Everyone thank Rainbow for digging this one up. I just did the translation with Babbelfish. With a little minor editing so things make a "little" more sense. Some german sentences and slang just DO NOT Translate and I am not correcting all switched sentences, etc..

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Small and medium-size operations are in acute danger

By Nadine Oberhuber

Whichever the Bavarian Medium size company produces, up to the change of year, it all smells like cheese. What comes after it, nobody knows. The management of the cheese factory, which would not like to have their name published, asks itself already today whether its enterprise also runs after midnight if the milk still takes it's used way, whether the machines run, as programs, and whether at the end of the production round loaves roll of the band.

In the best case only a few chips will fail without lasting consequences caused by the millennium the bug. In the worst case all machines stand still in the production hall. Upon the possible effects of the millenium bug error one speculates lively at present, in addition, people look at it analytically. Although the number of the crashes is not calculable anywhere, Chambers of Commerce and market researchers want to know, on which consequences the economy must count. Three studies come to a corresponding result: Twelve per cent of all German companies are acutely endangered and probably will not survive the rollover. The market study company Gartner Group, the Gerling company as well as the IHK Cologne found that out.

With country widely 3.5 million enterprise would be called: Well 350,000 always closes their gates. If the failure wave rolls only times by the country, then it produces a million-strong wave of new unemployed people onto the market. Or it tears equal the whole economy into the downward vortex. So far is only one horror scenario. But one, which is not at all so improbable. For months the more respectable Analysten with specification held back itself, circulated only wild rumors. Why now the to two places fall forecast?

The number of the feared bankrupcies is considered meanwhile as relatively secured. Gerling took a representative panel of 7300 companies under the magnifying glass, and the Cologne IHK asked all attached 100,000 enterprises. Corresponding the studies come on the critical ratio from 12 to 13 per cent.

Since 1996 of Germany millenniumsaktivste Chamber of Commerce in Cologne observes, how their companies with the thousands of years conversion of the computers hold it. " we announced only bad numbers up to the spring, then there is now dramatic ", says business guide Elizabeth Slapio. The time pushes: Between 39 and 45 per cent of all operations are not sufficiently prepared for the year 2000. Some of still are about testing their systems. Others consider still, from which chip they are to roll the re-equipment up. And nevertheless decided 15 per cent to make itself no thoughts over the date branch.

Even quite small enterprises can put the large lamely

Particularly in the middle class and in smaller enterprises this adjustment is common. Each second managing director regards here the problem as " inconsequentially ", then the Hermes has credit insurance company AG in an inquiry under average-modification-learns found out. Even them however bird bunch tactics could become the calamity.

" who does not make, can nothing at all by hundred percent assume he gets, reminds a problem " Slapio. If it is only the telephone system, which cuts the operation off of the external world, or which puts building services, the elevators lamely and doors blocked, it is the stock management, which hoards commodity involuntarily, or the EDP system, which ate all data and from nothing more gives.

Meeting can do it in the long run everyone, " even the enterprises, which say now of itself that they are jahrtausendfest, explain " the business guide of the IHK Cologne. They are only one particle in the chain between raw material supplier and customer. If the cheese factory no more portions can no more supermarkets pack, because the paper does not come from printering, or can the carrier supply, because the trucks strike, late bankruptcy is not impossible also for the millenniumsvorbereiteten milk processing plant in Bavaria. " even the smallest enterprise can put a large according to the David against Goliath principle lamely ", says Slapio. Thus a bankruptcy wave would know also over the ring " absolutely endangers 13 per cent " outside sets to pull, is not only afraid the IHK Cologne.

The prognosis is considered as country wide portable. Other chambers raised, follow no own numbers however the estimates of the second largest, because of Cologne are considered 100,000 operations as representative mixture. In the largest IHK, that for Munich and Upper Bavaria, acknowledges Juergen throat for the 200,000 members: " 15 to 20 per cent becomes crude problems wars. Even large with own departments for information technology is not yet Jahr-2000- geruestet ". Get correct antinode bulge pain he, if he of the small and middle enterprises think, which nevertheless constitute two thirds of the members in the surface chamber Upper Bavaria. Those shrank from the troubles of the conversion, because they were afraid high costs. The addition outputs for chip search, exchange and umprogrammierung would usually be situated " in the four-digit and thus bearable area ", enumerate the chambers. But want of it many nothing to know. Instead - in such a way it seems - they accept the bankruptcy danger. Throat: " there runs me the cold grey the back down. *** I think they ment the sweat was running down his back *** LOL More calmly give themselves the roof federation, the German industrie and commercial day (DIHT) in Bonn. " if those in Cologne found out in such a way, then ", determines press speaker Peter Blume will be correct also in such a way calmly. Also for the 2.7 million operations of the DIHT. Many companies are dependent due to small manufacturing depth strongly on suppliers and due to forced Just in time production " today many more susceptibly " than still before a few years, complete flower. But it does not hold it for tragic that of Germany are not prepared operations to 35 per cent for the arrival of the double zero.

