Bradley Perret assesses the airline industry (Y2k)

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http://www.canoe.ca/ReutersNews/BIZFEATURE-Y2K-AIRLIN.html

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November 30, 1999

With just over a month to go before the new year, Reuters is taking a look at how the millennium bug problem may affect various sectors. In the story below, Bradley Perrett assesses the airline industry:

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Choose one: (A) Take a flight somewhere on New Year's Eve, an experience that might seem unattractive even without the worry of a Y2K computer fault. (B) Go to a party. Not many people are choosing (A). "I don't know of any airline that is keeping a full schedule that night," said J.P. Morgan aviation analyst Chris Avery, who estimated airlines planned to operate only 25 to 35 percent of their usual schedules because of weak bookings. There are reasons to be concerned about flying over the new year, analysts say, but not because computers in the plane or air traffic control systems might go haywire as the last two digits of the date click from 99 to 00. The real risk, they say, is delay: sitting in a terminal, waiting to board a plane that is grounded because of a fault on the ground, perhaps in the baggage system. "Apart from the fact that I intend to go to a party, I wouldn't be in the air at that time because I would be afraid of the check-in delays," said David Learmount, safety editor for industry weekly Flight International. "If something goes wrong it will be on the ground." AIRCRAFT SYSTEMS SAID IMMUNE The computers aboard airliners do not care what day it is, say experts, ridiculing the idea of planes dropping from the sky as the clock strikes midnight. Most Boeings do not even have a computer in the loop between the pilot and the control surfaces on the wing and tail. And while most Airbuses do, Learmount said the software took no notice of the time, let alone the date. To prove the point, a Lufthansa Airbus A319 loaded with journalists flew last month with its clocks set to register the New Year during the flight. "There was absolutely no problem," said a Lufthansa spokesman. Other airlines have tried the same tactic with Boeings, and also found no unusual behavior. And even if there were problems, pilots can fly airliners without the computers, using back-up systems. OLD-STYLE AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL AVAILABLE Airlines have taken a close interest in national authorities' efforts to protect air traffic control systems from Y2K failures but seem satisfied that their routes are safe. "There are no no-fly areas," said a spokeswoman for British Airways Plc, which bases its view on a report from the International Air Transport Association, the airlines' club. "If we had any doubts, we would cancel our flights, but there are no reasons to do so." Besides, analysts say an air traffic control organization could easily fall back on manual systems if, for example, its radar failed at midnight. "There will be so few airplanes up there that handling air traffic control by the old methods will be very, very easy," said Learmount. The old-fashion system, called procedural control, involves little more than air crews reporting their positions, courses and speeds -- known from onboard systems -- and controllers comparing that information to ensure that no one is on a collision course. Even a complete loss of electrical power would cause surprisingly little trouble, said Learmount, who said it had happened three times in the past five years in southeastern England, some of the busiest airspace in the world. How did the system cope? Battery power kept the radios working while the controllers progressively emptied the sky, canceling takeoffs and sending inbound planes elsewhere. MEANWHILE, BACK AT THE TERMINAL None of that means flying in the first few days of next year will be reliable and convenient, because getting aircraft into the air relies on so many computers on the ground, including those of suppliers. "The customer has to be aware there will be some lack of comfort," said the Lufthansa spokesman. "Maybe heating will not be working, or airport doors not opening, or there might be a fault with the luggage system." A problem need not even occur at the airport to keep passengers grounded. "Say the caterer's PC system, miles from the airport, fails," supposed J.P. Morgan's Avery. In that case, the airline could have an absolutely safe aircraft that would be going absolutely nowhere because the truck had not arrived with the shrimp risotto. Avery expected business travelers, in particular, to shun air travel until perhaps the middle of January. "The average business traveler simply does not want to plan a trip knowing there is a high probability of a three- or four-hour delay," he said.

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), November 30, 1999


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