Alaskans build Y2K stockpiles

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

http://www.adn.com/stories/T99112806.html

Sunday, November 28, 1999

Alaskans build Y2K stockpiles

Heating, light supplies in demand

By DOUG O'HARRA

Daily News reporter Worried that the Y2K computer bug might infect their utilities and leave them with the chills, several hundred Anchorage-area residents have been wrapping their families in a safety blanket of 12-gauge rolled steel.

Greer Tanks sold about twice as many of its 300- and 500-gallon fuel tanks as usual during October. This past week, crews have been welding and painting 20 of the maroon above-ground tanks every day, general manager Stephan Holms said.

"We're working longer hours to keep up with the demand," Holms said.

The same brisk trade has hit the home generator business, where certain models have sold out and consumers must wait up to three weeks for an appointment with an electrician to install switches.

"It's been unbelievable," said Jim Gallagher, superintendent at Redi Electric. "We're probably hooking up two to five a day. And it's been that way for months."

"People are wanting backup power," added Patrick Doran, a sales rep at Pacific Detroit Diesel-Allison's local office. "They're paranoid that come Dec. 31, the power is going to go down, and they don't want to be stuck."

As the rollover to 2000 approaches, tanks and generators have become the most dramatic examples of a local miniboom that seems sharply focused on providing basic antidotes to Alaska's winter: heat and light.

Greer Tanks, in Anchorage since 1949, normally markets its $360 and $475 tanks to new homeowners or businesses that use heating oil or diesel, Holms said. "The Valley is a big market for us."

But this year has been different: people with existing homes, people installing backup heat. Holms has no doubt that it's Y2K.

BATTERIES IN DEMAND

"I don't believe in Y2K, but fine. I'll sell them the tanks."

Other store operators report strong demand for extra batteries and storage containers, flashlights and kerosene lamps. Some dealers in firewood and fuel say they're swamped.

At the same time, people don't appear to be buying unusual amounts of food, blankets or clothing, according to several Anchorage stores. There's no boom reported for specialized survival gear, no sudden demand for ammo.

What's up?

Maybe it's not the end of civilization that rattles Anchorage. It's the prospect of frozen pipes and stumbling around in the dark.

The 2000 computer glitch has its roots in the way programmers once kept track of the calendar. To save space in computer memory, many systems recorded the date with the last two digits of the year. This shortcut means some computers could confuse 2000 with 1900.

As a result, a multibillion-dollar industry in new computer equipment and software upgrades has swept the world. In Alaska, government, utilities and oil companies have spent an estimated $100 million correcting and checking computers, according to Bob Poe, the state's Y2K coordinator and commissioner of administration.

Anchorage-area utilities all insist that residents shouldn't fear Y2K-triggered outages. Chugach Electric Association, for instance, found no computer problems that, by themselves, would have interrupted or shut down power, utility officials say. To be doubly sure, they all report extra staffing and detailed contingency plans for any unforeseen problems on New Year's Eve.

But many people just aren't convinced.

SOME DON'T BELIEVE UTILITIES

Some don't believe the utility companies could ever be certain that they have thoroughly cleansed their computer systems. Others say the Y2K bug got them thinking about the potential for long power outages caused by natural occurrences, like earthquakes or volcanic eruptions or winter storms.

It's really just prudence, said Gallagher of Redi Electric.

"I'd say 25 percent of the people I deal with, their concern is the earthquake and not Y2K. They're thinking of what may be. It's disaster preparedness."

When wind knocked over beetle-killed trees on the Anchorage Hillside last month, the power was out at some locations for more than a day. That outage impressed Jacque Repp, a Hillside resident since 1981. Her lights and heat were down from 8 p.m. Friday to 2 a.m. Sunday, she said.

So Repp, assistant principal at Central Middle School of Science, told her husband that she wanted a generator installed as soon as possible.

Why now, after 18 years?

"Because of Y2K," Repp said. "I have to feel secure now. I'm going to err on the side of caution."

Unfortunately, their favorite electrician told them it would be a three-week wait. "And that's just until they can come and take a look," she said.

Al and Dolores Stokes already had a generator, mainly out of worry that a big temblor will someday shake down utilities. With the Y2K deadline looming, they decided to upgrade their Lake Otis-area home to a 6.6 KW Yamaha model with a battery starter.

"Even though Chugach Electric says there's nothing to be concerned about and Enstar says there's nothing to be concerned about, anything can happen," Dolores Stokes said. "We're concerned that our house could freeze up and therefore we could lose our house."

Spending $4,000 to $5,000 to safeguard the investment in their home just seemed like a good idea, Stokes said.

"Our philosophy is you prepare for the worst and hope for the best," she said. "In this case, we're preparing for the worst."

GENERATOR BUYERS MUST WAIT

Often generator purchasers are longtime residents like the Stokes who have considered buying one for years, according to dealers. With the approach of Y2K, they calculate the relative cost of a generator vs. repairing frozen pipes and they decide it's time to act, said John Haxby, owner of Waukesha Alaska, a generator dealer in Anchorage for 27 years.

Depending on the size and complexity, total cost of a new model and installation can range from $1,200 to $6,000 or more.

"I'd say business is up 20 percent over what it would be," Haxby said. "Homeowner-style inquiries, people shopping, is probably up 100 percent."

Demand has meant a three-week backlog, with manufacturers demanding payment in advance, Haxby added.

