The Fallacies of Factfinder Mythology

In Factfinder's earlier thread:

Factfinder attempts to smear and distort the truth and reality of the Y2K status of the oil industry. He does so by attempting to propose the notion that we've promoted "Myths". Because of the length his posted thread it is impractical for me to present a manageable response on that thread. It is also difficult to address them all on one thread. SO we will focus on his "myth #1" which is no myth at all but rather FACT... a fact that Factfinder doesn't wish to face because he's simply a biased polly troll.

In Part 1 we looked at Factfinder's alleged "myth #1" Now we shall look at Factfinder's alleged "myth #2"...

To wit...

Myth #2: "The strategic Petroleum Reserve is unusable due to contamination, etc."

Fact: The strategic Petroleum Reserve can, and has been used. See the information provided below

..."572 million barrels of oil are stored in huge salt caverns in Texas and Louisiana." ---------------

RESPONSE: NO ONE >>> NO ONE >>> NO ONE EVER said that the SPR was unusable. In the words of Ronald Reagan to Walter Mondale in 1984 campaign debates... "Now, there you go again..." and so Factfinder I say the same to you... "there you go again"... twisting, deceiving and distorting facts. Gee, you're sure NOT living up to your name...which only underscores the fraud that you perpetuate.

So what did I state... ??? Well pretty much as you see below...

From your own cut and paste, your source states the oil is stored in huge salt caverns. Salt is a problem in the refining process that must be removed. This is not done easily, in part because refineries are not technically geared for such a contaminant...so special adjustments have to be made in the refining mix. This takes time to reset a refining system. It is NOT something that can be done with a flip of a switch. My father's refinery was involved in processing some of this SPR oil a few years back... it was not a pleasant time... and the company refuses to mess with it ever again. Too costly to mess with, too much of a hassle even if it was a slightly cheaper price. No refinery is really set up to deal with the contaminants found in SPR oil...it's some of the dirtiest and nastiest oil found and very much a problem and pain to process...but it can be done... takes longer to set up and get it going though... OF COURSE... will the pipelines be operating to bring it out and to a refining plant???

CONCLUSION: Here again we have caught Factfinder twisting, distorting the facts. We never said SPR oil was unusable, just hard to refine and would take time to set it up and use it. It took about 6 months to get SPR oil out to refineries after the Gulf War announcement. Again, Factfinder wants to spin and distort the facts. Frankly, Factfinder simply can't get the facts straight or is deliberately spinning false hoods. (i.e. 'lying') You be the judge folks. I just didn't have the time to do any websearches on the issue of problems in refining of oil contaminated with salt and other unusual mineral deposits.

Oh and one final point, Factfinder. Refineries are tuned for specific types/grades of oil. For instance western refineries are geared more towards oil from shale rock in the Rocky Mountains. Pennsylvania oil is totally different from Saudi Arabian Light crude or North Sea Brent crude. West Texas Intermediate is different from Pennsylvania crude. Ohio, Indiana and Illinois is slightly different from Pennsylvania crude, etc. etc. A refinery in Illinois processing local oil has to reset if it later gets let's say WTI from the Lone Star state. This simply further underscores the reality that refineries don't just flip a switch and can then process SPR product.

What is particularly galling is to have my position falsely maligned when I never made such a claim to begin with. No one else did either that I can recall, though the DD character may have implied or insinuated, but as I recall she indicated that from a practical stand point this is true and it is true practically speaking. As I had said before, my contacts who've used SPR in the past told me pointblank that it was a nightmare to refine and that it just wasn't worth the companies time or efforts to ever use it again, it certainly wasn't worth it the last time they tried it.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 17, 1999

Answers

RC: Just want to convey my thanks for your efforts to clarify the oil situation, which to me has emerged as a major concern post-y2k. Factfinders' tactics remind me of conversations I've had with certain political zealots who also twist, ignore, and distort facts to suit their own purposes. They have an agenda, and they will do and say whatever is needed to push it and persuade the less-knowledgeable to their cause. I wonder what Factfinder's agenda is.

-- Cash (cash@andcary.com), November 17, 1999.

Thanks RC. I appreciate this information very much. I really think the achilles heel is OIL. Our ability to survive in the future will be directly proportional to our ability to access and refine oil. The talk is of the Iron Triangle, but even more basic is Oil. Without it EVERYTHING in the world stops. No lights, no heat, no food, no transportation, no crops, no harvesting, no processing.......... Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), November 17, 1999.

