HERE HE IS!!

Get ready for some laughs!

This guy gets my vote as the "Most DWGI" person I have EVER heard!

He's more ignorant than Koskinen, Bob Cringely, and Andy Ray put together.

He says he wants to "protect from embarrasment" the economist who predicted a recession (undoubtedly Ed Yardeni). But Ed Yardeni was on CBS National Evening News just one week ago, and he didn't seem "embarassed" then!!

Then he asks (about preparers), what is it that WE know that the rest of the world DOESN'T know!!

LOL!!

Real Audio copy of the show

If you want to skip to the good parts, the Player has a clock on the bottom. You can scroll ahead to just after 1 hour into the show ( 1:03 to be exact ) where he starts talking about Y2K, and this continues until a bit after 1:10 (over 7 minutes total).

If you need the RealPlayer download here for free

Enjoy!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 15, 1999

Answers

Hawk, yours are good posts on the 'What?' thread, below. Hang in there. But be polite.

-- silver ion (nomore@ddy.forme), November 15, 1999.

Hawk,

Your "eyesight" is better than any other living creature. (Or, is that the eagle?)

Either way, thank you, Dear Heart.

-- Laura (LadyLogic@aol.com), November 15, 1999.

That was terrifying. We decided he sounds like Howard Stern on Soma drug.

-- silver ion (nomorons@home.here), November 15, 1999.

For us RealAudio-challenged types, might someone post a few of Mr. Brinker's more clueless comments (assuming there's enough room on the MIT servers)? Thank you.

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), November 15, 1999.

LOL!!

Glad you guys liked it! Yeah, this guy is so obsessed with dollars and cents that he has no clue. He likens the effect of Y2K on the economy as the same as the Persian Gulf War! I think we've already spent more on Y2K than any event in history haven't we?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 15, 1999.

That guy is really scary. I wonder if he considers himself to be a hoarder of digits?

-- Robert King (robking@dell.com), November 15, 1999.

LOL Hawk, this guy is more arrogant than even you could describe. Heck, he makes Mr. Koskinen look like a doomer.

Here are a few additional comments he made but are not direct quotes:

We are "date change junkies" HOARDING food, water, cash and fuel. Repeats HOARDING food and water. Apparently he has never heard of the words contingency or storage.

- my comment: hoarding water, that is an interesting thought

Stock market does not care. Stock market does NOT care. (he repeats himself alot)

If the century date change is going to be Armageddon or the end of the world we would have already seen a market reaction.

He is "PROTECTING" a well known economist (Yardeni) by not naming him. LOL

Markets do not react, markets anticipate the future.

For those of you who are out there fanning the flames of paranoia, if you don't really believe it, it is a scam.

This is the type of guy I would like to introduce to my shotgun in a few months if it comes down to that.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), November 15, 1999.

Thank you all (I think). I know I'LL sleep better tonight knowing our economy is being influenced by such a stable individual. (BTW, if he's worried about people retaining water, I think Midol helps that. Oh, you said HOARDING water. Never mind.)

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), November 15, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Money Talk. You know, one of the things that you learn if you are in the canyons of Wall Street a good part of your adult life is that the stock market is a market of anticipation. The stock market is a market of discounting the future into the present. And, I think that one of the amazing things that we have observed about the Y2K scare effort, e have observed, of course, there is a cottage industry out there scaring people all over the world, for that matter about Y2K. There are people out there that are hoarding supplies. This is a fact. There are people out there buying for example, that are buying food as much as one year to two years in advance. They are hoarding food supplies. They are hoarding water. They are hoarding cash. They are preparing for Armageddon. Why? Because the computers will undergo a century date change in a few weeks. And this is what's been going on out there. And yet, if one looks at the heard and the soul of the stock market, it is unequivocal. The stock market anticipates the future. The stock market discounts the future into the present.

We've talked about this in the past when we've referred back into 1990-91. Persian Gulf War, you may remember. There was this feeling that if the bombs started falling in Iraq that, well, the stock market, it's going to be all over, forget about it, blood bath. What happened? The stock market started to go up before the bombs started to drop. And by the time war broke out in January 91, the market was already well on its way. By the way, it's never traded back down there since, I should add. So what happened? The stock market anticipated the Persian Gulf war was going to be an easy walk over victory for the United States, which it was, and as a consequence it was not going to have any negative implications for Wall Street. And it did not have any such implications.

