Partial OT. Why don't we recognise Iraq's obvious game? Maximum oil market, (and economic) disruption.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
OK here we are rolling into the millenium. Iraq, once again, decides to jerk our chain and play Hussein-ego games to get him back in the world spotlight. So Iraq vetos a 2 week extension of the current oil for food program. Now Iraqi oil won't flow and NO alternative supply decisions will be made for at least two weeks. Tuesday we get the main Iraqi oil-for-food delegate saying if the Sec Council voted in another 6 month rollover on the same oil for food deal as the last one, Iraq would accept it. Oil markets drop 65 cents. Wednesday the main Iraqi delegate to the UN says whoa! wait a minute we haven't said if we'll accept another 6 month deal or not. Oil shoots back up 50 cents.
Check out this story in the LA Times- "Officials Expect Iraq Oil Cutoff to be Short-Lived" http://www.latimes.com/asection/199911241+000107102.html
Or check out any others in the mainstream press. What's with this dumbass expectation that Hussein is gonna just open the oil spigots back up in two weeks? Notice he explictedly sends out mixed signals. If Hussein really wanted to end the UN oil for food deal, he'd just publicly state as much. The West would make alternate supply plans via the Saudis or SPR sales and we'd go happily along without Iraqi oil. But NOOOOO. Hussein wants games and we're dumb enough to play em at his terms. Mark my words: Iraqi oil won't be flowing again in 2 weeks and we won't have any alternative supply set up to replace it. The UN will be typically impotent. The US won't show any leadership (ie tell Iraq to accept the 6 month rollover terms by the end of Nov or we'll make alternative oil supply plans). So here we are getting set up for a 2.25 million barrel a day supply disruption right at the inception of year end hoarding and what ever rollover disruptions that will unfold. Comments?
-- Downstreamer (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 24, 1999
Because we are stupid!
-- squid (Itsdark@down.here), November 24, 1999.
...while he plays every little gyration in the futures market. Very clever indeed.
-- Dave (email@example.com), November 24, 1999.
I'd just betcha that that old fox -- Saddamy is secretly playing the markets both ways ... going long, then shorting, then going long, etc. As it is now, the market is uniquely vulnerable to such manipulations.
Wasn't there a CIA report indicating that Saddamy's oil won't make the rollover? I suspect that maybe he's trying to make some hay while he still can PLUS... mess with the west. In doing so, it's a financial equivalent of bio-war terrorism only in the financial sector without actually doing any computer hacking. It's legal too, at least for now. I'm guessing that the Gulf War never ended, someone just forgot to tell us that its still on. (Like the Media).
Oh, btw, Downstreamer, was it you or someone else a few weeks back who kept arguing that the Oil markets were NOT factoring Y2K therefore it must be a non-event? I know someone was saying that. I'd said that it was still wayyyy toooo early and that we'd need to see a rollover out of November contracts. Frankly I figured it would not happen til a rollover out December contracts. So, I guess I just straddled it cause the markets really didn't spark til the November contract was expiring and seems to be on the verge of going nuts at about the time December expired.
Right now the DMI/ADI is still looking bullish while the market digests the recent gains. The DMI is looking like there's still quite a ways to go in this move...but if it does, I still expect a fair retracement backwards before the end of December. Now, having said that... watch this market shoot up another 10 bucks and just sit there so as to prove me wrong once again. Going out on limbs is just soooo much fun, till the sucker starts slowly snapping. Then ya get the same feeling that Wily E. Coyote must get when he runs off the cliff into thin air.
BTW... for anyone wondering, (I've not posted for awhile on gold) Gold is still not looking too healthy. It's just gone limp in an extremely narrow trading range. I'm still bearish and looking for further down ward movement, technically. I suspect that the only thing holding it up is some level of popular bullion purchasing for Y2K. I also suspect that this slow period is allowing these gold producers time to close out those extensive extra short positions.
Meanwhile, the DJIA is such a miracle. I mean talk about a hanger-on. Technically, the signals have been going nuts for months...it's like the law of gravity no longer applies to the DJIA. Not too worry, it's undoubtedly being manipulated now by the Fed to keep things aloft for awhile longer. So, lets see here now. We sure need a healthy correction in pricing just to keep the economy healthy and avoid inflation...So... using my keen wits I know that the contrarian view must be in play with regards to what I should say. (Murphy's law applies when I make prognostications)... SOOOOO Where do you want the DOW to go??? Just tell me and I'll predict the opposite and you'll get your wish. Personally, I'd like to see a healthy correction, so I'm gonna go out on the limb and predict 20,000 on the DOW by 12/31/99
NOW, there, I've done it... we should now begin to see a healthy, normal safe market correction...starting next Monday. You realize if I said it would tank on Monday it would shoot up another dangerous 1,000 points? Why do I feel like Wily E. Coyote after reading the ACME owner's manual for do-it-yourself market manipulation kits. Remember how he would raise his eyebrows up and down when he got an ingenius idea??? Mine just did that too. Scary... Oh well...
Ya'll have a great Thanksgiving and watch out for those options now ya hear?
-- Dick Moody (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 24, 1999.
AS families gather for Thanksgiving, I can't help but suspect that GIs and the DWGIs will be battling for supremacy. If the GIs win, the predicted jumpiness -- a jumpiness I thought would show up in July (what a moron) -- might finally appear. Then again, using your logic, since I think the market could drop 80% without including Y2K (and staying within documented P/E ranges), I am forced to predict a DOW of 40,000 by year's end. Maybe I should write a book.
-- Dave (email@example.com), November 24, 1999.
"So Damn Insane" is planning on using "fix on failure" as the principal Iraqi defense against the Y2K design defect... I doubt that we'll have to worry about him much for the first 6-12 months after rollover. He's probably stockpiling what is currently produced for Iraqi domestic (and military) use.
-- Mad Monk (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 24, 1999.
>He's probably stockpiling what is currently produced for Iraqi >domestic (and military) use.
I've been pondering that too.
-- Paula (email@example.com), November 24, 1999.
Dick - Always enjoy your comments! Yeah, with all the huge forces at play, and the "news" flying around, the ONLY way to look at these markets is technically. I think gold has to hold above about 294 next week, but the next leg should be UP. Don't know how high, but of course if it goes above 338 all bets are off. But I would be long here with a stop at say 293.
I agree with your OIL and DOW thoughts. The Dow is remarkable, but still no breadth. I follow the S&P more, and it looks very weak. S&P 2000 for me. (heh heh)
I hope OIL pulls back - I kind of missed the last chance to get long a call - Maybe a Feb Call.
The proliferation of Everybody Trading is amazing. Even without Y2K, this is going to crash like we've never SEEN.
I hope Y2K doesn't blow the banks, because if you're short, you could make a real fortune. Wouldn't you know it, about the time I get this trading thing figured out - the WORLD ENDS. Dang.
-- Gregg (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 24, 1999.