Fair use, et al... See the "Got Fuel" section - it's VERY interesting!

http://cnniw.newsreal.com/cgi-bin/NewsService?osform_template=pages/cnniwStory&ID=cnniw&storypath=News/Story_1999_11_16.NRdb@2@5@3@208

Jan.1, 2000: Be Prepared Source: Sunday Gazette-Mail

SUNDAY GAZETTE-MAIL In less than two months, we should have some idea which prognosticators were right: Will the Y2K bug disrupt your life for months? Or will it go down in history as a minor, overhyped computer glitch?

My money (most of which will be in the bank on Jan. 1) is on the latter but, then again, it's best to be prepared.

Businesses ready for Y2K can still have problems. Maybe they missed something. Maybe their suppliers are not ready.

Utne Reader's Y2K Citizen's Action Guide gave an example from a Eugene, Ore., grocery store owner.

"She drew a pictogram of how a potato grown in South America must migrate through a daunting gamut of interwoven computer and social systems to find its way into a sack of potato chips on her store's shelf," wrote Larry Shook.

"In the event of cascading Y2K disruptions of the type that can't be ruled out, it became clear the likelihood of the potato's uninterrupted journey was roughly that of a snowball's chance in hel l."

"It is, I think, the biggest management problem the world has faced in the last 50 years," said John Koskinen, chair of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, during a Y2K panel discussion last month.

"And I have been telling people companies aren't spending hundreds of millions of dollars on this problem for public relations efforts."

Government officials worry about overreaction by the public, Koskinen said, but they don't want people to ignore Y2K.

"We're a little like Goldilocks," he said. "We don't want it to be too hot or too cold."

People can take sensible precautions rather than rebuild Fort Knox or barricade themselves in their homes.

Y-2-What?

Fewer than 20 years ago, 64K (kilobytes) was considered plenty of memory for the average personal computer. Today memory is measured by the megabyte (1,000K). Many PCs have 1,000 times more memory than older systems.

For older systems, programmers often abbreviated the date: 1980 was "80," 1991 was "91," and 2000 was, well we'll worry about that later.

Later is now. At midnight on Jan. 1, older computers and software might read "00" as the year 1900.

If your computer displays New Year's Day as Jan. 1, 1900, you may be mildly annoyed. But if your power or phone bill is due on 1/15/00 and the utility's computer reads "00" as 1900, you could be billed for a century of late charges. Or the utility's computer crashes.

Last month, The Associated Press reported that computers in the Maine Secretary of State's Office interpreted "00" as 1900. As a result, owners of 2000 model cars and trucks received titles that stated they owned horseless carriage.

When the federal government began fiscal year 2000 on Oct. 1, four or five systems crashed from minor glitches fixed by the end of the day, Koskinen said. The government had already tested and fixed some of those systems, thinking they were Y2K-ready.

How will this affect the average person?

The Cassandra Project is a grassroots organization working to educate the public about Y2K. They say that there are an estimated 25 billion to 30 billion microprocessors in the world and that, citing the Institute of Electrical Engineers, 2 percent to 12 percent of them could have date problems.

Like dominoes, the microprocessor problem could affect personal computers, utilities and other services, and appliances.

I don't know if my toaster is Y2K-compliant. But I expect to toast a bagel on New Year's Day because as far as I know, the toaster does not keep track of the date. Nor does my microwave oven.

But microchips are everywhere. If you have an appliance that knows what year it is, you might have problems. To find out the Y2K status of any appliance, contact the manufacturer.

Show me the money

Banks and other financial institutions have spent years preparing for Y2K, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and other agencies have been monitoring their progress.

"Financial services generally, as I understand it, are a bit ahead of the curve in terms of Y2K compliance," said Mitch Evans, district manager and a financial adviser for American Express in Charleston.

In September, the FDIC said only 27 of the nation's 10,922 banks and other financial institutions had no completed satisfactory preparations for Jan. 1, 2000.

That's less than 0.25 percent - or one out of 400.

Locally, City Holding Co. is so sure its banks will weather the storm without a glitch that several branches will be open at midnight on New Year's Eve and stay open until noon on Jan. 1.

"We're doing that to hopefully put customers' fears aside," said Matt Call, City's executive vice president.

Banks are prepared to operate even if their computers crash, the power goes down and the phones don't work. Many banks, like City and One Valley, can operate from printouts of account information. But if you need more peace of mind, call your bank and ask about Y2K preparations and contingency plans or visit the bank's Web site.

