Risk of Y2K fallout is great unknown in much of world
FRANK BAJAK, MATTHEW ROSENBERG
Saturday, November 27, 1999

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/1999/11/27/international1127EST0497.DTL

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

(11-27) 08:27 PST KINGSTON, Jamaica (AP) -- Typical of many countries that got a late start in preparing for the millennium computer bug, this sun-dappled Caribbean island presents neither a nightmare scenario nor an easy ride.

Jamaica is among more than 60 countries analysts rank in the middle ground for Y2K risks--where government officials tend to paint a rosy picture of readiness that could mask a potential for serious disruptions.

Whether computer glitches will produce catastrophes, fatalities or merely inconvenience a few hundred tourists can't be predicted. But clearly, all is not ready in Jamaica.

The country's Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management is responsible for handling any emergency arising from the Year 2000 bug. Yet six weeks from the deadline its contingency plans are still in the works and its own disaster management systems are not yet Y2K complaint.

``We're still collecting information,'' director Barbara Carby says of contingencies for coping with possible disruptions such as power and water outages, bank runs or riots.

The police emergency radio communications network has not been adjusted to handle the date changeover, admits Carby. Nor has the computer program that tracks resources, shelters and emergency personnel, forcing a fallback to a slower manual system.

In most countries in the middle ground -- from Poland to India, Tunisia to Malaysia -- there has not been enough funds and time to address all potential problems.

``Like most places, we had to triage and make sure that mission-critical systems got top billing,'' explains Luke Jackson, Year 2000 project director for Jamaica. He won't say how much the government has spent on Y2K work.

In the nearby Dominican Republic, another Caribbean nation whose economy depends largely on foreign tourists, the Y2K situation is comparable.

Both countries' central banks have worked for three years to eradicate the bug from the financial sector. Air traffic control, after an assist from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and the airline industry, appears ready. Telecommunications and oil terminals and refineries look good.

But many other services are a question mark. And the reason is simple.

There has been no independent assessment of public and private efforts to vanquish the Y2K glitch -- a product of computer programming that expressed years with two digits, meaning uncorrected computers could interpret ``2000'' as ``1900'' and crash or garble data.

No one can say for sure whether traffic lights will go out, whether government pension and payroll checks will get printed and distributed, whether utility billing systems won't foul up, whether people will panic and rush to withdraw money from banks.

Seemingly manageable problems could pile upon one another, Y2K experts say, snowballing into major headaches that might not appear until days or weeks after Jan. 1.

Judging by their preparations, multinational companies in Jamaica are not especially confident of government assurances that the rollover to 2000 will be a nonevent.

Cable & Wireless, the island's exclusive telecommunications franchise, canceled all year-end vacations for senior managers and is setting up a war room it will staff round-the-clock beginning Dec. 31. Its10-inch thick sheaf of contingencies includes soliciting police protection for repair crews should it be necessary to restore service at hospitals and government buildings.

Citibank has installed a satellite uplink and set aside a two-week supply of water and gasoline. It is also stockpiling high-denomination bank notes, reducing lending to other banks and minimizing deposits with the central bank.

Preparing for possible panic by depositors, the central Bank of Jamaica has printed extra money -- it plans to have at least three times the normal end-of-the-year volume on hand -- and declared bank holidays for Dec. 31 and Jan. 3.

In the Dominican Republic's capital, Santo Domingo, the 14 commercial banks tout in huge banners on their headquarters: ``Para Y2K, Estamos OK'' -- ``We're OK for Y2K''.

But Augustin Lizardo, a partner in the auditing firm KPMG Peat Marwick, which has independently verified the banking industry's readiness, called that sector ``the only industry in the country that has done good Y2K work.''

The government says it spent a respectable $30 million on fixing the glitch, but that hasn't quelled the doubts of many observers.

``We don't know what systems are going to fail. Neither do they,'' a Western diplomat in Santo Domingo said, speaking on condition he not be further identified. He singled out public health care, ocean transport and small- to medium-sized businesses as areas likely to experience failures.

A false sense of security could compound problems.

Out at Santo Domingo's port of Haina, where longshoreman unload Florida timber and Canadian soy from freighters, port authority systems manager Alfonso Peroso sits beside a shiny new hi-end computer, still-boxed Microsoft software behind him, and boasts that all his programs are Y2K compliant.

Peroso says the authority still tracks ship traffic on written ledgers and there are no electronic navigation aids in the harbor-- low-tech protection against millennium bugs.

But when asked about the cranes and payloaders on the docks, Peroso suddenly looks worried. ``Well, we don't really oversee that,'' he says.

The Y2K program manager at one private contractor on the docks, Maritima Dominicana, says all the company's critical systems are compliant. But when asked about dock machinery, Pilar Duverge wonders aloud about the payloaders that shuttle shipping containers around.

``I think I better doublecheck,'' she says.

In Kingston, Jamaica, port officials exude confidence about their nearly two years of Y2K preparations. There's much at stake for a country that imports most of its food, and Kingston's wharves are also a major transshipment point for cargo bound for all corners of the earth.

At the port's Customs Department office, however, the Y2K work is far from done.

Programmers are just beginning to install new software for tracking duty payments. A revenue accounting system is to be installed by the end of November. And with the clock ticking mercilessly toward an immovable deadline, several mission-critical systems are still in testing.

Systems could well fail, says Y2K coordinator Kareen Waugh, but delays in processing goods wouldn't last more than a few days.

``We don't know what will happen. Nobody knows what will happen. But we should be ready with the critical part,'' she says.

Dyon Woolcock, Y2K troubleshooter for Jamaica's civil aviation, says the country's air traffic control systems have all been fixed and tested.

But she allows that certain airport inconveniences can be expected, offering one example at Jamaica's north coast tourist mecca.

``There's a new X-ray machine in Montego Bay that's not complaint,'' she observes, smiling. ``You can't X-ray a suitcase. So what? You just have to open it.''

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 27, 1999

Answers

I've visited Jamaica twice, staying on the "company dime" at exclusive tourist resorts. Each time I left, I thanked God I got out before the revolution. I will never return. My idea of a vacation paradise has little to do with a feeling of overwhelming guilt during my stay.

It would seem obvious that any computer problems affecting the Island will primarily affect the tourist trade.

As for the natives, well, "Ja, mon, no problem." They live in shacks, with a goat and a few chickens, in stark contrast to the mansions on the hills.

-- inquiring minds (want@to.know), November 27, 1999.