R.C., Thankyou so very much for getting this information out and helping us who do NOT know the inside of the oil business. Oil is everything in this modern world of ours and if that goes down then everything else goes down with it. All I know is one thing, part of my growing up, was on the upper Texas coast in the Houston area. It is a fact that lots of the oil and chemical plants are super old. Sometimes in going by them, some of them it seemed were half covered in rust. If you just looked at them, you could see how old some of them were. May the Creator have mercy on us!

-- Kayla Michael (kaylam@jetcity.com), November 17, 1999.

I totally agree with Taz. Oil/energy will be the deciding factor regarding the continuation of "the world as we now know it". I'm not optomistic at this point. The only silver lining that I can see is that a severe reduction in the availability of petro products(along with damage to distribution systems) will be that the fuel cell technology will become an emergency, national security item to get into widespread production and use.

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), November 17, 1999.

R.C.

I, too, thank you for your timely responses regarding the oil situation. I have tried to read all the posts, but I do have a question that doesn't seem to have been answered. If this large oil shortage (36% to 46% availability of today's supplies) should come about, how long will this likely last? I could foresee forced mass transit by the military for people involved in National Security type jobs (food supplies/movement to groceries, police, fire, essential services type of things), but how long before the gas/deisel supply could be brought back up to say 75% of what we use today? Enough that manufacturing and businesses could get on with it? Any ideas? Could it be done in time for spring planting and harvesting in the warmer, Southern states?

Thanks, and thanks again for your input on this forum.

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.xnet), November 17, 1999.

To All posters above.

Thank you for your comments.

To Valkyrie,

You asked:

"If this large oil shortage (36% to 46% availability of today's supplies) should come about, how long will this likely last? but how long before the gas/deisel supply could be brought back up to say 75% of what we use today? Enough that manufacturing and businesses could get on with it? Any ideas? Could it be done in time for spring planting and harvesting in the warmer, Southern states?"

Answer: No one knows. We don't know the severity nor how many will fail that will shut down a well or a pipeline or a refinery. The odds of shutdown (based on the math) are high enough to cause significant and justified concern. Some first hand sources say its certain based upon their experiences in the preliminary assessment-testing phases. Other sources are less certain but think the probabilities of moderate to severe problems are similar to the National Weather Service issuing a Hurricane Warning or a Tornado warning based on Satellite/Radar and eyewitness reports. I'd guess that is a pretty good analogy.

I have said repeatedly that the odds seem very high that oil supplies will dip at least the 2.2% drop that we saw in the 1973/74 Arab Oil Embargo. That seems to be an extremely reasonable expectation based on the first hand reports and insider leaks at a dozen major oil co's many are multiple sources within some oil companies that re-confirm each other, some don't even know each other or that anyone else in that company had talked with me.

On the other extreme end would be 80% loss of supply...and this would be simply a theoretical based on some data/article a long time ago which stated that 20% of US domestic oil supply came from "stripper" oil wells that are too small to have had embedded systems installed. They just don't pump enough oil to make it economically viable.

So, my estimate is somewhere in between 2.2% and 80%... How long it would take to recover? Estimates I've heard range from a few days to 10 years, again depending upon the damage done, especially in the oil fields themselves. Refineries and pipelines might be able to recover fairly quickly IF they had oil, but if significant oil wells shut down and lose their pressure, new wells might have to be drilled and today our drilling capacity is but about 10% of the 1980 levels. (rough estimate there, I'd have to dig out the article on one of the archived threads here.)

No One knows how its all going to play out. Behind the scenes, the guys who are actually doing the hands on work, designers, etc. are highly concerned and one designer-remediator told me that it all depends on chips that no one has ever documented at installation or is still perhaps unknown. (too many were installed without recorded schematics, espec on wells).

Best advice: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst as best one can.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 17, 1999.

ANSWER::::: 15% to 20% reduction in Oil supplies for 12 to 18 month period.

Question::::: What is the implication of same???

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), November 17, 1999.

K

Your guess is as good as mine. You may be right on the %. I've about given up on trying to tie in %'s to a specific number or range other than that the number will be at least 2.2% higher (the 73/74 Arab oil embargo crisis).

Implications?? You tell me.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), November 18, 1999.