If you rely on automatic teller machines, credit or debit cards or checks, you may want to get some extra cash if you're worried about Y2K glitches. If electricity or telephone service is not available, some or all of those payment options may be unavailable.

Most banks should have normal business hours even if there are problems, allowing customers access to their money. And bank accounts are generally FDIC-insured, money withdrawn can be lost or stolen, and bank statements and receipts preserve a record of your transactions.

Evans recommended withdrawing enough money to last a week. The federal government has printed and stored extra money in case there is a sudden demand for paper currency by people worried about Y2K.

"I think the greatest concern is that it could become a self- fulfilling prophecy," Evans said.

If you're uncomfortable leaving your money in the bank, consider travelers checks rather than cash.

Be wary of scams, such as people calling to "verify" your account or PIN numbers. Financial institutions are unlikely to call customers for this information since they have it already. Beware of anyone calling to replace the magnetic strip on your ATM or credit card.

If a caller convinces you the call is legitimate, write down the person's name and phone number, then look up your bank's phone number in the telephone book and call that number rather than the number provided by the caller.

If the caller does not want to provide a name and phone number or tries to talk you out of calling the bank, hang up. Odds are he or she is trying to scam you. If the caller gives a name and number, that information could also be phony.

Other scam artists might offer a "safe" place to put your money. Be wary of high interest rates, fees and the possibility the insurer may be nowhere to be found on Jan. 1.

Food for thought

Many area grocery stores have upgraded their systems to handle the year 2000. Store managers say they can operate even if their systems crash or the power fails.

"That's little old fingers punching the buttons," said Don Tate, president of Fas-Chek Supermarkets.

Tate said the company spent $3 million nationwide to make sure its warehouses are Y2K-compliant and has been advertising Y2K stock-up items. Kroger's Web site says that company is spending $29 million on Y2K.

"We really don't see where there's going to be a problem, but we're doing our thing to get ready for it," Tate said.

If the power fails, Fas-Chek has generators. Roger Allen, owner and manager of the Teays Valley Road Foodland, said his store has refrigerated trailers to protect perishable foods and a four-hour battery backup for cash registers.

If cash registers crash or the power fails, stores can still sell food by writing down the prices and adding them up, managers say, though they may not be able to accept checks or credit cards.

The Food Supply Working Group is one of more than 20 groups formed by the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. They say they do not expect a major disruption in the food supply because of Y2K.

The group recommends buying only as much food as for a typical weekend and storing only what you typically have in case of emergencies. Other organizations recommend storing some nonperishable foods and water.

Let there be light

Will the lights still be on at midnight on Jan. 1?

About 99 percent of the 3,088 organizations that supply or deliver electricity nationwide participated in assessments of Y2K readiness by the North American Electric Reliability Council, according to "Investigating the Year 2000 Problem: The 100 Day Report" recently released by the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.

But only 60 percent of those companies had their assessments independently verified. And 20 of the nation's 103 power plants won't finish Y2K preparations until the last quarter of 1999, leaving little time to correct additional problems.

Still, the committee is confident.

"Overall failure of the electric power grids and prolonged blackouts are highly unlikely," states the report, "not only because of the interconnected nature of the grids, but also because peak demand during the winter months will only be about 55 percent of the electric generation capability."

The state's two major power producers are American Electric Power and Allegheny Power. These two parent companies, which also operate subsidiary companies in the state, serve 90.5 percent of the state's electric customers, according to the state Public Service Commission.

According to November bimonthly reports to the PSC, AEP has finished remediation and testing for Y2K.

Allegheny has tested and fixed critical systems that affect utility service, according to its report. All but one remaining critical system (billing and rate analysis) have been fixed, they say, and that system should be ready by the end of the month. Allegheny's report states that 99 percent of all noncritical systems have been fixed, leaving a "punch list" of items to be remedied in November and December.

Should people buy generators?

Some people may decide their peace of mind is worth the cost. Some may have medical devices that must keep running even if the power goes down.

If you decide to get a generator, make sure you operate it correctly. Generators hooked to a building's circuits or wiring must be installed by a qualified, licensed electrician. If they are improperly installed, they can hurt or kill utility employees who think they are working on a dead line.

If you use alternate heat, be wary of fire hazards. Make sure you have proper ventilation.

GOT FUEL?

Companies that provide 93 percent of the nation's oil and gas participated in a June 1999 Y2K-readiness survey from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, according to the Senate report.

But more than 1,000 smaller companies did not participate. The committee expressed concerns about the readiness of the oil and gas industry - particularly small- and medium-sized suppliers - and the industry's lack of public disclosure.