"The manufacturers right now are saying, 'Look, don't call us and tell us you want something unless you get your checkbook out.' "

Alaska Industrial Hardware is back-ordered on generators too, purchasing agent Scott Sugden said. Sales of batteries are up and are accelerating. For instance, Sugden expects to order an extra 20,000 AA batteries over the regular 200,000 the stores normally sell.

"We're probably going to be up over 25 percent," Sugden said. "They're saying, 'Get your orders in early, because we are experiencing delays in getting them out.' "

Some firewood cutters say they're seeing a surge in new orders. One longtime wood dealer said she's gotten a flurry of calls from people ordering just one cord.

"A lot of people I've talked to this week have said, 'I just want to have it for Y2K,' " said Beverly Walton, whose husband, Thomas, supplies Point MacKenzie birch to about 35 or 40 customers each winter.

"These are people who have never ordered before," she added. "You get new people every year, but this, for me, is a little different. These people are saying that I don't want to be caught and freeze."

NO RUSHES ON FOOD

But what's intriguing about all this heat over generators, batteries and split wood is what's being ignored. People don't seem to be going after food or specialized emergency supplies with the same enthusiasm, according to merchants at several stores.

Other than increased interest in batteries and containers, Eagle Hardware hasn't seen unusual commerce, manager Brady Wilson said. Costco hasn't experienced anything out of the ordinary either, assistant manager Dick Snyder said.

Of course, Snyder added, Costco always sells food in bulk. "Anybody going out the door could be perceived as getting ready for Y2K," he said.

Sales of camping food, outdoor gear or even weapons don't appear to be extraordinary, store officials said. REI sold a bit more freeze-dried food this summer but nothing dramatic, said Pete Citrano, a store manager.

"The only thing that probably has been affected is (kerosene-burning) Aladdin Lamps," said Mountain View Sports Center manager Willie Morris. "They're sold out totally for this year."

There appears to be no widespread hoarding of food. "If it's been going on at all, it's been negligible," said Richard Near, general manager for Safeway and Carrs in Alaska.

But some people are stocking up.

At Natural Pantry, a south Anchorage natural food store, customers have recently taken a sharp interest in beans, rice, wheat berries and flour, sprouting seeds and powdered foods.

"It's just in this last two weeks, bulk things have been going out of here like crazy," owner Vikki Solberg said. "Lots of those real basic staples, kind of the ones you might think your great-great-grandparents would have had in their pantry."

Several customers have said they plan to give bags of wheat or beans to their relatives as Christmas presents. "That's kind of a little different twist," she said.

Eagle Enterprises, a survival equipment specialist, has also seen interest in cans of staples and dried foods with long shelf lives, president Shane Langland said. Also popular are hand-cranked radios and flashlights. And they've sold out of a portable toilet called the Throne, he said.

But there's no surging demand for the firm's survival packs, which contain supplies to keep a designated number of people alive for a certain number of days.

Langland said many of his customers, by definition, aren't prone to impulse buying. "They're actually already prepared," he said.

And perhaps it's too early for people to act on panic, pointed out several store officials. After all, New Year's Eve is still seven weeks off.

"As far as food goes, I think of this like a holiday," Near said. "Typically, people will crash the stores three days before a holiday."

* Reporter Doug O'Harra can be reached at doharra@adn.com

-- Uncle Bob (UNCLB0B@Tminus32&counting.down), November 28, 1999

Answers

Chechakos most likley Uncle Bob. The sourdoughs wouldn't be caught dead without a cache of MRTK (meals ready to kill) Ahhh Homer, Moose Pass, Chugiak, Wassilla, Mantenuska Valley, Seward, I can feel the snap of Alaskan snow under foot right now. Folks like Seal Skin Charlie, Copper River Dan, Denali Debbie, oops forget that one, sorry Deb! [g] Anybody listening that has had a front row seat for the 'lights' this year? How's the solar max show?

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), November 29, 1999.

The solar max has been postponed. New data show the peak will more likely occur in the summer NOT in January. At least that worry should be less.

-- look at the data (facts@NIST.there), November 29, 1999.

We both know that they are just guessing, in fact if we had been in the wrong geomagnetic effective position during some of the recent events, we could easily have experienced communications problems or worse. It appears the meteor storm called Leonoids may have caused problems with a satelite system that monitors the sun - SOHO snip- region 8781 developed quickly and has minor M class flaring potential. Region 8782 developed slowly and could produce C flares.

SOHO is currently experiencing a problem. No data from the spacecraft will be available until the problem is resolved.

Flares and CMEs

8 C flares and 4 M flares were recorded on November 28. Region 8771 produced - end snip

The DOD is concerned with Solar Max, so I think I'll keep an eye out for problems incoming from this theater, so as to distinguish the difference between provocateurs.

-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), November 29, 1999.


If I lived in a totally unforgiving climate, I'd be ready for the "unexpected" too.

Burr!

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 29, 1999.


Lived in Alaska 30 years. If you like snow, you'll LOVE Valdez! 50 feet average snowfall per winter. Snow on the ground in the shady places for 9 months out of the year. Electricity undependable. Poweroutages frequent in the winter. I hate to tell those guys in Valdez, but it's a strategic target, about second or third on the list, because of the Alyeska terminal.

-- Liz Pavek (lizpavek@hotmail.com), November 29, 1999.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