I have spend several years reading, preparing myself, and trying to prepare others. Originally I thought I would see a gradual rise in preperation this year as disbelief unwound. I now believe that the coiled spring of disbelief remains tightly wound, and much of what I see going on is winding it tighter. Too many things seem to be happening now that indicate the approach of a peak in sentiment. A few I see -

Clinton and Koskinen's conference denying the US will have Y2K problems. It seems to me this is the perfect example of "Don't believe something until it is officially denied."

The repeal of the Glass-Segal act (put in AFTER the 1929 crash to try to "get the horse back in after leaving the barn door open."

The recent IPO's sky rocketing and making the Average Joe a millionare. UPS is a great example, your delivery man now has more wealth that most of us. Next it will be the "garbage man's" IPO. (PS I am NOT dissing UPS employees, the ones I know work HARD. This is just an example of a "peak" phenomena. If you like, choose Martha Stewart instead, the Internet's next "Bill Gates".)

The media's continued denial that there is any story worth reporting about Y2K except those that involve those "crazy hoarders".

The recent spate of movies that are of the horror genre pull the biggest box office. "Sixth Sense", "Blair Witch Project", "The Haunting", etc. Is it taking more and more to get our thrills when everything else like the economy and stock market are going our way? After the next big Crash, I wonder what movies will be popular?

The intransigence of the Polly and Doomer positions. The middle of the road (the center of the Bell Curve and therefor the most likely scenario) is not a popular place to be. You are reviled by both sides.

There are many, many more that could be mentioned. What do you see? Is the tightly coiled spring about to break, or will we see the pressures gradually unwind?

-- VegasBoy (Heck@whadoiknow.com), November 11, 1999

Answers

"Originally I thought I would see a gradual rise in preperation this year as disbelief unwound. I now believe that the coiled spring of disbelief remains tightly wound, and much of what I see going on is winding it tighter."

No, disblief isn't tightly wound. People have the right to review information or lack of information and come to their own conclusions. Just as one can't fathom why people would vote on this or that political party ticket it doesn't mean anything is tightly coiled. It's not a unviversal mind or thought out there.

We heard from, I believe it was Alan Greenspan last month that since Oct 1 failures were esculating and the situation "barely manageable." We've read that the "just in time delivery system" takes 3 months from start to finish. This is indicative that within these last 50 days it is too late to prepare or an early and longer famine would be induced. We are in the potential "self-fulfilling prophecy" stage, and I believe the "gobmint" is doing all it can to keep the food and available products distributing to the larger number of people for daily living.

I don't perceive any build up pressure. It looks to me like we are simply "in it" pretty deeply now as the failure rate moves into an unmanageable stage.

Remain discreet, finish preparations so you're not out there amongst the Christmas thugs or affecting a system moving into fragility, be alert, and putter about.

You sound like a man who needs a good project to do about now.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 11, 1999.

Hey Vegas........... I would have to side with you. It seems kinda eerie this late in the game. People have put themselves in precarious situations. Not sure if it's genuine disbelief or the deep inside hope that the angle they've chosen is the correct one.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), November 11, 1999.

Nobody knows. Nobody CAN know, until it happens.

-- Not Even (the@Shadow.Knows), November 11, 1999.

It does seem like the bets have been placed on one and only one possible outcome: Business As Usual. Sure hope that is the way things turn out. (But I doubt that is going to happen.)

50 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), November 11, 1999.

Jack,

Will you PLEASE stop saying that Y2K can't be fixed. Like any techincal problem it CAN be fixed, just not in time...

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), November 11, 1999.

Another example in general, not specifically Y2K, might be the Microsoft "monopoly" decision. People could have thought "Oh, no ... another ATT breakup, 17 different operating systems coming ...." and so forth. Instead, this decision didn't even slow the stock market down (well maybe a for an hour or two). I don't know what will happen with Microsoft either --- but the point is that people absolutely refuse to believe ANYTHING will upset our "good-times" appelcart. Even Clintons "Betrayal" (Bill Gs book about Technology to China) got mostly shurgs.

There is no chance that we will see "... the pressures gradually unwind?"

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), November 11, 1999.

My Dear Paula (incidently that is a lovely name)

I hold it true, as you said. People have the right to acept the facts (or no facts) and to prepare or not prepare. But the converse holds true also. If this is a "real" stiuation coming up. And they are wrong. Then they have the right to die of starvation also. Of this I think you must agree. After all, it is you who states that they have that right of not acepting a need to prepare for trouble. In this flurry of rights, their children loose out also, because mommy or daddy made that choice for them.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_buner@forty.feet), November 11, 1999.

It certainly appears that TPTB haven't left themselves any sort of graceful exit and as a result have staked it all on maintaining the "appearence of normality" as we head down the home stretch into Y2K. Therefore there can be no official call for serious preparation. It wouldn't appear "normal" to the people at large.

And as a result of no preparation if there are problems, they will be worse than they could have been if the majority of the public was aware and prepared.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), November 11, 1999.

WW,

No graceful exit is about right. With the latest lies from Klinton, the goon.gov types have NO EXCUSE and NO OUT once the balloon goes up.

The angry backlash will be something to behold.

Kookster

-- Y2Kook (y2kook@usa.net), November 11, 1999.

No graceful exit is about right. With the latest lies from Klinton, the goon.gov types have NO EXCUSE and NO OUT once the balloon goes up.

The angry backlash will be something to behold.

I doubt there will be many people left to make any "angry backlash."

-- (its@coming.soon), November 11, 1999.

TECH32 said:

Jack, Will you PLEASE stop saying that Y2K can't be fixed. Like any techincal problem it CAN be fixed, just not in time...

To which I say:

If the plane will take five minutes to fall to the ground, and if it takes ten minutes to fix the problem, THE PROBLEM CANNOT BE FIXED.

George

-- George Valentine (georgevalentine@usa.net), November 11, 1999.

its@coming and George V.:
What are you saying? We are absolutely doomed? Do you two live by your words (i.e. spending all your money on vacation and unusually luxurious items, making peace with your maker, saying goodbye to all your loved ones) or are you just talk?
Since "THE PROBLEM CANNOT BE FIXED" and you "doubt there will be many people left," I'm really curious to know how you are spending your last days.

-- Mori-Nu (silkenet@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

Mori-Nu:

I don't think that anyone is saying they know WHAT the outcome is going to be. Only that the broken code cannot be fixed by when it needs to be, and so we will enter 2000 with broken code. The result COULD BE a real mess, hence the need for personal preparation, to be on the prudent and cautious side.

Simple enough?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 12, 1999.

KOS, read what they wrote. I'm specifically responding to the comments of two people (neither of whom is you).

-- Mori-Nu (silkenet@yahoo.com), November 12, 1999.

What are you saying? We are absolutely doomed?

People who do not prepare are absolutely doomed. Those who do may survive.

Do you two live by your words (i.e. spending all your money on vacation and unusually luxurious items, making peace with your maker, saying goodbye to all your loved ones) or are you just talk?

Yes, I "live by my words" but I don't do any of the stupid things you mention above. I am preparing and will continue to prepare until the very end, because I hope to survive. Unfortunately, most people, including many GIs, will not have prepared adequately and they will die.

-- (its@coming.soon), November 12, 1999.

You're entitled to your opinion and your right to speculate. Best of luck!

-- Mori-Nu (silkenet@yahoo.com), November 13, 1999.

BTW, I don't consider saying goodbye to loved ones a "stupid thing," if you truly believe you mightn't be able to see one or all of them for much longer.

-- Mori-Nu (silkenet@yahoo.com), November 13, 1999.