Third CIO poll out on Monday at www.yardeni.comgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
As I'm sure you'll remember, the last poll (mid-september data) showed most companies still working on it. Only 19.1% said they were completely done. 34% expected some critical systems failures in 2000. 23% said they had over 1000 suppliers. Only 19.6% said they had assessed all suppliers. Only 12.8% did any on-site assessment of suppliers. Only 20% had tested contingency plans.
Any guesses as to the next numbers, with only a month to go?
Any idea if Wall Street will react to headlines saying "only 50% of companies are ready for Y2K"?
-- You Know... (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 27, 1999
It's more likely (given the dynamic of late project failure) that the number "ready" will be below 50%.
The market logically should react in a very big way. But it probably WILL NOT react at all. Irrational exuberance and all that. The market could have a coronary and its feet would keep moving for days.
-- snooze button (email@example.com), November 27, 1999.
Sure, Wall Street would react -- probably the same way it does when unemployment figures go up. You wanna see a DOW of 15,000 before the end of the year? Have five major cities (your choice) disappear from the face of the earth. Perverse reasoning, but that seems to be the way it works.
-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), November 27, 1999.
"Any guesses as to the next numbers, with only a month to go?"
I make very few predictions, but with the past record of incredible self reported remediation figures, this could work. ;-)
99.1% will say they are completely done. 1.2% expect some critical systems failures in 2000. 23% said they had over 1000 suppliers. Only 99.1% say they have assessed all suppliers. 99.1% have done on-site assessment of suppliers. 99.1% have tested contingency plans.
"Any idea if Wall Street will react to headlines saying "only 50% of companies are ready for Y2K"?"
They won't say that, they have a whole 35 days to make it to the miraculous 100% and with only 0.9% .....No prob, babe!
-- Cary Mc from Tx (Caretha@compuserve.com), November 27, 1999.
As I recall (and I may be wrong) the Yardeni/CIO poll is one of those where the responses are self-selecting, i.e., they send out 1000 questionaires and only 250 or 300 respond--for whatever reason--and the rest stay quiet--for whatever reason.
This means that there is NO statistically sound info to be gleaned from this travesty of a study. I like Yardeni, he seems a sensible guy, but why he's involved in this foolishness is beyond me.
When the report comes out pay closer attention to the methodology (if they report it) and the response rate. The rate of response may tell us more than whatever levels of preparation are reported.
That's about two cents worth, I think...
-- William in Dallas (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 27, 1999.