The committee noted that 55 percent of the nation's oil is imported. Of the 10 largest foreign suppliers, seven are at medium, high or unknown risk of Y2K disruptions, the committee said.

Venezuela, the top supplier at 14.7 percent, is at high risk, followed by Saudi Arabia (14.3 percent) at medium risk. The next two largest suppliers - Canada (13.4 percent) and Mexico (12.6 percent) - are considered at low risk.

While some groups recommend topping off your gasoline tanks before the end of the year, the American Petroleum Institute says the Y2K bug will not affect gas pumps if they have power. A rush on the gas stations could create a temporary fuel shortage.

API also points out the nation's two-month oil reserve, inventories held by suppliers and the incentive to avoid lost profits for businesses with Y2K problems.

The Senate report, though, cautions that while the nation has more than two months of petroleum reserves, only a three- to five-day supply of petroleum products is available on a given day.

Many organizations do not recommend storing gasoline because it is dangerous.

If you rely on oil and gas for heating, you may want to contact your supplier about Y2K readiness before you look at alternate heat sources. Mountaineer Gas and Columbia Gas Transmission management say they are ready.

Water, water everywhere

The Senate's Y2K committee is concerned about water and, particularly, sewer operations. Both are dependent on electricity.

Only 51 of 250 members of the Association of Metropolitan Sewerage Agencies participated in a recent survey of Y2K readiness, the committee said. All 51 said they would be ready with Y2K preparations by the fall, but only 14 percent were ready when the survey was conducted in July.

In June, 92 percent of 614 companies surveyed said they are finished with Y2K preparations. In August and September, the Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies surveyed water companies and found that 75 percent were ready for Y2K and that most of the remaining 25 percent would be ready by October. Of 135 AMWA members - serving about 100 million people - 118 participated in the survey.

Consider bottling some water. You can get advice from Utne Reader's Y2K Citizen's Action Guide, which is available through their Web site and through The Cassandra Project. They recommend thoroughly washed plastic, fiberglass or enamel-lined containers.

Avoid containers that held chemicals. Sturdy plastic containers, like soda bottles, are better than those that decompose or break easily, such as plastic milk jugs and glass bottles. And lingering microbes in milk containers can contaminate stored water.

Even if you're a conservationist the rest of the year, consider disposable plates and silverware so you won't use limited water to wash dishes.

For the really Y-2-gungho, the Utne article contains information on getting water by draining your water tank and pipes and disinfecting water in the toilet tank.

Normally, even when water service is down, you can still flush the toilet if you add water to the tank. But if the sewer systems go down, sewage could back up into homes. The Utne article addresses this problem as well.

Despite potential problems, state officials seem confident in the state's water and wastewater operations.

Amy Swann, coordinator of Y2K compliance for the state Public Service Commission, said at a community meeting earlier this month that many West Virginia water and wastewater plants are older, mechanical systems rather than more modern, computer-controlled systems susceptible to Y2K.

Mike Miller, vice president and treasurer of West Virginia- American Water Co., said the company is ready for Y2K and has helped smaller service districts prepare.

"We know we're ready," Miller said. "We've tested everything to the extent we can."

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency says West Virginia- American was one of only 18 water and wastewater companies nationwide to participate in a Y2K-readiness and contingency planning exercise in July and August.

Don't touch that dial (tone)

Midnight strikes and confetti dances around the living room while you and your friends watch the big crystal ball on TV descend to mark the LAST (but that's another story) year of the millennium.

Then you have a brainstorm and say to yourself, "I wonder if the phone works."

So you wander over to the phone, pick it up, and the line is dead or there's a fast busy signal instead of a dial tone.

Relax. It isn't necessarily a Y2K glitch. A bunch of other people may have had the same idea and overloaded the system.

Swann said people should resist the urge to test their phone service or get online just after midnight. The system is not designed to handle so many calls at once. People who need emergency services may not be able to call for help if the system is overloaded.

The Senate committee's report says there should not be any problems with telephone calls made in the United States, but there could be problems with international calls.

People should also avoid calling 911 with Y2K-related problems unless there is a genuine emergency. The Senate committee notes that minor problems with telephone service and electricity can translate into major problems for 911 centers.

"The Y2K transition and arrival of the new millennium are likely to intersect in a manner that leads to a greatly increased demand for response from our emergency services," states the committee report. "This may be due to technical failures in essential services, the need for additional support at major public celebrations or any combination of unknowns that could result from the strange social dynamic that could potentially be created by public reaction to Y2K."

