Will it be a "5", "8" or a "10+" on the impact scale?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I am convinced that we will experience a 5 or a 6 on the impact scale that many are using. I believe the possibility of a 7, or 8 (8= 10 year deppression) while not high, is sufficient that I am preparing for it as best I can as well.
However, reading many of your posts, I realize that a large number of people on this forum believe we will experience a "10" (10 = collapse of U.S. Government) or worse.
I have to say that my mind numbs up on me when I try to comprehend such a possibility. It seems inconcievable to me. Do you really think that it could be that bad? If so why?
-- JoseMiami (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 11, 1999
Once the panic has set in.....society as we know may very well fall apart. The animals that already live in our cities will have yet another excuse for showing what they are capable of. The Rodney King riots were just an example of people taking advantage of a good thing. Not enough cops. That means FREE stuff. Not enough cops. That means I can kill the a-hole that lives next door and blame it on the mob. The BEASTS that dwell in the inner cities are sharpening their claws. Filing their teeth. They can't wait to sink their fangs into some unprepared, innocent person. What better reason than "I am starving" to go down the street to the more affluent areas and eat like "they" do. Fear the uncontrollable. Be ready to have to do "WHATEVER IT TAKES". Don't think for a second that your local "hoodlums" would think twice about putting a cap in YOUR head. Especially if they KNOW they can get away with it...Don't gamble on it. Get out of any Big city. Death awaits the procrastinator. The Reaper is rearing back his blade. Don't be a victim. If you go out, go out ON your feet. Be ready to STRUGGLE for survival. Don't worry being "comfortable". Worry about SURVIVAL. If we ARE talking TOTAL destruction of ALL we know and love, then know that you will need to know how to make it with the BASICS. Then add the luxury items you want. The wave IS coming. It is the biggest wave the world has seen in history. This wave doesn't crash on the shoreline. It will bury towns 2000 miles inland. Whole countries will be washed away. BILLIONS may drown. BUT, then again.....I may be wrong. I doubt that wholeheartedly.
-- doomed (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.
for the sake of the future survival of the human race,I pray for a 10+
-- think/longterm/survival (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 11, 1999.
I think a "10" is extremely unlikely, but concievable. I'm guessing about an 8. But I think anything as mild as a 5 or 6 is possible.
-- Gus (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.
OK, let me ask you a question:
Considering the interconnectedness and computer dependance of the food industry, financial interests, manufacturing, public utilities and governmental agencies, if it's just a 4 or 5, won't it eventually end up a 10? How will we be able to avoid a devolutionary spiral if even 5% of our CRITICAL systems don't work? Would it take the failure of more that 50 of our fortune 1000 to bring our whole economic house of cards tumbling down? What about our international trade and JIT inventorying - what chance do they have of surviving when you consider the lack of Y2K remediation abroad? What about oil?
IMHO, if it starts out at even a 2 or 3 in any of the above, it will eventually end up a 10 in all the above. Oh yes, and if it gets to be a 10, you'll probably find Muse, FL a lot safer place to be than in Miami.
-- Bugging (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 11, 1999.
Based on polls taken on this forum over the past 18 months we have averaged in the 7-8 range. Even here I think very few believe a 10 will occur. Very few of us could survive a 10. Most have attempted to prepare for a 7-8 even when they believe it will be somewhat less. A 10 is our worst nightmare.
Most polls show mostly a normal bell-shaped curve with only 2 or 3% at a 10.
Averages won't mean much to me if you only experience a 3 in your location while I'm experiencing a 9-10.
-- tc (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.
There are always variables one of which being that shoot to kill orders could be declared on anyone venturing forth to do mayhem, in which case a volatile city might be a quiet and peaceful place to experience Y2K within.
Variables are what will determine the Y2K scenario and its long term aftermath.
Another variable is that the military will flash some food in the face of strong and youthful mayhem wannabes, and instead of burning the town down the wannabes will fight in a line to join the military, and Uncle Sam can babysit them for us all. We then all pulling out some yard chairs outside prepared and unprepared alike to sip ice tea and discuss Y2K openly without fear of "them" knwoing we've some beans and rice.
-- Paula (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 11, 1999.
Yes TC, few of us could survive a 10 (yours truly included) and that's probably why we don't "believe" a 10 will happen. But if Y2k is even moderately disruptive, I suspect the domino effect will eventually bring our whole infrastructure down.
Golly, I'd like to be wrong on this one.
-- Bugging (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.
From ny experience here, only a select few HOPE for a 10. You have to keep in mind that the people that are working on the problem in the IT world don't want TEOTW or any close proximity.
