Peter Jennings (Long gas lines and Solar Flares)

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Peter Jennings had a report last night about Solar Flares. I didn't catch it all, but somebody in my community talked about long gas lines in 2000 (the possibility of it) being reported on the program. Did anybody catch the full report? Please elaborate.

It addition to all of this, I'm thrilled to report that my community house (located in a rural area) is having propane tanks installed as we speak. I managed to convince them despite all the happy face reporting in the media. I brought up the fact that in addition to y2k, we have other potential threats such as solar flares (that may take the grid down if bad), terrorists, riots and martial law. It worked and I'm thrilled. My girlfriend will be with me over the rollover. It can't get much better than this. I'm lucky to have people that get it. The potential threat of solar flares was the ringer in addition to terrorist threats. We've heard that solar flares could take down the grid even if y2k turns out to be a non-event. This was enough evidence to prepare more aggressively. I'm pretty much clamping up about y2k. I don't want anybody to know where I'm going or that I'm prepared. This makes some people mad, but hey, it's not like they haven't been warned. There are no excuses.



-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), November 12, 1999

Answers

Got mountain bicycles?

*Sigh*

Darn! Missed him.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.


Congratulations on your preps. You'll understand if I tender my fervent hopes that you've wasted your money. ;)

I am genuinely surprised that the solar flares issue swung it. It seems a little "wacko" compared to the credible threat of Y2K. Is it simply because it was on TV and was therefore given credence? If so, god help us come 21-Nov-1999 and NBC's Y2K movie.

Thinking about it, taking preps against pretty much any "natural" civilisation killer event probably seems wacko, even to doomers. Major meteor strike, huge solar flare, ice age (although we DO seem to be working on that one...) or even a reversal in the Earth's magnetic field. We're overdue for that last one, and when it does happen (and it will), every piece of electronics on or near the planet will go "fzzt". Think about that. It will happen. Maybe in ten thousand years. Maybe tomorrow. When it does, we lose all of our electronics, globally, at the same time. In other words, we'll lose several billion people and drop back to the iron age, albeit with lots of lovely but useless consumer appliances to hit each other with. And yet we don't worry about it at all, most people don't even know about it, and those that do (like me) aren't worried about it because it's so utterly unlikely that it WILL happen tomorrow.

I'm starting to understand how non-online pollys feel. Without access to a variety of news sources and search facilities, it's just too big, too abstract a problem.

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.


I didn't see or know about Peter Jennings coverage, but I was just coincidentally reading more about the grids and the solar flares were discussed. The information read that the "threat" of this particular cycle is that the plants are operating on far more grids in a financially miserly move. It's a far more vulnerable nation facing the storms versus the last time period.

That information goes right along with a Westergaard article I read yesterday in which it was said, increasing dependence on technology without proper infrastructure will bring about even more vulnerability ahead.

What is not being mentioned is the cat that was let out of the bag during the war against Serbia to every nation and terrorist on the globe: Optic fibers dropped on the grids are an effective means of disabling a nation.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 12, 1999.


Colin

I am genuinely surprised that the solar flares issue swung it. It seems a little "wacko" compared to the credible threat of Y2K... a reversal in the Earth's magnetic field. We're overdue for that last one, and when it does happen (and it will), every piece of electronics on or near the planet will go "fzzt".

I just have only one thing to say. Calling solar flares "wacko" (when it has already happened it will be just worse in 2000 according to scientists) tells me your thinking is obscure. The reversal of the Earths's magnetic field seems a lot more "wacko" than what we know about "solar flares" and what they can do. Do some homework for crying out loud. Any idiot should easily see that a combination of things (y2k, solar flares, terrorists, you name it) all at once are potentially life threatening. Granted if it really gets bad I will probably still wind up dying, but hey I'll survive for a time even if it's only 3 or 4 months longer than those that don't prepare. To me, it's worth it, but apparently not for you. Ok, fine. Then don't prepare.

The intelligence of mankind never fails to impress me. That's why I'm prepared.

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), November 12, 1999.


I saw it but wasn't able to grasp it all. Seems like I recall Jennings spoke of the solar storm coming and the magnetic pull would be effecting our power grid. He gave an example of earlier solar storms causing grid failure in Canada? (I could be wrong about which country it was). He spoke about it not only possibly knocking out the grid but also satellites.

