I realize that this forum attracts many different kinds of people. So actually this is for the nebulous in between fence sitters and procrastinators as well. Take a moment and contemplate the unthinkable. What if you're wrong. Just consider that. Now what would you do if we're right...even marginally?

Just curious.

-- Ynott (, November 09, 1999


You're not right.

Patient Regards,
Andy Ray

-- Andy Ray (, November 09, 1999.

And who would the "we" be? Some of the forum regulars insist they are not doomers. Even Dianne claimed to be a "5" last week.

-- Butt Nugget (, November 09, 1999.

If all hell breaks out ... then we who have been warning and preparing will be an important stabilizing force within our communities. If all goes well except for minor inconveniences that are quickly overcome, we shall be rediculed I guess a bit more .... but we shall know how close we all came to the edge and didn't go over because of a lot of good ole American ingenuity and hard work. We're at war folks, only we don't know it. It's a cyber global war .... and as in any war, it takes courage and grit to win.

-- Lee Barber (, November 09, 1999.

What if space aliens land and suck our brains out?

What if a comet hits our planet?

What if Richard Simmons grows 100 feet tall and starts attacking the cities?

What if Andy grows a brain?

What if I get voted handsomest man of the century and get my picture on People nagazine?

Who worries about stuff like this...none of it is gonna happen...

-- Y2K Pro (, November 09, 1999.

Andy, if Y2k is a dud and my credibility re: Y2k is shot ---- SFW!!! It'll be over! Y2k, if a dud, will fade away and folks will forget. What people I know will weigh are all the things I've said since I've known them -- my rational, reasoned approach to life -- and my equally rational comments about this one-time event. They'll say, "Well, Kurt, you were wrong. Let's play golf."

-- Kurt Ayau (, November 09, 1999.

If the doomers/semi-doomers/cautious are wrong, only Andy Ray and CHARLIE REUBEN (cpr) -- A WORLD-CLASS REAL ESTATE SALESMAN! will remember. Or care.

If we're right, we gonna have one real big HONKIN' MEME FRY!

(I went out yestiddy and caught me a whole BUNCH of 'em! Them's TASTY little suckers! Ummmmmmmmmmmmmm! Them's good eatin'!)

-- Paul Prudhomme (Down.on@The.bayou), November 09, 1999.

Andy Ray, if you are unable to seriously consider the question posed here, then why are we to seriously consider anything you have to say? We have all been patient with you as well. I for one listen and evaluate any serious response I read here. If you want to convince me, then for a moment take me seriously and answer my question. In the past we have answered yours.

Now Y2K pro, I am SURE you HAVE for a flickering moment considered yourself the handsomest man in the universe....and how did that feel? What did you think? Again, you can take a moment and seriously consider the question posed above. You may find it incredible and unbelievable, so what? Science fiction sells! Take a moment and consider this topic as if it could really happen and tell me what your reaction would be. I am interested in any response from folks who do not now believe.

We have told you that we will face the laughter, we will not suffer long lines at the checkout as we are already stocked, etc. We have considered being wrong and answered you seriously. Can you not do the same?



-- Ynott (, November 09, 1999.

If what? If we don't see Hersheys, Whirlpool, the State of Nevada, Bang and Olufsen, Samsonite, Oxford Insurance, having crippling IT problems, then those who have warned about such problems will be laughed at?

Not to mention, problems with payroll systems, renewals, contract employee's salaries at the World Bank persisting for months, not oh, 2 or 3 hours.

What about railyards and docks? We've just had problems at two of those. The U.S. East Coast and in Europe.

Comms? There's MCI-Worldcom and Chicago.

It's already happened, the "doomers" are off the "what do you do if it doesn't happen" hook.

The open question is, how bad will the main event be?

The pollies, de-bunk-heads really should argue with ATT's Y2K Officer. ATT spent $650,000,000.00 solving this non-problem. They were on the news last night worrying about failures in systems not under their control. Similarly Citigroup spent $950,000,000.00 on this imaginary problem.

Finally, my clients are far more alarmist and doomer than I am. I can't tell you who they are but they are on record as seriously worried about their industry. Compared to them, I am a pollyanna.

Fortunately or unfortunately, there are lots of large corporations that are far more worried than I, ATT and Citigroup are two.

Even the DC Water Board, dragging in their "locomotive sized" generators is more concerned. Watch their actions!

Take care everyone,

(I'll get that next WRP out soon, sorry to be late as usual but you know how IT people are. Ever optimistic that they'll have the time.)

-- cory (, November 09, 1999.

Ynott, you're asking a bunch of ostriches who's had their heads in the sand since birth "what does it feel like to be human?"

-- (, November 09, 1999.

What if we're wrong... about what?

I'm very confident that I'm right when I say that no one knows the future.

Besides, even if y2k isn't disruptive here in the US, we will still experience reprecussions from overseas messes. Most Americans think that all the stuff in Wal-Mart just materializes there magically. At best, y2k will enlighten them.

My own very best-case scenario is chronic shortages of everything except short tempers, starting -- well, perhaps, not until after January.