Many GOOD IT people are working on the problem, and they are the ones we should thank for preventing major problems from occuring. Yourdon,etal may have started the ball rolling, but in my own opinion, they have not contributed to the solution. It is the ones digging through the code and actually fixing it that should have our gratitude.
-- Lurking in the sidelines (Alw@ys lurking.com), November 11, 1999.
I'm expecting a 4-6 but things could easily slip to an 8. I think momentum is our biggest enemy. Once things start moving in a particular direction they tend to keep going in that direction. Herd mentality is no different...
-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), November 11, 1999.
Yes, Lurking, few want a 10. I'd like a big fat ZERO myself, but that isn't realistic. If the truth be known, we started way too late with too many lines to fix and too few coders to do it. IMHO, only a major miracle from on High could prevent the total collapse of our infrastructure.
-- bugging (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 11, 1999.
Lest we forget, there are barbarians without as well. There are those in this world who wish us dead or worse, simply because we have and they don't (it's our fault, see...)Y2k would seem ideal for a coordinated campaign of terrorism or even outright war. When chaos is the norm, anything is attainable. Conscience, honor and the western concept of a just war are alien precepts to a majority of the world. What do I think? 10 +.
-- chairborne commando (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.
I think that ,psycologically, the degree of impact will be determined on the status of the power grid. If there are only isolated power disruptions I predict a 4 - 6 , but if the power grid goes down it could be 7+. Power loss will pretty much let the cat out of the bag so to speak because it will be the most noticable disruption and carry the most impact.
-- loveitinthecountry (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 11, 1999.
I don't think it will take a miracle. You only have to keep an open mind and look at the whole picture. Even companies that have completed ALL of their Y2K plans have contingencies in place IN CASE of external failures. I equate that to making preps for Y2K. The contingencies should not be made as proof for some companies that they are not prepared for Y2K.
-- Lurking on the sidelines (Alw@ys lurking.com), November 11, 1999.
Timing will be the deciding factor.
No way will systems hold together indefinitely, if they are seriously interrupted or seriously damaged. The veneer of social order will easily begin to peel apart if panic sets in. And panic will set in with widespread increases of disturbing accidents, fires, food and water shortages, business and industry failures, banking failures, skyrocketing gas prices and hunger and thirst.
The longer it takes to fix the failures, the greater the numbers of people who panic. Some forms of panic, like panic buying will be sparked quickly and easily around the Dec 30th through Jan 12th time period.
Some urban areas could easily see largescale rioting early on and continued lawlessness for many days if not stopped by law enforcement or public action.
Timing is the critical element. And it becomes more critical with each passing day if systemic failures catch the public unprepared.
At this point we do not know for certain what will fail, nor do we know how long those failures will last. We do not know which failures will not be fixed, nor the consequences of failed unfixable systems. But we do know that the odds are not good if failures are widespread and we do know that keeping a low profile in these circumstances could be the fundamental difference between life and death.
The special formula for success, for a long time now, can be summed up with a simple phrase: "Image Is Everything." This might no longer apply. The new formula for success could be: "Timing Is Everything."
My view on the 10 scale is:
I'm hoping we only get a 5.
But expecting an 8.5 sliding down to a 10.
-- snooze button (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.
Well, Lurking, I sure hope you're right. But just last year, there were still billions of lines of code that needed to be corrected. Major companies were hiring coders of questionable competence from all over the world, including some from places like East Raghead where they wish us no good.
So how good a job did those folks do? From reports I've read, under the best of circumstances, with American coders, errors of one per 1000 lines or so were showing up AFTER remediation, so how many errors still remain in the literally billions of lines of remediated code on which we have done no end-to-end testing - and will those glitches cause catastrophic errors? Maybe not. We could get extremely lucky or get that miracle from on High, but as Spock would say, "It wouldn't be logical."
-- Bugging (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
Nine out of ten people on this planet will probably die over the next year.
-- Damon Devine (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.
Someone said that power was the key. It's important. But not the key. If we see the grid go down for any length of time it's game over. But if we loose ANY of they critical sectors (oil, railroads, etc.) it's also game over. We are TOTALY reliant on JIT. That will fail if ANY of the critical sectors fail. Me a 10+. Nope. I think a 6 -8, but it could easily slip.
-- anonymous (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
Well Anonymous, I'm not sure there really is a single, or even several "keys," nor for large agencies do I expect the work-arounds will really work. What I expect we'll see is a general degredation in every sector - with some areas more serious than others. JIT is totally computer dependant, and I doubt if there is a viable work- around. For instance, can you schedule the JIT inventory of an automotive assembly plant by hand? I doubt it. How many bespeckled scribblers, pouring over huge daily ledgers would it take to do that?