Harry Mitchell, a Bell Atlantic spokesman, said the company has worked with 911 centers in its seven-state area to make sure they are ready for Y2K. Bell Atlantic provides the telephone network and caller information to the centers.

Swann of the PSC said the state's E911 Council feels all but three 911 systems statewide are ready for Y2K. Those three centers will be ready by the end of the year, she said, and Y2K will not prevent any system from being able to receive and dispatch calls.

Here's to your health

Put off the rhinoplasty until after Jan. 1, don't hoard prescription drugs, and make sure your first-aid kit is well stocked.

The Senate committee says urban and suburban hospitals are largely ready for Y2K, but it is concerned about rural and inner-city hospitals that may not have as many financial resources. The committee recommends people avoid hospital stays when the year changes except in emergencies.

The committee is also concerned about the 50,000 physicians' offices and 16,000 nursing homes that have not provided solid information on Y2K. If you have concerns, contact your health-care provider.

The pharmaceutical industry is encouraging people not to stockpile. Such stockpiling could create a shortage of medications. The industry recommends that you refill prescriptions when you are down to a week's supply.

Even if pharmaceutical companies run into production problems, there is typically a 90-day supply of drugs in the system at any given time and several pharmacies that can fill prescriptions.

"The industry recognizes that a patient's use of prescription drugs is a medical necessity, and the industry has taken an active role to ensure that drugs' resupply will occur regardless of Y2K- related problems elsewhere," the Senate report notes.

The Odin Group is a research and advisory service for health-care information technology. The organization has produced a booklet for the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion on Y2K-related health tips. The booklet says people with implanted or in-home medical devices should contact manufacturers to make sure their devices are not vulnerable.

Keep paper copies of your medical and insurance-claim records, and make sure your first-aid kit is well-stocked.

If you have an elderly relative in a nursing home, check on whether the home is prepared for Y2K.

Going places

Y2K could cause transportation problems on Jan. 1. If you are going to be out of town, make contingency plans.

Traffic signals could be affected if they don't recognize the year 2000. Use caution at intersections with computer-controlled traffic signals.

Will railroad crossings operate correctly? Last month, a study of the four largest American freight railroad companies was completed and found no problems. The researchers did not look at railroad crossing controls because they do not use dates to operate.

Problems with cars and trucks are not expected, the Senate committee says, but there may be some glitches in public transportation.

Should you fly on New Year's Eve? It's a personal choice. The Federal Aviation Administration seems confident that their systems are ready. Some airlines are grounding some or all of their planes.

The Senate committee report expresses some concern about the Y2K readiness of some airports, including nine of the country's 50 largest airports.

Community approach

The Cassandra Project advises people to prepare for Y2K as a community.

Those who are very concerned about Y2K could talk to neighbors about preparing for Y2K collectively. Utne Reader's Y2K Citizen's Action Guide includes several tips for doing this. Neighbors can inventory supplies, list medical needs, help the elderly and set up a window "dot" system to check on people if phone service is out.

"Individual preparedness is for those who can," notes Paloma O'Riley, cofounder of The Cassandra Project. "Community preparedness is for those who can't."

To contact staff writer Chris Schnaars, call 348-5179.

-- Deb M. (vmcclell@columbus.rr.com), November 17, 1999

Answers

In the event of cascading Y2K disruptions...

This is the key of it all. Interconnectedness.

This article says "There won't be any problems, but here's how to prepare." And the editors still feel the need to explain the problem to us. This is not a good sign.

Is anyone else sick to death of reading articles like this? But thanks for putting it up, Deb, because it says so much about the relationship between the do-nothing media and the clueless public.

-- semper paratus (always@ready.now), November 17, 1999.

Hey ya'll it's all wrong. See, I saw this movie called Y2K" Year To Kill and it told what's gonna happen. I watched it 3 times and wrote the stuff down. Ya'll better buy machine guns. (Tehee)

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 17, 1999.

I thought potatoes came from Oregon and Idaho.....silly me!

-- Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

Kewl article.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

http://cnniw.newsreal.com/cgi- bin/NewsService?osform_template=pages/cnniwStory&ID=cnniw&storypath=Ne ws/Story_1999_11_16.NRdb@2@5@3@208

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 17, 1999.

Government officials worry about overreaction by the public, Koskinen said, but they don't want people to ignore Y2K.

"We're a little like Goldilocks," he said.

Yeah, taking a nap in little bear's nice soft bed...

-- mommacarestx (nospam@thanks.com), November 17, 1999.