Industry Specific Y2k Aftershocks-Very Informative : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

An excellent study from George Washington Univ.
Showing past present and future industry specific Y2k status.
Systemic Y2K Aftershocks

-- Rainman (, November 14, 1999


I found the "Industry by Industry Analysis" of potential future effects to be pretty shallow. For example, the Oil Industry analysis talked about well shutdowns, oil exports from Venezuela dropping off 70% with similar problems causing slowing down other countries oil exports. The fallout from this? Gas prices soaring to $3.00!!! With rationing!!! Come on. The fallacy of these sector by sector analyses is that they don't seriously examine one sector's effect on other sectors. The result of an oil senario such as the one described is going to be much more drastic and far reaching than a mere doubling of gas prices and rationing. The make believe dialog at the end of the paper is laughable. The John and Mark characters, a Silicon Valley executive and an investment advisor conclude:


John: You're right. I realize that with all of the hassles going on at work, at least my neighbors and community are holding strong. I feel sorry for the isolationists. Locking oneself up, which there was no need for anyway, just ends up breeding discontent. I may be having a little time on my hands soon if things don't clear up at work. I am glad that we paid off our mortgage. I can brush up on my gardening skills. Hey Sandy, do you need anymore volunteers over at the nonprofit group?

Mark: Count me in too. With my investment business slipping, I am thinking about getting into some other lucrative profession. Maybe I could work with the homeless.

-------------------------------------------------------------------- Come on!!, who was this funded by, Hillary Clinton and the "It takes a Village Foundation" ??

My alternative dialog:

John: My company's office was gutted by fire after we laid everyone off and shut down last week. It was going downhill ever since the stock price collapsed in January. The engineers were afraid to come into work anyway with all the carjackings and robberies.

Mark: I had to shut down weeks ago. The phone was ringing off the hook with people angry about their portfolios. I reminded them that investing in the stock market carried risk and that I had advised them of that before, but nobody wanted to listen. They kept threating to sue. One guy said he was wiped out and was going to track me down and kill me. I disconnected the phones and closed up the next day. There wasn't any business anyway. Nothing but bad news these days.

John: Why hasn't the government done something to get us out of this mess? Everyday there is another welfare riot somewhere. I'm afraid that when the summer comes, this city is going to burn. Someone has to take strong measures.

Mark: I heard that the National Guard is losing over 100 people day to desertion. The rumour is that an armory in L.A. got completely stripped after the sentries let their friends in. The police are down to half of their normal staffing and they won't go out on a call unless there are at least 4 of them together. I guess a lot of people are bugging out of the city.

John: I was thinking of going up to bother's ski lodge but with the rationing I can't get enough gas together to make the trip. Besides, I think only the major roads are being plowed and he's off the beaten path. Maybe after the snow melts.

Mark: Shall we heat up another pan of Ramen?

John: Sure.

-- DB Cooper (dbcooper@somewhere.else), November 14, 1999.

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