-- Marsha (MSykes@court.co.macon.il.us), November 12, 1999.


Marsha:

You're right - it was Quebec. Here's a good recent story from the TORONTO STAR on this topic...

[reproduced for fair use educational and discussion purposes]

October 11, 1999

Ontario to test space storm alarm

System could stop sparks from flying into electricity grid

By Peter Calamai Toronto Star Science Reporter

OTTAWA - Ontario will be the first province to test a new federal alarm system against a looming electrical assault from space that could cause blackouts and damage to the electricity grid.

The alarm system, developed in time for a cyclical peak in such space storms next year, is designed to warn exactly where the provincial electricity system will be hardest hit.

A three-year study by Ontario power engineers and federal researchers concluded that parts of the provincial electricity grid could be knocked out ``in unusual circumstances,'' said Luis Marti, a researcher with Ontario Hydro Services, the company that now operates the transmission system.

An example would be a large space storm striking when a line was out of service in one area, the researcher explained. New operating procedures have been issued.

``It's a matter of just being very cautious. You don't want to have a huge blackout here,'' said Marti.

The new alarm system gives Ontario a better chance of heading off trouble from the most violent space storms that happen only once a decade on average. The storms, which overload the Earth's magnetic shield, are caused by gas eruptions from the sun's surface.

These magnetic storms create rogue electrical currents in long-distance power lines and can overload transformers throughout the electrical grid.

Such a storm blacked out Quebec for nine hours in March, 1989, with damage running to $1 billion.

Ontario rode out the 1989 storm without trouble because the most intense activity occurred in an east-west band north of the province's main generating stations and key transmission lines.

The new defences rely on a detailed computer model of how geomagnetic storms of various severity would hit individual sections of Ontario's transmission grid. The model was developed by federal scientists from the Geological Survey of Canada and power engineers from the five largest provincial utilities.

David Boteler, the federal geomagnetics expert who directed the research, compared the new warning system to improved weather forecasting.

The first custom-tailored forecasts are scheduled to be operating by March, one of two peak months every year for damaging geomagnetic storms. However 2000 is also expected to be a bad year over-all for space storms, since it marks the maximum in the sun's 11-year cycle of eruptions.

------------------------------------------------------------------------ `It's a matter of just being very cautious.' - Luis Marti Ontario Hydro Services ------------------------------------------------------------------------

The federal scientists receive a half-hour advance warning of the intensity of such space storms from a U.S. satellite that keeps a constant eye on the sun.

That forecast is then fed into the computer model of the power grid, producing estimates of the extra electrical currents that the storm could create in power lines and in equipment like transformers.

As transformers become saturated with the extra current, generating stations have to call on reserve power to keep the voltage steady. If the voltage swings are too wild, devices like capacitors and relays start to malfunction.

``It would certainly cause some funny things to happen,'' said Ben Li, chief operating officer for the Independent Electricity Market Operator, the new agency responsible for over-all system reliability.

Li said the Ontario power grid would most likely be operating in what is called ``safe posture'' when a space storm struck because of the forecasts of higher geomagnetic activity already made available.

Safe posture includes postponing maintenance so power stations aren't out of service, tightening the permitted voltage fluctuation in normal operation and creating more slack in the system by throttling back on low-cost sources like hydro power as well as bringing more oil-fired capacity online.

The Quebec grid was particularly vulnerable to space storms because of long transmission lines and the use of certain direct-current control devices. Since 1989, however, the system has been revamped.

Ontario's transmission lines are shorter than Quebec's. However, the line stretching 150 kilometres from the Bruce nuclear power plant to the intersection of Highways 7 and 427 could pick up a substantial induced current during a geomagnetic storm, said Peter Dick of Ontario Power Technologies, a research agency controlled by the provincial power generating company.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

A recorded 48-hour forecast of magnetic activity from space storms can be heard by calling the federal geomagnetics lab in Ottawa at 613-992-1299. The forecast is updated every hour.

[ENDS]

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 12, 1999.


Paula:

Interestingly subtle point you make there.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), November 12, 1999.


From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Paula said: Optic fibers dropped on the grids are an effective means of disabling a nation.

What does this mean? Please, say it another way.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), November 12, 1999.


Tonight,at around 8 P.M. central time,the weather channel on cable said the Solar Flares could stop the electrical power for the East coast for DAYS.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), November 12, 1999.

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