In my thinking of " how bad will this be", I've been forced to the conclusion that there is no middle ground - it's either a BITR or TEOTWAWKI. It seems to me that an analysis that concludes a middle of the road scenario is plagued by "linear" thinking, yet nature, or systems, are anything but linear. Look what happened to GM with a strike at ONE plant. Or imagine the railroads not delivering coal on time to the power plants. Either that particular industry can weather that problem (a BITR), or it can't. Now imagine more than one "show stopper" of a problem occuring simultaneously. In my experience in IT, the problems plagued by more than one serious error occuring simultaneously were MUCH more than twice as hard to fix or get around than just one.

The real issue is "just how fault tolerant sre our systems", and what level of faults does it take before we're USCWAP. In my experience, it doesn't take much.

-- ivan (ivan1776@ivnet.net), November 30, 1999

Answers

Ivan:

To underscore your point, let's invite the "middle-of-the-roaders" to provide us with a plausible scenario of a "middle-of-the-road" Y2k outcome. Give it your best shot. Does any part of such a scenario hold up logically or appear probable?

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), November 30, 1999.

Ivan,

I agree. It will either remain a BITR (what we are CURRENTLY experiencing) or will quickly deteriorate into TEOTWAWKI. No in- between.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), November 30, 1999.

As time goes on, I have less of an opinion as to what will happen. I am totally mind-numbed, but still buying canned corn and beans. We have bought our red wagon, our last major necesssity. The rest is catch as catch can. I could use a few things and will get them if possible. But understand what is going on? NO! I do not!!!!

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 30, 1999.

---ivan, this is REALLY interesting. I second and third the request. Let's hear some possible scenarios from the middle of the roaders, and some why's, too. I'd like to see something to be happier about, right now. thanks, BITR'rs!

zoggus curiousae

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), November 30, 1999.

I picked up two publications by FEMA that deal with "redistribution according to deep pockets principles" in case of "societal unrest". Pretty scary. Sorry I don't have exact titles, am at a stage in preps where I can't remember what I have or where I put it. Will look harder if anyone's interested. BTW, I GI in early '97 and haven't changed my analysis one bit. I have a Ph. D. in Electrical Engineering and have been working with complex systems for decades. My assesment remains 9.5.

-- ivan (ivan1776@ivnet.net), November 30, 1999.

Hey Doc,zog,etc I sure ain't no computer expert but Yourdon and Yardeni have done pretty well explainin'. Or don't they know anything?

-- Chief (sealres@chitown.com), November 30, 1999.

Ed Yourdon's essay, "A Year of Disruptions, a Decade of Depression" mentioned something about this. I wonder what HIS estimation of 'middle of the road' is? I also am mind-numbed and I've only been at this since late February, and just discovered this forum in the last week or so. These people who have been at this for years are truly admirable - - the Roleigh Martins, Gary Norths, Bruce Websters, Ed Yardenis, John Westergaards, larry Sangers, Cory Yamasakis, and even Peter de Yager (what is he saying these days, or is he being feted on Wall Street?) and especially Ed Yourdon.

If you're lurking, Ed, can you give us some references to your voluminous material orsome new ideas on what 'middle of the road' means to you? How big are the bumps in that road?

-- Constance A. Iversen (hive @gte.net), November 30, 1999.

Another Great Depression just might be "middle of the road".

Once heard someone connected with L.A. emergency preparadeness suggesting that in any big city if it was more than a 1 or 2, then it jumped to a 10 (because of social unrest).

But my crystal ball is buried somewhere - probably under mountains of rice and beans, so who knows what the future will bring.

As Cory says... the world works in strange and wonderful ways, and it will soon break in strange and wonderful ways.

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), November 30, 1999.

Yep, It's a steep bell-curve.

-- wave (theflood@is.comming), November 30, 1999.

I imagine a middle of the road scenario for Y2K would be a real meat grinder--much like the Iran-Iraq war of the '80s. The United States would become THAT strife torn region; complete with killing fields, urban battle grounds, warlords and their milita men, starving refugees everywhere, and death squads in "nice areas" keeping order.

Not exactly the best of both worlds.

Give that Y2K will hit all at the same time, I think a fast collapse to anarchy (10+) is the most likely out come if things turns out to be more than a bump in the road.

-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), November 30, 1999.

The shrinking of the middle ground is both dangerous and unnecessary.

Clearly, in order for any 'middle ground' scenario to play out, confidence of the masses must be maintained in the face of at least some serious problems.

