I'm willing to sponsor a Nostradamus Contest

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

We'll call it Nostradamus II - A contest for prognosticators to predict the outcome of Y2K. This way pollies, doomers and everybody in between can put their "position, prediction, boasting, rightness, apathy, ignorance, skills and education, common sense, pigheadedness, etc, etc on the line.

Developing the criteria for scoring will take a lot of thought and I'd need some help, a panel so to speak. I'd also be willing to tabulate the scores. One problem I think would be that unless there was $5.00 or $10.00 for an entry I would get all kinds of crank entries rather than sincere attempts. But then everybody would think that I was trying to abscond with the pot and the only thing I can show to reflect my scrupulousness is my feedback rating on eBay. OR I can simply post $100 (or toilet paper equivalent) as a reward for the winner because I think the entertainment value would be worth $100. This is my last weekend to post eBay listings because I don't want to go anywhere near the P.O. or UPS during December. I think a project like this would be fun not work. I have seen such an enormous variation of predictions that I would love to pick out a winner from six months down the road and call the winner, "The Nostradamus Timebomb 2000 Prognosticator for the New Millenium" (don't give me any lip about 2000 not being the new millenium) and see that they get the proper recognition, respect and reward for either 1. being lucky, 2. being smart or 3. some combination of the above.

I'm willing to do the work but I want a serious cross section of all the contributors (and most of the regulars) to supply an entry. I couldn't imagine after all the steam and shouting, rhetoric and poetry that people would be too shy to submit an entry. But I need help developing an appropriate questionnaire thats scorable for three different timeframes, lets say Jan 1-7, March, and end of May or June. Comments, suggestions, ideas? I think this forum deserves a champion. Yes, Yes, I know, being right is not what its all about. It's helping your fellow human to prepare for a disaster - Hogwash. Why do we have contests at all, I know, I know to get the sponsors recognition, okay we'll call Y2k the sponsor and I'll back it up but I think its more appropriate for people to submit a token entry so they don't exaggerate their answers because you're more likely to be sincere and want to win if there is a decent pot at stake. I've even got an idea for the entry. $10.00 entry only if you're willing to be recognized if you win. $5.00 entry if you're willing to be recognized if you win or lose! because I want the people that are farthest from the mark to be recognized too!! I think 9.5 John would probably temper his prediction when forced to commit to a public contest and so will the pollies, for that matter. Time for public discussion.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), November 28, 1999


GREAT IDEA!!! And just so noone can accuse Guy of running a scam, I will gratiously volunteer to act as treasurer, and hold all those ragged old 5 and 10 spots!!!!!*wink

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), November 28, 1999.

Nastydemonus is not credible.

-- Joe (phrofit @ y2k .com), November 28, 1999.

Joe - Whoever wins the contest will have credibility.

-- Guy Daley (guydaley@bwn.net), November 28, 1999.

I think it's a BRILLIANT idea!

I've been calculating my preposterous personal prognostication for about 6 months now...can't wait to embarass myself publicly!!!

SPEAKING OF EMBARASSMENT... Since nobody here knows me by sight (I hope)I will entertain you all with a true story that happened to ME in basic training, CFRS/CFB Cornwallis, Nova Scotia:

It was week 3 of Basic Training and late summer 1993. Another typical Atlantic blowout was building over the area, and we got a terrific thunderstorm right over the base!

Thunder was so loud it rattled the windows in the H-huts (barracks of world war 2 vintage...)

I was in the middle of a shower when lightning apparently struck the building, setting off the fire alarm. I grabbed my towel and beret, and ran out to the designated assembly area--the parade ground.

It was pouring rain over about 1000 recruits and, as I took my place in front of my platoon, a girl screamed about getting wet and GRABBED MY TOWEL.

Technically, I was still in uniform (wearing my shower thongs and my beret) and I performed my duties flawlessly as I counted off the roll call to the most embarassed duty captain.

I've never been so embarassed in all my life. My family ribs me about being seen naked by "over a thousand people" to this day!



-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 29, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