Then lets look at SSA. Is writing 30,000,000 checks each month by hand even possible? Where would you find the qualified personel to even undertake such a venture?
Those are just two of literally millions of problem areas. IMHO, it's the interdependant complexity of the whole systen that's going to do us in.
-- bugging (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.
Let us not forget the millions of SMEs who have done nothing at all = big time unemployment = additional stress socially and in all supply chains = massive hit in Internal Revenue collections.
Pharmaceuticals - exposed re imports = medicine shortages = is your life saving medicine on the new, post y2k, production schedule? Heart meds, blood pressure meds, insulin, anti-depressants, sleeping pills, hemophiliacs, AIDS meds, transplant anti-rejections meds, cancer meds, serotonin altering meds, antibiotics, etc.
Health Care - exposed. Good chance health care as we know it will tank. Workarounds will abound. Your quality of service and access to "modern" medicine will vary according to location. HMOs and InsCo's? Where will you go, who will see you, how will you pay for it?
Oil - exposed. Transportation, air, land, and water. Plastics. Fertilizers. Electricity.
Food Chain - out of season fruit & veggies. Will crops get into the ground? Will they be harvested? Will processing mills be working? Will they have packaging? Will giant cattle feedlots still "work" - Mcdonalds feeds us nearly 100,000 head of cattle a day. Will the meat processing industry be hit - 50 million plus turkeys are getting ready to be our Thanksgiving meal, will it be possible next year? What about fryer chickens and eggs on demand?
Check out the Dept of Commerce' import/export lists. Check out the CIA's or Gartner's ratings of various countries. Check out the status of ocean shipping and ports. Do you understand _why the USA has budget surplus, & _why that surplus is in such precarious status? Have you thought through the ramifications inherent if/when 50 million social security checks per month don't make it? Have you throught through the Fed's policy of running printing presses 24/7?
Clothing - how much of what you are wearing was made in the USA, the fibers, the cloth, the thread, buttons, zippers, the finished products? How about shoes and boots? Do you think a major shoe mfgr or jeans mfgr will still be able to exploit offshore cheap labor. The USA is part of a data and supply chain extending world wide.
Whether it will be a 1 or 10 or anything inbetween is immaterial - we cannot actually prepare, the best we can do is change our lives now, demanding less, practicing self-sufficiency - realizing that the life we lead now is about to change for the different.
-- Mitchell Barnes (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
You should have prepared for a 10. If you are wrong, you will die.
-- (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.
I hope for a 10,what a rare oppurtunity to actualy be present at the fall of a powerful imperium.The chaos will be delicious.The carrion flys will gorge and the corpse fattened dogs will replace burgers as our favorite food.The vain tears we shed will be washed away with blood as we descend into barbarism.What an crazy time to be alive!
-- apokoliptik (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
I am very disturbed by those hoping for a 10. I have had several bad things happen to me in my life, and afterwards was grateful for the changes they made in me. But, I would never go looking for that kind of trouble, and certainly would never ask it for anyone else. If God sends me troubles in the course of things (my parents dying, a difficult birth, illness,etc.) it has been possible to slowly recover, learn, grow. I do not have the wisdom to pray for terrible trouble for others. Thus, my prayer for y2k is; Lord, have mercy.
I don't know if I will survive what's coming, but our preps have been done with the hope that they will also be used by our kids, and our friends. There has to be a balance between appropriate self preservation, and accepting the will of God, who will make decisions that will benefit everyone they touch.
I rode ambulance and rescue for a few years, I've seen people die, and I always was struck by the blessings and gift of 'presentness' they gave me. ( the only exception is with suicides, who leave only darkness and despair, and always upset our crews for a long time.) There are a lot worse things than dying when it is the right time.
-- seraphima (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.
Gary North says if power goes down for six months it's TEOTWAWKI. I think this is nonsense. I suspect not many of you have lived in the gettos for any great period.
If the power goes out rioting will begin within the hour in the large cities. Do you remember the scene shot from a helicopter during the L.A. riots? The truck driver pulled out of his truck and almost beaten to death? No? I'm sure many truck drivers do. Screw the JIT system. It means nothing if the truckers won't enter the combat zone.
If power is not restored within 72 hours I believe most of the largest cities will be burning. Not only will you have tens of thousands of candles burning for light each night but how many trash fires will be set by people trying to keep warm? A water crisis might mean something besides will we have enough to drink. Will we have enough to maintain pressure in the hydrants? Will communications hold up to let the F.D. even know where the fires are?
