I originally posted the following on CNN as a chance to get people's thoughts rolling about what our future could be. I thought I'd post here as well to get some of your thoughts.. (BTW, Rick, it does mention stuff about power and nukes!!)

Sean's Doomsday Predictions (This is my worst case scenario, just because I was at the bar drinking and writing stuff down:-) but I am going to try and keep it within plausible levels..

Power will probobly hang on for a day or two, with dirty power on the rise until complete failure consumes it. This is before attacks from hacker, terrorists, and avenging countries are enetered into the factor. Once the continuous power is dropped, Nuclear meltdowns at some plants will be incurred, as Emergency Diesel Generators are likely to fail in a few cases, as well as lack of fuel reserves to keep the functioning ones in order. Fossil fuel plants will work overtime to cover the loss of Nukes (they will be shutdown after a short while) and run out of fuel as Shipping and Transport are unlikelly to deliver. As failures begin, cascading failures will shut down the rest of the grid.

Shipping and Transport are likely to be severly disrupted, by computer failures, not to mention lack of fuel from Oil producing countries. Oil tankers are frought with embedded chips that have not been remediated as well as dispatch and warehouse computers are counting on fix on failure methods. Most businesses will fail because of lack of incoming inventory.

Since well over 90% of businesses are based on Materialism, it is likely that a majority will either close or change to accomidate the newly realized needs of the consumer. A majorit of small businesses will die; thus weakening large businesses that depended on them. Companies that depend on offshore supplies will collapse. Food distribution will become prome concern, and as shipping dies, Russian style food lineups will arise.

Crime will explode at an alarming rate. 911 is likely to fail and police forces are limited even at current standards. Stores will be first to be attacked and if problems persist for any length of time, then house to house robberies are likely. Since most family and friends will want to be together, alot of home will be abandoned and ripe for the picking.

Government will become completely inefficient and once computers go down, the Government will institute Martial Law. However, it will not have a significant hold, as there are not enough military/police to enforce it on the general populace, especially at a National level.

Terrorists will likely strike key targets which will take down the powergrid (if Y2K does not). Osama Bin Laden will detonate his nukes (I assume that the 20 that the FBI knows about is less than the actual total) at multiple targets in the States as well as American Embassies abroad. Saddam is likely to retaliate for multiple attacks against him (NATO attacked him as recentely as yesterday) and he has Biological, Chemical, and even Nuclear weapons in his arsenal. Yeltsin, in his weakened condition is likely to be replaced by an Ultra Nationalist such as Vladamir Zhironovsky, and Russia will also attack the States to create Nationalist pride in Russia. Extreme Nationalism may be the only hope for Russia's society, and it has worked well for countries such as Germany during the Nazi uprisings to pull themselves out of depression and futility. China is likely to join in on Russia's attacks, but may indeed seperate from that alliance to breed their own nationalistic pride.

India and Pakistan may start a Nuclear war against themselves, as NATO will no longer be able to act as a watchdog to prevent a war between them. However, if Y2K does have a serious affect on the world, them may actually sit back to evaluate their best options instead.

The average person will try to communalize with friends, family, neighbors, even gangs as a way to protect themselves and survive.

Hospitals will be over flooded with people. Supplies will be gone very fast and folk medicine will likely have suffice. Elderly and needs people are likely to suffer the most from this, and disease will run rampant as sewage fails.

The Satellites are likely to be damaged from the solar flares, and therefore render contingency plans for power companies, usless.

Since money is going to be be unattainable (someone recently posted that they will not have the surplus cash that they were trying to get ready) banks will shut down their doors very early in the year. People who did pull out some money will only benefit for the short term, since a majority of the population did not prepare, and a bartering system is likely to become the main form of commerce.

The affects of Y2K will become apparent almost immediatly at the turnover, and will likely last for years (to various degrees). However, human resiliance will come through in new and unpredictable ways. But the immediate future will be very grim.

This concludes Sean's Alcohol Induced: Worst Case Scenario. But please note, it would not take too much to make the above true; just a little terrorism in the mix would do it. I can't wait to read other ideas on how our future looks...

-- Anonymous, December 01, 1999

Answers

Holy smokes, Sean! I sincerely hope you are wrong, but fear that, to a large part, you may be right. God help us all if even half of your scenario comes true.

-- Anonymous, December 01, 1999

"Hospitals will be over flooded with people. Supplies will be gone very fast and folk medicine will likely have suffice. Elderly and needs people are likely to suffer the most from this, and disease will run rampant as sewage fails."

====================================

I could not agree with you more on you worst case scenerio. As the Safety Officer and Director of Security for a large healthcare organization in the N.E., I am worried.

As for my hospital. We will be fully staffed from 6 pm on New Year's Eve untill we determine that everything is going to be alright. Security starts 12 hour shifts with additional posts 24 hours prior to that. Every department manager, director, VP and our CEO and President will be on hand New Year's Eve. The clinical departments are staffing up, patient loads are being reduced as low as possible, and the Physicians have been told that there must be one Attending, the Sr. Resident, and two other Residents frome every service on campus New Year's Eve. All others are on call. We are preparing for as many possible problems as we can think of, and then some. Weather will be a big factor.

From my perspective, even without the possible computer problems, New Year's Eve 1999 brings with it the very real possibilities of civil unrest as well as the threat of domestic and foreign terrorism. And, I truly believe that if all hospitals are not prepared, and have the staff on hand and in condition to work, then we could see some very bad outcomes.

Why do I think this? Look at what happens when a sports team wins a Super Bowl or a World Series. Riots, property damage, etc. Look at what has been happening in Seattle over the last few days. Now, as this is the biggest party any of us have or will ever see in our lifetimes. What do you think the millions of inebreated citizens are going to do? All it will take are a few broken windows, intentional or not, and watch the mob mentality take over. You could not pay me enough to be in Times Square on New Year's Eve.

Due to the sheer volumn of party goers, lets double the number of MVAs, fights, and assaults seen on a typical New Year's Eve. The Police are going to be very busy.

As we all know,there are several apocalyptic groups that believe this is the end times. Even if they have to "get the ball rolling" so to speak. Several groups have been deported from Israel within the last few weeks because they were planning violence in Jerusalem on New Year's Eve. They believe that it will take a violent act to bring on Jesus' return. Where were they sent? Back home to the United States.

Let's not forget the terrorist groups, both home grown such as Christian Idenity, and the forgien groups such as those led by Bin Laden. This would be a perfect opportunity to make a big strike against the United States. Any one of the major cities in the United States that is sponsoring a New Year's Eve celebration could be a target.

Some people will say that I am paranoid. Well, maybe a little. But, human nature being what it is, I am glad my hospital is preparing for the worst, but praying for the best.

Martha

-- Anonymous, December 02, 1999

I was also going to mention that Telecommunications were going to go down, and also that the Stock Market was going to crash, but I think that by the fourth Guinness, I forgot to bother..

When I was writing it, I tried to keep limit the amount of damage that Y2K would do because it is still relatively unpredictable. But adding the human element into the mix, really makes it all sound very scary. I think that terrorism is guaranteed around the turnover; the degree of which is the only thing left debatable. And I have to agree also that riotting in the streets is more than likely, as people become idiots when the celebrate en masse now adays.

I tried to write those predictions while trying to keep it relatively tongue in cheek, but I fear that it all came out too plausible in the end. Let's pray that we can read these predictions next year and laugh at my naivety..

-- Anonymous, December 02, 1999