The North American Electric Reliability Council released yesterday its Status Report Update Third Quarter 1999". ftp://ftp.nerc.com/pub/sys/all_updl/docs/y2k/nov-doe-report.pdf

The report is somewhat less of a cheerleading piece than it has been. That is refreshing.

With 44 days to go, it reflects:

 6% of bulk power producers are not Y2k ready. (They are Ready with Exceptions. In many cases, they are having supplier problems.  There have been independent audits of 36 of 105 nuclear power plants, with 17 more in progress. (All plants report ready.)  The electric power industrys primary vulnerability is voice and data communications. (The power utilities depend on the phone utilities, not covered in the report, or any so comprehensive reports.) The power industry has had two drills trying alternative communications to typical phone lines.

There are 2,012 public power distribution systems serving about 14% of electricity customers in the US. The NERC report states that American Public Power Association surveys (not NERC surveys) have covered all of them, and that there are only 22 public power systems which are not Y2k ready. However, note what NERC terms ready. The October 30, 1999, American Public Power Association report is attached as Appendix C. It states:

 Only 29% of the small and 63% of the middle systems stated that the utility was responsible for dealing with Y2k problems. The rest think that city government was responsible.  Only 84.3% of the public utilities say they have enough information about the Y2k problem. (So...more than 15% dont have enough information but are done anyway?)  only 82.45% of the small and have considered the impact of Y2k on operational and embedded systems  only 87% of the small have initiated action to pursue solutions.

These utilities are counted among the ones deemed ready.

-- Anonymous, November 19, 1999

Answers

I realize that FactFinder is probably going to jump on the statistics like my dog does on an old deer carcass, but here goes anyway:

The electric utilities are not ready. Only 51% of the nukes are having independent audits. One in 16 of the bulk power producers are not ready. 71% of small power producers think that the city which owns them is in charge of the repairs of their plants. Detroit Edison finished their ASSESSMENT only last December, then had the gall to hide that fact in a weasel-worded letter to their customers in January. And on and on...

I don't care what the NERC, the DOE, the APPA, or anyone else says-- clearly, the utility companies are not ready for the first of January. Period. I'm not an expert on electric utilities, but you don't have to be a brain surgeon to know when the patient is sick. The grid is connected, and major parts of it are not ready. Therefore, there are areas that are not going to work.

So now, what?! Our governments at all of their various levels have been sitting back on their collective backsides, spinning their little stories to the American people about how Y2K is not going to be a big deal, how the doomers are all wrong, leave your money in the bank, don't hoard food, yaddah, yaddah, yaddah.

The leaders of this country knew roughly a year ago that the job in the utility industry would not be done. The Naval War College warned the federal government that it should tell the citizens of the U.S. the truth about Y2K; instead, we just sit around waiting expectantly to hear the truth, but hearing more stories.

I'm sick of the whole stupid thing. I'm tired of canning, and I still have a whole boatload to do. I'm tired of spending my money on boring things like beans, grain, and other dull ingredients, and waiting for my friends who have spent their money on trips and cruises to show up on my doorstep by January 3 because their houses are cold. I'm tired of being the only prepper in my church, and having my friends tell me that I'm a fool for preparing, and that they don't have to prepare because I am. I'm sick of seeing Mr. Clinton's smirky laughing face on TV everytime a reporter asks a reasonable question about Y2K. I've realized that it doesn't matter what I or Rick or Lane or Bonnie or Fact Finder or anyone else on the internet posts about Y2K, because it's just too darned late to have the problem fixed. I want my kids to go to college. I want to be able to go out and buy a frozen cappuccino. I want to find peanut M&M's at the store. I want to be able to access the services I need for my three handicapped kids. I'm spoiled, and I admit it, and I'm grieving, and I admit it, and I'm tired of the whole d---thing.

Mr. Clinton: You had a chance to be honest with the American people, and you didn't do it. Now my relatives and friends are going to be cold, or they won't have water, or power, or bread somewhere around this country, and it's partly because you didn't tell them that they 're going to be cold. You told people last week that you're not putting food aside for Y2K. Months ago, people on the internet wrote posts about how their food orders were going to be delayed because the one company from which they were all purchasing food told them that the big food order from the White House took precedence over their orders. I'm sorry to take so much space here to rant; Rick, if you want to delete it, I'll understand. I think I've just hit my burn-out point. I wish I could tell you all how much the support of the people on this forum and TB 2000 means to me, and I hope you'll understand the ravings of a very tired prepper.