Here are some thoughts on some possibilities. Let me be clear though, I am not predicting any of the following will happen. I am only suggesting possible scenarios where Y2K is serious but far from the end of the world:

Basic infrastructure / iron triangle comes through with relatively few serious problems. Yes, there are some notable exceptions 'over there'

Banks come through rollover fine. A tiny few have real problems and the FDIC steps in and serves its function. (think small, isolated failures) Eventually, most of the depositor's money is returned sans interest.

Telephone service remains mostly intact - though some small areas have an extended outages. Maybe one larger outage. Telephone servive to some foreign countries becomes unavailable for a period of time. Some general degradation in phone service but not bad enough to prevent people from paying their bill.

Power industry comes through with only a slightly higher rate of outages next year. Energy prices rise.

US Postal service does not collapse but mail is a lot slower getting to its intended destination.

A middle ground scenario would necessarily include moderate to severe economic impact. A lot of people loose a lot of money in the market. A lot of people out of work. But we've survived such periods in our past without coming apart at the seams. We got a good track record surviving such times intact so I have to assume we could do it again. Then again, I'm certainlty no expert on markets and the psychology of the investment community.

Some companies die. A few die quickly - mostly those small businesses with a single customer who's gone MIA for an extended period. Other companies die a slow lingering 'death of a thousand cuts.'

A few more serious incidents. Some deaths - though few enough that it can reasonably be argued to be 'an isolated incident(s)'.

Throw in a few deaths due to lack of: (choose one or more: power, telephone service, reduced availabilty of emergency response personnel). But not on spectacular scale.

An increase in suicides.

An increase in road rage.

A few quickly contained riots similar in size to the LA riots.

A clogged court system.

Some lesser wars heat up. Many die as a result - somewhere 'over there'.

No mass starvation or disease though some people may not be able to eat the way they used to.

Water may need to be trucked into a few areas for several weeks at a time. People may not be able to take showers but they will at least get clean drinking water.

A few people are forced to leave their homes due to sewage backups. Then they have to fight the insurance companies for payment because Y2K is not an insurable event. A few win. Most loose.

Possibly a surge in terrorist incidents. Some could be worse than OKC.

JIT inventory hiccups world-wide. Many things take lots more time.

Oil imports are reduced - but not by 20% - maybe in the 3-10% range. Chief impact is on gas prices. Some inflation as a result. More carpooling. Less sightseeing.

Some of the less stable governments around the world fall but all nuclear-enabled nations manage to keep their missles in their silos and smiles on their faces.

Shortages or unavailability of many imported goods. Some luxury goods are unavailable at any price. But all strategic goods (e.g. chromium, et al.) flow at semi-adequet levels.

Some minor rationing of some things either on a local or national level. No one dies as a result.

A degradation in medical services. Some people die as a result.

A small but noticable increase in infant mortality rates. A few people die as a result.

Some pharmaceuticals become unavailable. Some alternatives don't work as good. In a few instances, there is no alternative. A few people die as a result. Others are simply inconvenienced.

The food supply becomes less safe. While most things are fine, a few nasty incidents occur and a few people die as result.

Just how much water can this boat of ours take on before it sinks? I honestly don't know. Some, at least. A fair amount I think.

Again, I'm not predicting any of this. The point of such idle speculation is to realize that many bad things can happen without civilization falling apart. But none of them sound like much fun to me and many are easily avoided if we act now. Thus I have advocated and encouraged prudent preparations not because I seek the end of the world but because I seek its continuity - with as few bumps as possible.

In conclusion, I'm not certain that the middle ground is gone, but I would agree that it is narrowing. This is as dangerous as it is unnecessary. We might have risen to the occassion. We were surely capable.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 01, 1999.

-- h (t@m.l), December 01, 1999.

Arnie:

Thanks very much for giving us a look at possible "middle-of-the-road scenarios". The shocking aspect of this mental exercise is that if JUST ONE OR TWO of these scenarios fail to achieve middle-of-the-road status, the world could easily be plunged into a multi-year economic decline that will almost certainly result in social chaos from the millions who will be out of work and without any possible governmental or private assistance. So, IMHO, it would require almost all of these scenarios to occur in order to avoid TEOTWAWKI. Given what we know about Y2k preparations with a few weeks to go, what are the odds that we will escape a major calamity?

-- Dr. Roger Altman (rogaltman@aol.com), December 01, 1999.