I'm not saying there aren't many wonderful people here but I know there are also several hundred who have never even heard of Y2K who, after the Nov 21, NBC movie will begin their preps for the event not by storing rice and beans but by marking targets for the upcoming blackout.
Note in this scenerio no major Y2K flaws are really needed. Banking is great. The grid has only a three day blackout. Wall Street and the financial sector are right on top of everything.
But, hypothetically, can the country survive with the loss of it's 100 or so largest cities?. I use to say "I don't know" to most Y2K questions, but now I do know if nothing else, it's going to be interesting, at least in my part of the world. I'm staying right where I am as I figure the visuals will be great.
BTW I think there will be many Y2K glitches that combine with the scenerio I've tried to explain. My vote is 10+
-- thomas thatcher (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
Never have so many wished so hard to be so wrong.
-- Get Beans!
-- Greybear (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.
I believe it will start out as a 5 or 6, but could turn into an 8 before the end of the year because of the precarious state of the US economy. The overvaluation of the stock market and levels of consumer debt are unprecedented. If the US consumer stops borrowing more money to buy goods, the world economy would go into recession or depression fairly quickly. The number 2 and 3 economies (Japan and Germany) are already quite weak. China is also weakening. Other Asian economies are dependent upon high exports to the US.
-- Danny (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
---my views haven't changed very much over the past three years or so. this is my best guess, in a time scale: week before christmas, rising rapidly to a 2-3 in a lot of areas, last minute hordes finally sorta getting it, like bozos who wait for last minute in hurricanes to get it weekend of rollover, dropping back down to a 1 or zero as those who have prepared are securely hunkered down, and those who might be panic shopping are too late, so they go home. not much left valuable to buy, and a lot of folks who were supposed to show up for work call in sick or quit or just don't answer the phone at home. maybe a 75% absentee rate. first day of rollover, scattered accidents caused by chips, and brownouts and blackouts cause widespread jaw dropping in the sheeple/ polly community-the situation over the weekend has now risen to a 5 the news media is in full spin boogy, it's "cyber terrorism", not y2k is the official line government weather channels are now emergrency broadcasting stay at home messages, and still trying to avoid panic big cities finally get nailed with real biowarfare chemtrail spray, not the weak strains they've been using-folks start dieing and getting sick, government spin is a dangerous "flu" is going around
monday, it goes bonkers-the majority of the workforce doesn't show up for work, and people trying to get anything at all to buy start breaking into stores. fires break out all over, and the king declares federal martial law for "just a few days" tues 30% of police and national guard fail to show up, stay home with families-a 6-7 scale wed riots and fires have made the big cities unliveable, but traffic jams and chemical spills and guard checkpoints force people back into whatever buildings they are close to-we're at an 8 now thurs despair sets in, those trapped in town have no hope, try barricading themselves in. pitched gun battles between small suburban citizens neighborhood watch groups and large organized gangs. the gangs have tremendous full automatic fire weapons and grenade launchers. mixed results, but a lot of dead and wounded on both sides, but unfortunately the suburban homes burn with the big cities. the suburbanites attempt to leave and go further out, leaving the majority of their possessions and stash at home. china has blockaded taiwan, and launched quite a few surface to surface missiles at tapaei. they have warned japan to remain neutral or suffer nuke rockets. same with the US. they are unopposed. north korea sets off a few small battle field nukes in the south. russia moves out in all fronts, retaking many eastern european nations. they warn the US to stay neutral, and to prove their point, a small hidden back pack nuke is set off in the western desert. the US stays neutral. friday--it get's worse, the federal government collapses for all practical purposes, so do the states, the scale goes off the charts nationwide to a 15, this lasts about 3-4 years, with a full generation to reach 1940's level of mass technology again-IF we can avoid all out world war. If NOT, that's it, the planet doesn't make it. Michio Kaku's scale of us being a zero civilization almost to a one is true, we don't make it to a one. the roaches and flies win.
naw, I ain't a doomer, not a bit
-- zog (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.
hidin' under the bed...
-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), November 12, 1999.
Hi all ... Got here late, BUT , have one thought to add to the pile. With all those people eating those bean preps, I am glad I live in the country, on a hill top where the wind blows most of the time. HATE to be in an appartment building , confined to ALL those noxous fumes and NO AC working !! Hayseeds have SOME advantages, after all . Eagle
-- Hal Walker (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 12, 1999.
7 is likely. While I don't expect a fire, I still have fire insurance, so will prepare for at least an 8 on your scale...
-- Mad Monk (email@example.com), November 12, 1999.