For a moderate Y2K outcome I am using Ed Yourdon's year of disruptions. A year of disruptions in this country as well as Canada and several other first tier countries. For the rest of the world I assume the Y2K outcome will be severe even for those nations with little advanced infrastructure.

Pondering the postings of Paul Milne and my own reflections of the totality of the Y2K problem it is evident to me that even a moderate outcome in the technical sense could easily snowball into something far worse than just Y2K in terms of technical failures. Y2K is not a stand alone event.

Consider that we inport most of our oil. Consider that much of the world depends on grain foods produced in this country and Canada. Consider that we are now in the largest asset bubble the world has known. At no time in history has our population been so far removed from the land. Fifty percent of our population is dependent upon government transfer payments for for their existence. Family bonds are not what they should be. The political process ignores the tax payers in favor of those receiving transfer payments and those of the wealthy class who fund the politicians. The political process and major media seem to be working overtime to divide our population into diverse special interest groups or even worse into seperate camps of good and bad.

What I am getting at is my concern that as a nation we may no longer be blessed with the moral foundation to withstand both the fallout of a moderate Y2K crisis and also the collapse of asset values. Also we may not have within our control the natural resources and industrial base to support the continuance of the creature comforts to anywhere near the level that we now take for granted. If this is correct then what we may experience is quite massive social disruption for some small period and a large increase in crime over a longer period of time. Naturally we are also looking at the ingrediants for a war, the last rabbit trick of politicians.

If I am correct in the above, and I should add that correct predictions are not my stronger suite, then supplies to sit it out for a year would seem quite prudent. Eighteen months would be even better. I have done what I can within our resources to acheive this level. I will continue putting away up to the very end. We still need more TP, anaimal feeds, medical supplies and some topping off of food rations.

Much has been posted regarding violent situations we might experience from those who did not prep. In my opinion for what little it is worth there is a very short window of time in which this will be a major problem. Maybe we could define this window of time as that point when reality hits non prepers in the face until physical exhaustion takes its toll and brute police and citizen action becomes a factor that would be looters must consider. A longer term problem may be theft; such as stealing chickens in the 1930's.

-- Ed (ed@lizzardranch.com), November 23, 1999

Answers

Its sad and ironic when you think that the very prosperity we are now enjoying has torn the moral fiber that is needed in a crisis. I would say that we have been here before. The roaring twenties was considered an age of "loose" morals and incredible wealth creation. When the wealth evaporated people turned back to their moral roots. When can worship at the alter of consumerism only as long as we can afford the price of admission.

The shock will effect different people in different ways some who you would never guess could become hero's because the enviornment provides the opportunity. Not everyone will be some crazed mad max like thug looking to plunder.

War is not just a tool of the politicians. War can grow out of desperation. A far greater trigger will be the need for countries to deal with famine. We know where the food is and the bulk is here in the America's, we also know where the populations are India and China. What is the moral thing to do when you are a leader of a country that can't feed its people?

May you live in interesting time (a curse indeed)

-- squid (Itsdark@down.here), November 23, 1999.

I think the best analysis I heard was that if we have a 5 the likely mishandling of that situation by TPTB will cause the event to escalate to a 9 or 10. I don't believe that the government has the fortitude and wherewithal to handle a 5 in a positive way and we will be on our own as things degenerate from there. That's what I expect.

-- wondering (wondering@nottoo.far), November 23, 1999.

Ed, you stated "What I am getting at is my concern that as a nation we may no longer be blessed with the moral foundation to withstand both the fallout of a moderate Y2K crisis and also the collapse of asset values."

Just as an aside, IMO this nation never had a strong moral foundation. It is a popular misconception.

Think about the late 1700's. Did this nation support the importation of humans for the purpose of selling them into bondage?

[Actually, no. Technically, blacks were thought of as animals. This way good, moral "Christians" & others could participate in the barbarism without.]

The 1st decade of the 1800's saw importation for purposes of slavery end, yet the buying & selling continued. Indians were slaughtered wholesale under the national goals propounded by Manifest Destiny.

1890's saw Jim Crow laws become widespread.

These are just a few of the top of the noggin, Ed.

Best Wishes,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), November 23, 1999.

Let us not forget the wonderful housing situation of the 1930s when bankruptcy and confiscation (read "back taxes") occurred - this led to Hooverville's outside most cities (basically, an American version of the barrios seen in Central and South America). What will we call these modernday marvels of urban dwelling? I vote for Clintonville - both presidents appear to display the same level of diconnect w/ reality.

-- phread (lurking@y2k.com), November 23, 1999.

Another "ancient chinese proverb" comes to mind: the only thing new under the sun is the history you dont know.

-- JB (noway@jose.com), November 23, 1999.

Anyone have a good recipe for "roof rabbit"?

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 23, 1999.

I want to wax philosophically, here for a moment and it really isn't OT. The issues around Y2K are a catalyst for change.

History has always been selectively rewritten. Different times, different issues, different versions of what is true. Hard to judge if where we are at present is better or worse. Those of us on the planet now are to close to the issues to render judgement.

What is clear is that the reliance upon technology and the infrastructure created as a result of the "third wave" is coming up to be a mixed blessing. The present political, economic, corporate, and environmental decisions are not sustainable in the long term. The environmental mayhem, the lack of balance in working lives, the growing potential for cyber/biotech/nuclear terrorism--all of these issues point to a potential redefinition of mayhem and a newley creative way for this generational group of the world population to eat their young.

Maybe that is why there is a burgeoning interest in self reliance, alternative health, organic foods, gardening, sustainable living, etc. These concepts are not some commie, pinko, hippie, freak notion from the tied dyed world of Northern California or Vermont but perhaps a potential path through the maze.

The very real issues linked with Y2K are just the tip of the ice berg. Yes, we are living in interesting times and it is a curse.

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), November 23, 1999.

We need to work a little on our expectations. Its NOT going to go back to "normal". It may go back to better or to worse. But if you have shelter, water, food....based on how the rest of the world is forced to live...how the hell can we ask or expect more? Whats the saying, those are needs, the rest are wants!!

Taz...who hopes it comes down slowly and not all at once. Its our only chance.

-- Taz (Tassie123@aol.com), November 23, 1999.