## interesting article on calculating the probability of having power, bank and telecommunication failuresgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |

I searched all over daily to find the best articles and boy is this an interesting article on the probability of having power, bank and telecommunication failures. Please link

http://www.igc.apc.org/gk97/gk97.gkd97/entries/1777964488.html

The author uses mathematics to multiply the probabilities, cosidering the interdependencies of various institutions and the domino effects. You might find it stimulating. Looks like there is a 50/50 chance at least one of the 3 triangles will fail in 2,000. And that's the most conservative calculation. I'd put it at 70% chance.

-- Watchman (watch@foryou.com), November 30, 1999

The article is dated Dec 101998and admits to being based on large unknowns.PS... "Arial Marketing" (Think "Mike Adams") -

To turn a phrase... "Nuf said".

-- CD (not@here.com), November 30, 1999.

It's interesting to read through ancient (by Y2k standards) material like this stuff though. It's enlightening to see how the many "theories" and "TEOTWAWKI predictions" originated and were hyped. For example, the above article and (others) factor-in such unknowns as GPS failures, solar flares causing total collapse of telecommunications, the mid-november satellite destroying meteor shower, bank runs, panic hoarding, the likelihood of massive power failures, etc. etc. etc.Paul Davis said it best... TEOTWAWKI just ain't what it used to be.

-- CD (not@here.com), November 30, 1999.

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