-- Anonymous, November 19, 1999

Ann,

I don't know how it will play on the Electrical Forum, but I'm glad I got to read your post! I feel exactly the same, except that I'm believing the spin again. I did this before, ate my provisions, and now I'm prepared again, but feeling like an idiot. EVERYONE IN THE ENTIRE COUNTRY is saying that the utilities are going to be okay and I'm beginning to believe it! Just got a newsletter from "Y2k Newswire" or something like that. They are now saying : "Hey we believe the utilities are in great shape, the impact will only be economic." The world changed and didn't warn me. When did this happen.

Okay, I know nothing about the technical issues, but the preponderance of the evidence seems to have shifted in favor of the "pollies". That's how I see it today. Day after tomorrow, I'll be back feeling like it will be TEOTWAWKI..... It's driving me nuts, too. I just want it to go away...

It seems to me that our leaders could have handled this entire thing (even if it is a bump in the road) with more dignity and straightforwardness and somehow kept it from becoming the biggest "nobody knows what's going to happen, but we know nothing will happen, so don't pay attention to what we are doing (building 50M dollar control centers) just trust us and keep your mouth shut" event in the history of this country.

My own daughter thinks we are nuts. She's flying to the big millenium party in Vegas without a care in the world. The spin is making me dizzy.

-- Anonymous, November 19, 1999

Ann,

I understand your frustration and appreciate your efforts to care for your family. (marianne, if your out there pray for my few sentences effort at communication. Last time I shifted from "thinking" to "feeling" mode I got blasted.) Try to take a deep breath, sit down with a cup of tea and take a break to "reset". With a deep breath, ponder the following thoughts.

Testing a device doesn't change whether a device is intrinsically ready, or waiting to break. A device that is designed poorly will fail if you do not test it, it will also fail if you do test it (and do not fix). The only value of testing is to remove the uncertainty, and allow you to either gain assurance or begin to remediate.

By the same token, testing a compliant device changes nothing except remove uncertainty. Untested or tested, the device will perform properly.

Once remediated, the same uncertainty remains. The fix will either work, or will not work. Testing is required to remove the uncertainty, but does not change the probability of success (unless additional remediation is performed.)

Summary point #1 - Testing does not have a cause/effect relationship on pass/fail status of a device.

Summary point #2 - Remediation of flawed devices has a direct relationship to the pass/fail status of a device know to be initially flawed.

Independent verification does not have any impact on the probability of device pass/fail status. A device that is flawed or was improperly remediated will fail if an IV&V is performed (and no further action is taken). It will also fail if NO IV&V is performed.

Again, a device that designed properly or was successfully remediated will pass without regards to whether an IV&V was performed. It will pass.

IV&V will aid by measuring the effectiveness of a inventory/test/remediation program. IV&V can have two possible impacts. If IV&V measures deficiencies in a I/T/R program, increased/improved remediation will provide a direct impact on reliability. If IV&V measures a high level of competency and performance in the I/T/R program, then an increased confidence is the potential benefit.

SUMMARY POINT #3 - IV&V Testing does not have a cause/effect relationship on pass/fail status of a device. (Can I draw ANY conclusions regarding the quality or percent completion of your canning efforts based on the absence of an IV&V of your preps?)

SUMMARY POINT #4 - IV&V testing does measure the effectiveness of remediation efforts.

So I agree with your opinion that IV&V is a good thing. I believe that multiple perspectives and diverse and multiple reviews of my program were performed. 1. My T&D I/T/R program included inventory and review of hundreds of substations involving many technicians over several states and organizations. 2. Because multiple departments operate in substations, cross organizational reviews provided a level of oversight and redundancy. (We did find some devices that could have potentially fallen between the "organizational cracks". 3. Substations located at power plants had T&D AND Fossil/Hydro personnel perform overlapping inspections. 4. Substations located at Nuke stations had T&D AND Nuclear personnel perform overlapping instructions. 5. Nuclear test/remediation personnel had multiple perspectives due to team approach with Station Operations, Technial Review, Engineering Department, Electrical Department, Relay department providing input to brainstorming sessions. 6. Fossil & Hydro personnel had diverse perspectives from team brainstorming with representatives from multiple power stations. 7. Each F&H power station had teams with brainstorming with representatives from each organizational department within the plant (electrical, operations, engineering, relay, I&C - similar to Nuclear). 8. Embedded device task team had periodic meetings where team leaders from Nuke, F&H, Operations, Telecomm, and T&D met to share philosophies, best work practices, ask questions. Each area had independent I/T/R efforts 9. Representatives from each independent Y2K I/T/R team attended each of the EPRI conferences over 2 years to share notes and best practices with other utilities. 10. NRC audited Nuclear. 11. Nuclear cooped with another utility for a confidential peer review. 12. Corporate Y2K hosted info sharing seminar with major industrial cusomers, co-gens and Cooperatives and team leaders from each business units Y2K I/T/R team leader. 13. EPRI website provide a forum to share best work practices, test procedures, test results, vendor site reviews etc. with other utilities. 14. Internal auditing department conducted an independent review of each Y2K team's program including inventory, test results, and documentation.

