the polly scenario to be truthful. Nevertheless, I keep right on prepping. I am buying insurance. I am not going to risk my family on these odds. I could be wrong either way -- y2k is BITR or y2k is TEOTWAWKI. I would rather prepare and be wrong, than not prepare and be wrong. And what about you?

Ok, flame away....

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 01, 1999

Answers

Bulls-eye Jose!

A+ for critical analysis of facts and compassion for your family. I'm doing exactly the same thing.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 01, 1999.

Well spoken. And, IMHO, exactly the correct frame of mind.

I left a 6 digit a year job and moved 1500 miles because I believed the probabilities were way too high. My family means too much to me to take the chance that this was going to be just another minor course correction.

My prayers, and the prayers of my family, are with all of you!

-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 01, 1999.

Think like a polly. Act like a doomer.

-- PollyDoomer@ (Polly@Doomer.Polly), December 01, 1999.

Common sense is Y2K compliant.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), December 01, 1999.

Jose,

Like you, I have been preparing, researching and planning for over a year and a half. I have been moderately successful in convincing others to do any prepping. It's odd. Some get it right away, while you could show others hundreds of articles and they still give you blank stares.

Now, when I talk to friends who are perhaps feeling like they got "duped" into preparing (cause all they hear is good news) I tell them "nobody ever feels foolish for paying $1200 a year for car insurance, even though you never file a claim, so why should you feel differently about this?". They always seem to feel better then.

-- Dale (dale@spicreative.com), December 01, 1999.

thanks for the encouraging responses. Many days I want to pinch myself and say "this cannot be real!" Other days, I can hear the clock ticking. Without internet access, I don't think I would have stayed focused and motivated. Thanks to Gary North, Ed Yourdon, Paula Gordon, Ed Yardeni, Westergaard and many others! Whatever happens, I am as ready as I can be.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 01, 1999.

Jose... I'm like you, discovered / aware of all this mess about 1.5 yrs ago. Started preping sometime shortly after. Since then its come in squirts, but small steady progress over time has brought me to be someone prepared. I almost quit because of the "its fixed" PR... but I've always agreed that it is an insurance issue. I spend 10K dollars a year on insurance; 5k on car (have 2 teenagers), 2k on house, 3k on life insurance. Thats serious money to me when i only make abou 50-60k. Thing is I don't wine or complain when its all polly after a year of paying that 10k. Nor will i if y2k turns out to be a 3 day storm. In fact I'll yell YIPPIE!!!!!!!! if it is only a 3 day storm. But if it's nice i've got some insurance, not enought if its TEOTW, but enought if its depression times. --- You did the SANE thing. Its these fools who buy insurance for everything else and can't see the risk you saw in yardeni's acessment who are the fools. Good Y2K luck!

-- A Guy (waiting@y2kgetit.com), December 01, 1999.

thanks A Guy, It sound like there are a fair number of rational people out there who are not necessarily into Chemtrails or conspiracy theories but who think it wise to prepare. I saw a good scripture on an earlier thread:

PRO 21:20 There is precious treasure and oil in the dwelling of the wise, But a foolish man swallows it up.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 01, 1999.

Not a doomer. A realist! Good job...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 02, 1999.

Hi Jose,

I've been estimating that this will only be a 2 or 3.. (Long story).

You are right to prepare.

A. I could be wrong (something greater than a 2..). B. Preparing involves food/water primarily.. Very cheap in the US. C. There could be something else that happens (earthquake.. etc). D. Good feeling from being prepared is more comfortable than worrying and doing nothing.

Good luck Jose.

Remember to pack 'fun stuff' for the family like games, treats, etc..

Bryce

-- Bryce (bryce@nospam.com), December 02, 1999.

To borrow a very well worn phrase these days;

"Pray for the best, prepare for the worst". If you do it right, you probably won't end up with anything that you wouldn't normally use anyway at some point in time. In all actuality, where then have you lost ?

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 02, 1999.

Jose et al,

I have prepared in many ways; made a move to a rural area and a new way of life as well as in purchasing the absolute necessities. As a father and husband, the moment I understood what Y2k could be (and unfortunately firmly believe will), there was no question in my mind what needed to be done. As fathers, our ultimate responsibility is to the safety and welfare of our children. Period.

I work with people whose husbands get mad at them for 'wasting' money on preps, even when they get it at cost. We have customers that have to get their orders shipped to a neighbors house or general delivery because their husbands (and sometimes wives) will not allow them to buy any preps. We've had customers return products because their spouse 'found' them.

There are definately two 'camps' in the issue of Y2k. Neither seem to truly understand the other's position. I'll tell you though, I am proud to be a doomer. And I know I am not wrong.

-- Mark (markmic@kynd.net), December 02, 1999.

100% with you, Jose. I don't honestly believe that we're in for a crash, but the insurance premiums are so low (1% on a 1 month stock, 1.7% on a six month) and the stakes so high that you'd have to be willfully ignorant to not buy insurance. Last week, we were wacko hoarders. Now, according to Koskinen, we're prudent and responsible for buying early. When the pre-rollover buying frenzy begins, we'll be heroes for taking some pressue off of the supply chain. ;)

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), December 02, 1999.

Greetings Jose, you are in the mist of humans, such as yourself. We do not know the absolute outcome (does any human?). We will eat the food we bought, (or give them away to local soup kitchen). But will I ever, in this life time burn 50 candles? :) Will I have to set up the shower curtains, hung on a tree, with a handicapped type pottie, set in center, with plastic bags as liners? Will I have to hand out the harmonicas I bought for spirit amd humor for my family? At this point, WHO THE HELL CARES IF WE ARE WRONG!! We would NOT have done it, any other way, stakes being what they are.

-- Ever lived through a hurricane? (Stakes@insurance.com), December 02, 1999.

Eminently sensible. Even a 5% chance is plenty high enough to have lots of insurance. I don't expect much impact for most people, but I don't mind that it's getting hard to navigate around all the stuff here. At the very least, it will reduce my living expenses for quite a while.

I've been trying for a long time here to argue for a probability around 5%. It still sounds about right, and it still easily justifies preparations. Keep it up.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 02, 1999.