He's a Liargreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
He's a Liar
I have a friend who believes y2k will be a "bump in the road" (he also states a level 4 on a scale of 10). Ok, fine, but then he told me that he is preparing for the worst. I told him that he has to be liar to prepare at all. Who would prepare for something less than a recession? Other than paying a few bills off, few would seriously consider preparing at all. This doesn't make logical sense. I used an analogy, namely chess. Let's say you notice your opponent can make a strong move against you. You insist that it will be a bump in the road if he does indeed make the move against you. But then you turn around and make a defending move to safeguard against his threats. You defend because you actually believe that you could lose if he got the move in. Therefore, your actions would contradict your beliefs. I think this is a fair analogy, who out there agrees with me? According to Paula Gordon's site this is what each level means:
Figure 3. Impact of Year 2000 Technology Problems in the United States
0 No real impact
1 Local impact for some enterprises
2 Significant impact for many enterprises
3 Significant market adjustment (20%+ drop); some bankruptcies
4 Economic slowdown; rise in unemployment; isolated social incidents
5 Mild recession; isolated supply/infrastructure problems; runs on banks
6 Strong recession; local social disruptions; many bankruptcies
7 Political crises; regional supply/infrastructure problems, disruptions
8 Depression; infrastructure crippled; markets collapse; local martial law
9 Supply/infrastructure collapse; widespread disruptions, martial law
10 Collapse of US government; possible famine
End of Survey Notes:
-- Larry (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 1999
I'm a 6.5 on this scale.. some scales i'm as polly as a 4.
-- lisa (email@example.com), November 10, 1999.
I AM A STRONG 18 ON THIS SCALE
-- MONGO (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 1999.
A rational explanation for making Y2K preparations
Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.
Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.
-- Stan Faryna (email@example.com), November 10, 1999.
Put me down for an 8.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 1999.
Think about it.. The way I figure, if we do get a 6-7, how long before that slides into 8,9,10...
The reason I say this is not due to some macabe fantasy, or such, but because of the decline in human civility--particularly among Americans. Granted, their are many people who would do the right thing and do their best to pull through the rough times of a 6-7, but given the moral bankrupcy and apathy of a growing minority of the populace, I fear that the longer disruptions go on will have a porportional effect on increases of acts of violence and lawlessness in all forms. Vicious circle comes to mind.
Too many people are on the verge of bankrupcy or homelessness, some are only 1 or 2 paychecks from this unfortunate situation. That being said, the question then becomes, what percentage of those people would join in the problem or strive to a remedy, especially if their are diminished or even non-existent Gov. assistance? That's a question I might not want to ponder on too long.
-- CygnusXI (email@example.com), November 10, 1999.
On the Washington User's Group, I guess I fall closer to a 9 or a 9+++. I see the scales as logrithmic, rather than linear, anyway.
-- mushroom (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 1999.
I've been about a 7 for the past year, but I'm afraid the fed/media INaction will force an 8.
-- Dan G (email@example.com), November 10, 1999.
Color me a 6 - 8. Do I qualify as a doomer? I don't think so, and definitely not a "tinfoil".
I consider myself to be fatalistic, but not a doomer. What do y'all think?
-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), November 10, 1999.
I am 0 to 1 one either scale.
-- Andy Ray (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 1999.
I'm concerned that those below 3 are actually confusing this with the IQ scale.
-- Dave (email@example.com), November 10, 1999.
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 1999.
To answer the original question: why would someone prepare for something they don't think is going to happen?
Leaving aside that chess is totally deterministic, it's not often that I bet the wealth and health of my loved ones on a game of it.
Work out the state/reward/odds for pulling your money from the bank, as I presented in a previous post. If you view leaving your entire savings in a bank over Y2K as a gamble, then the rewards (the interest) are shrinking rapidly. Whatever odds you pick, at some point it make "logical sense", to pull your money because the rewards have shrunk so much. I've pulled mine BEFORE my own logical point. Why? Because I don't like gambling with such high stakes.
-- Colin MacDonald (email@example.com), November 11, 1999.