Thus the republic in international comparisons is past far. Although it let itself cost the re-equipment in the meantime billion-totals - estimations go from up to 150 billion -, ranks the Federal Republic on a safety level with Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, Hungary, Portugal or Peru. A study of the Gartner Group means. Still more badly would be almost only China, Russia and Bulgaria there. However countries seem well prepared such as Denmark, Greece, Israel or the Bermudas and the USA European-wide state Germany two statistics: those of the most probable computer failures and the estimated damage totals - masterful 57 billion Marks are added us.

The DIHT refers meanwhile to the good preparation of individual industries. Like that are nevertheless prepared insurance, Finanzdienstleister and banks above average. With agriculture, guest trade and in the branch of giant retail trade does not look the position however long so rosy. " our thing was it to activate the topic and we fulfilled, commentate this function " flower. " around the remainder the companies themselves must worry. Those are finally no small children. " There is only small enterprises, which need apparently still Nachhilfe. Their roof federation acknowledges with the note: " who changed, has slept and thus no more right over to the existence. " The market possesses thus electronic strengthforce forces.

Who did not begin yet to look possible errors up in the lasting one and a half months hardly still another overview to get or no spare parts and programmers. But it enormous calculations are safe: At least the double to three-way ones as still one year ago must berappen, which reequips now only, estimates IHK Geschaeftsfuehrerin Elizabeth Slapio. It will not create the conversion in this year nevertheless no more. Therefore the Chamber of Commerce Munich guesses/advises to emergency planning. Hard and software should be taken an inventory, data be printed out, stocks filled up and important suppliers asked.

Also the Upper Bavarian operation, with which all cheese is, adjusts to a failure. It gecheckt most of its systems and incorrect chips replacement to leave. But with many agitate -, mixing and coolers are not to be constituted manufacturers or processor constituents any longer. Tests does not want the enterprise their thousands of years firmness beforehand. A time journey would be too risky in the year 2000. Who knows finally whether the stopped machines could be brought back to running? The factory rather makes the sample only in January on the example and lets up to then the machines on full speed run. Silvester are emptied the tanks and then to the New Year test run with water instead of with milk fully to run. In this way the manufacturer produces no cheese, but at least also no committee.

Also an obligation break took into account the manufacturermanufacturer manufacturer. But it produces already today in great quantities cheese on waste dump. As three to four weeks the aside put loaves are to regard the suppliers in an emergency with mood. Presupposed the fact that they not already stink up to then to the sky and also after Silvester still holds the cooling, which promises the temperature indication.

) with the Autor/DIE TIME 1999 NR. 46 ALL rights reserved.

Sorry, I couldn't translate as much as I wanted. Got a call from work.

-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), November 29, 1999

Answers

Hmmm... looking at the final paragraph of translated text, I must say that I agree that this really could be "an emergency with mood." After all, what can you expect if there are "great quantities cheese on waste dump," which is probably what causes a "stink up to then to the sky" which leads to "Silvester still holds the cooling."

Sounds like a pretty serious situation. Better add cheese to the prep list...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), November 29, 1999.

Full translation of the article:

"Twelve per cent of all German companies are acutely endangered and probably will not survive the rollover."

That's more than a bump in the autobahn.

-- Me (me@me.me), November 29, 1999.

Laughing *too* hard (and needing it!)

-- Me (me@me.me), November 29, 1999.

Ed, you are too much! LOLROTFLMAOLOLTWP

-- der hole thingk kerblooey (ven@cheez.stinkenzermulch), November 30, 1999.

Oh Gawd! It's so funny... and equally... it's not funny!

We're in trouble... globally.

Vat a mess!

Got slightly burnt toast with that cheese?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 30, 1999.

For us here in Europe a grim picture emerges. Germany, France (see thread below), Italy, Eastern Europe.... The net is closing. It seems nobody here cares though. Prepping is considered crazy and nearly no information is available, except for some government spin. The spin has little effect because people don't know about the problem anyway. I'm lurking here for over 18 months now. I'm very grateful for this place. Internet is the information life-line.

Thanks

Toos.

-- Toos (Milk_honeu_1999@yahoo.com), November 30, 1999.

Toos speak truth. In the UK there has been no pubic debate at all about Y2K. It's just a complete non-issue, we don't even have a proto-Koskinen. What we did get was a psuedo-government booklet saying "What is Y2K? Well, it's nothing. We guarantee that all is well. Debate over." with a very, very small print disclaimer "Guarantee is not guaranteed."

It's wierd. We do have - IMO - the best news service in the world, but they won't tackle Y2K. I guess it's too big, too abstract and basically too dull.

31 days.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 30, 1999.

Can you imagine, an industrial juggernaut like Germany, not taking Y2K seriously? What does that say for the rest of Europe which is supposed to be fairly well prepared?

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), November 30, 1999.

Such disconnect! Someone call Oprah and tell her all is NOT well.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 30, 1999.

***Y2K's CLOSE; WE'RE STILL NOT READY***

-- just the facts (truly@toast.burnt), November 30, 1999.