Now from where I sit, this is a pretty darn comprehensive effort, and with the exception of Internal auditors, each person involved was one of the best qualified technical expert in each field, with many cumulative years of experience directly in the utility field.

Now granted, you have no waying of knowing all this went on. NERC and NRC and each major company tried to communicate confidence, each in thier own way. It amazes me that in the face of all this experience, expertise, and multiple layers of review, brainstorming, sharing of info (on an unprecedented level given the anxiety of the comin era of competition), all this... and people want an independent accounting firm in order to trust. (And then they assume that soldiers, and politicians (of all people) are better able to assess completion, thoroughness and competency.

(Diatribe mode OFF)

-- Anonymous, November 19, 1999

Gosh, reading these posts makes me feel "no alone". Lots of us have this angst. On way to look at this, is if it's worth doing for y2k it's worth doing period. Y2k is not the only boogeyman out there. An individual was just arrested for planning to blow up the transAlaska pipeline. His motive appears to have been greed. He was caught. There are others out there- some will not be caught.

It is a good thing to develop a bit of independence, or "self - sufficiency" even if there is "only a bump in the road". I deal with many people who know more than I do and have resources far greater than mine. Some are quietly preparing for a more significant event. These are people who have a good track record. I don't think you will regret your preparations. Jim Baughman

-- Anonymous, November 20, 1999

Ann, we all know electricity/fuel is the backbone of the country. Those of us who did our homework know that is threatened so we are prudently preparing our insurance. When family/others question my preps I tell them I love my family and am buying next year's food now and won't have to go to the grocery for a year. End of story. The hardest part has been carrying the supplies in the house, up a number of steps. Yes, it ticks me off sometimes when I am tired of this, just as you are, but you are coming to the end of preps. Don't you have peace of mind about now that your family will do well because of your preps? You made the only choice you could based on the evidence you had. You are protecting your family, a noble thing to do. No one can fault you for this, no one. If we get by this problem, eat your food, save the money you would spend next year for food and take the vacation the next year. For now, just take a look at your kids. You did it for them.

-- Anonymous, November 20, 1999

Thanks for the encouragement--when I posted this, I had a very tough time deciding whether it was appropriate for this forum. If I had been one of the Apostles, I would have been Peter ("Ready, Fire, Aim"), so I posted it anyway!

Marcella, I'm very glad that we're preparing for Y2K, and I'll never regret that, even if it turns out to be nothing. (which I doubt) I'm just tired of the whole thing. CL, I'm glad that at your plant, the issue has been taken seriously. However, you're at one plant. How about so many of the others where it's not been taken seriously?!

Again, I thank you all for your support. My husband is a GI to a great extent because of what I've been able to tell him from this forum.

-- Anonymous, November 20, 1999

Ann,

I don't just work in one plant. My work involved ALL protection and control for T&D for a multi-state utility. AND, I have had opportunities to interact with folks from other big player utilities. I wish that I could say that my program was head and shoulders above the rest, but in fairness ALL utilities I interacted with had the same high standards. I believe it is the norm, not the exception.

Ubi petros, ibi ecclesiastes est.

-- Anonymous, November 20, 1999

Linda,

Gobbledygook statements are common, as you have found out. Even CL is always teetering on the edge of making such statements and I see just above that he finally went over the edge. Can't even speck english now. However, when you think you may be getting too confused just read the latest US Senate report again. And remember that when you see "local" problems referred to in electric supply, that word means state-wide. People with a *much* bigger picture than CL are warning of outages. CL is like FactFinder, and doesn't think the O-rings on the electric shuttle are going to leak, or not real bad anyway.

-- Anonymous, November 21, 1999