And when you study what is happening to the market today, you are drawn inaccurably [sic] to the conclusion, that the same thing is happening all over again. That is, the stock market is discounting the future into the present and it is telling us that those who are hoarding food supplies years into advance and water and fuel and cash and all the other things that the century date change junkies are ordering that they are basically spinning their wheels because the stock market is telling us it doesn't care. The stock market is telling us, every day that goes by that it does not care about all of this business. How many days are remaining until the Century Date Change? Not many. 31 in December. And what about 16 in November? What's that, 47 days? Forty-seven days until the Century Date Change. 47 days. Let me ask you a question. If the Century Date Change is a big deal, if it's Armageddon. If it's the end of the world. If it's any of those things, would we not have already seen a market reaction? Of course we would have. Have we? No. NASDAC at record highs. S&P 1.5 percent below record highs. Wilshire 5000 about 1.5 percent below record highs. No. We have not seen anything close to a market reaction to Y2K. Even though we were told that Y2K was such a dastardly event that it would cause a recession! Yeah, there was one so-called prominent economist out there I'll save the embarrassment for the gentleman of naming him I'm going to protect him, by not naming him, it's so embarrassing He's predicting a recession because of Y2K. What?? We're trying to get the economy to slow down so we don't have to raise rates at the Fed. Oh, brother. It's hard to believe.

So this is the lesson in all of this. Markets don't react. Markets discount the future. Markets anticipate. And that is what the market is doing in this particular case. And so, those of you that are thinking of going out and panicking because of Y2K, ask yourself, what do you know that the rest of the world does not know? The people that I know in the computer profession who I respect tell me Y2K is not the end of the world. Y2K is not Armageddon. Of course there will be problems and dislocations, but we will deal with it.

And what will happen to all of those that are out of the market missing this current phase especially to the extent that it is being influenced by the tech stocks. What will happen to them? Will they manage, because of their paranoia over this will they manage to miss the whole rally? Maybe they will.

As to those that are out there, fanning the flames of this paranoiaas those that are out there telling people to stock up selling in connection with this. Let me just say this: I hope you truly believe in all of this stuff because if you don't, it's a scam you know. If you don't really believe it, it's a scam, you know. It's sad.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), November 16, 1999.

Dancr - thanks for transcribing the broadcast. I used to list to Brinker all the time, but haven't had much opportunity this year. I had the impression a month or so ago that he was guarded about the possibility of a bear market and that y2k could be one of the reasons. Sounds as though he has found polly religion since then. His forecasts rely on an economic model he has created; perhaps the model has no way for accounting for y2k type impacts.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), November 16, 1999.

"Of course there will be problems and *dislocations*, but we will deal with it."

Do not panic. You will now be dislocated to your local warming center. Please go quietly to the white bus. One carry-on bag per person. No talking, please. We are dealing with it.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 16, 1999.

He's sifting like the rest of us.

Did anyone hear his remarks about the Rite Aid fiasco a couple of weeks ago? I was amazed at his 'transparency' on the topic. Amy Leone, are you out there to help enlighten folks about this?

If you listen carefully to the most recent broadcast, he was extremely cautious in his advice to folks calling in with chunks of money wanting to dump it into the market in one shot. He's sticking very hard to the dollar-cost-averaging tactic at this point. That alone speaks volumes to me.

In my opinion, people should always take advice from money managers with a large grain of salt, do their own research and have their own opinion. He was addressing this talk to a very specific part of the puzzle. Interesting, yes - but I have a hard time fathoming the constant urge to define people as if they're sporting black hats.

-- flora (***@__._), November 16, 1999.

Dancr,

Thanks for typing that for the people who don't have audio. Did you use shorthand, or are you just a supersonic typist?

I recommend listening to the recording for those who can do it because the tone of his voice adds a lot to it. (It is only about 7 minutes)

He is obviously angry and views us as a threat to his precious investments, even though there is still plenty of food for the sheeple in the stores if they want it.

I find his attitude very offensive because he obviously considers the stock market to be more important than our safety and security.

There are still a FEW things in life that should take priority over the stock market, and I think survival is definitely one of those things.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 16, 1999.

Thank you, Dancr. You obviously have more patience than I (and faster typing fingers, too).

And dear, dear Hawk, you misunderstand -- the stock market IS more important than our safety and security! EVERYBODY knows that! This is THE NEW ERA! This is THE NEW PARADIGM! P/E RATIOS DON'T MEAN DIDDLY! EVERYBODY JUMP IN! THE BUSINESS OF AMERICA IS THE STOCK MARKET! WHAT'S GOOD FOR GM.COM IS GOOD FOR AMERICA! IT'S GOING TO EXPAND FOREVER! DOW 30,000! DOW 40,000! DOW 50,000! YES! YES! YES! GREED IS GOOD! I THINK I JUST MESSED MYSELF! (Whew. Want a cigarette?)

Yeah, I agree: It's the ATTITUDE I have a hard time dealing with. Y2k or not, I think a LOT of these people are going to wind up messing their pants. I used to think the 80's were the decade of greed -- I've changed my mind. Maybe it's a meme. (GOD, I've come to hate that word!)

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), November 17, 1999.

LOL I'm here! That is pretty good. Yeah, that seems to be the tude these days, and I'm having such a hard time with it that I'm missing the boat I guess. I still wonder what the hell is going on with this obsession with materialism and instant gratification. I'm a DGI in that area!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 17, 1999.