I sent the press release below to our local NBC news affiliate last week. They asked me to appear on the local news after the airing of the Y2k movie. The reporter covered the Y2k story by interviewing a local credit union, a local hospital, and the local utility. I was the only one suggesting that Y2k will be more than a "bump in the road". The coverage was balanced and the reporter seemed genuinely concerned about Y2k risks. Don't give up on the cause. We can still have an impact! Area Y2k Expert Predicts Major Problems. Calls For Local Action.

Brian Bretzke, a lifetime Flint area resident and Y2k consultant, predicts serious Y2k problems during the first quarter of 2000.

Bretzke says a gas and oil shortage twice as bad as the one we experienced in the 1970's is very possible.

"I'm certainly no prophet, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Y2k problems cause 10% of small businesses to go under, a 2,000 to 3,000 point drop in the stock market and unemployment approaching 8%."

Bretzke's company is part of a World-Class Y2k Think Tank, a group of Y2k experts, which includes Bill Ulrich, considered to be one of the foremost gurus on the Y2k issue.

Bretzke says President Clinton and most companies have understated potential Y2k problems.

"I hope I'm totally wrong. But the numbers just don't add up," he said.

He points to information presented by the Naval War College and U.S. Information Agency at the Year 2000 Symposium, in New York in October and the 100 Day Report from the U.S. Senate, to back up his claims.

"By their own admission, most of our foreign oil suppliers are not prepared for Y2k. The maritime shipping industry advises they aren't ready. And 95% of all foreign oil is shipped through 10 ports. None of these ports are Y2k compliant. Furthermore, our U.S. gas and oil infrastructure is at high risk because of Y2k embedded system problems."

Bretzke goes on to predict that the actual Jan. 1, 2000 rollover will be a "non-event". He says there could be isolated power outages and minor computer problems reported, but serious Y2k problems won't become evident until later in January. "It will start as a series of small events which will become a "Y2k snowball" picking up speed through the first quarter.

Brian went on to describe how a presentation made to the Royal Society in England in early October explained how Y2k will cause personal computers to slow down and grind to a halt. Independent testing in Rotterdam has confirmed this report.

Bretzke says it's too late to fix all the problems in time to avoid disruptions. "In the past, members of our Think Tank have presented some very strong scientific evidence to the President's Council on Y2k. This information has not been openly shared with the American Public. We did the best we could to get the information out."

As a former police officer, Bretzke is calling on local area governments to prepare comprehensive Y2k contingency plans. He suggests that government agencies should, "Hope for the best, but plan for the worst."

Contact: Brian Bretzke 810-750-0104 bretzke@tir.com http://www.tir.com/~bretzke/enterprise2000.html

-- Brian Bretzke (bretzke@tir.com), November 22, 1999

Answers

Bretzke goes on to predict that the actual Jan. 1, 2000 rollover will be a "non-event".

Kind of a brazen statement. I beg to differ. From what I've read (a lot), we could see a multitude of problems at the rollover. It's just that many of them can be temporarily band-aided with back-up generators, contingency plans, etc, and kept from causing immediate disaster and thus from the public's eye. However, the cascading defaults within and certainly accross systems will multiply, imo, ...

Who knows what kind of instant malfunctions we'll see/ hear of, mcuh less the snowballing creepers.
(Read: embedded systems, cross-nation interdependant cascading defaults...)

-- faith (y2kaos@home.com), November 22, 1999.

Excellent job, Brian Bretzke! You broke through the opaque ceiling! Any feedback from readers?

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), November 22, 1999.