Worst case = Infomagic.

-- you know (Im@right.aboutthis), November 09, 1999.

This is a test of character requiring sacrifice, courage and patience.

-- snooze button (, November 09, 1999.

OK, if nothing else, at least Y2K Pro -- if you read his post rather than skip over it as I'm surea lot of people usually do -- has essentially stated that he is male.

I don't know where the rumor started that Y2K was a woman, but it was always very difficult to believe that anyone with that much piss and vinegar could be other than male.

Now, in the case of Andy Ray, he also is a he, in spite of his effeminate manner and girlish giggles. As Porky in Cellblock D can affirm.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 09, 1999.

Thanks for that cory -

Ynott your intentions are noble, but send the trolls back to Tearascleine.

-- willow (, November 09, 1999.

KOS --

Only in a huge barrel of grapes!!

-- grapestompe (, November 09, 1999.

Personally, I think it is about a "3" but my business sense and fiduciary responsiblities have prepared me for an "8."

"It's not the odds but the stakes"

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.anon), November 09, 1999.

Sandwhich is a perfect example of "prepare for the worse, hope for the best".

-- (, November 09, 1999.

Insurance and self-insurance has always been a large % expenditure of businesses and households. Since y2k inflicted damages are not covered by 99.9% of insurance policies (read your fine print exclusions carefully) we need to do more personal "self" insurance (preparation).

Heurestically, I would do nothing but the business analysis compells me to act decisively.

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.anon), November 09, 1999.

BTW, my attorney reads all those fine prints for me and says to look for exclusions with vague wording such as: "foreseen computer, software, or technological failure."

So if you knew there might be a chance that failure would happen and you didn't take prudent precautions or mitigate it, you basically will not be covered. (not intended to be legal advice as I'm not an attorney)

Of course things like this can be argued in court as Xerox is doing against its insurer right now.

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.anon), November 09, 1999.

I didn't prepare for me I prepared for my 82 year old mother, my 90 year old father-in-law. My 2 children. Some friends and neighbours, my family came from wwI and wwII ravaged Europe, the famines of 1890's and the great depression. Ya if you don't think you should prepare you haven't seen hunger or most likely even travelled off the NA continent.

Good Luck Charley Brown

-- y2kread com (, November 09, 1999.

We live in a complicated time era that will bring to the table a wide spectrum of social and technological problems. Currently, our focus is on the Y2K scenario but this is just a small piece of a much bigger puzzle. Whatever your levels of preps may be, you will not be scorned for planning for the future. There is a tendency to attach the Y2K label to every problem that arises when in fact we are seeing proportional increases. My guess is that society will bless the awareness that Y2K was responsible for bringing into our lives. If, IF Y2K is just a bump in the road, the rest of our lives will still be topsy-turvy.

-- Truth (at@the.ready), November 09, 1999.

Andy Ray, Butt Nugget, and y2k pro are really getting kind of old. In the spirit of the geneological dicussions a few threads back, I would say that their ancestors must have been present when somebody first used the now-common phrase, "Bite me."

-- Dave (, November 09, 1999.

One thing's for sure. If the doomers are right, they will probably be blamed for y2k.

-- coprolith (, November 09, 1999.

Perhaps the reason Andy Ray, Butt Nugget, and y2k pro are Pollys is simple lack of imagination. They simply cannot imagine anything other then what is.

This would explain why no polly has yet answered the simple question "what if you're wrong". This would require imagining a world other then the one they are familiar with.

C'mon guys, it's a simple hypothetical question. Can't you guys handle it? Isn't there one polly out there willing to state the obvious answer to this simple question?

How pathetic

-- thomas thatcher (, November 09, 1999.


For every complex question, there's an answer that's simple, obvious and wrong.

Pessimistic estimates range from a recession less severe than 1973-74 (Yardeni) to the fall of civilization (Milne). Mortality rates for the next year or two from y2k range from hundreds to thousands (many on this forum) to billions (Milne). Estimates of oil import curtailment range from < 2% (Yardeni) to 15-20% (R.C.) to 70% (D.D. Reed) to "NOT ONE DROP" (Milne). Riots/roving armed gangs incidents range from 0-1 (many on this forum) to everyone within 5 miles of a 7- 11 (Milne).

Now surely you can see that these are huge ranges. Where on all these ranges is the point where "doomers" are "right"? Cory Hamasaki on this thread claims we're *already* living the nightmare, he has the cases to prove it. He says you're already right. We just haven't noticed, somehow.

Look at it another way -- how many people here do you suppose will *require* their preparations? If they can get by just fine without them, are they still "right" because there turns out (let's say) to be a riot in Detroit the day the Lions won the Superbowl? One thing I'll guarantee -- there will be problems, which will be collected assiduously by those here to point at and claim they were right after all. There are always problems.

-- Flint (, November 09, 1999.


I agree there is quite a range of beliefs between different pollies. So I assume each polly should answer for themselves. Let those who discouraged preping food because they believed there would be no major food shortages resulting in mass starvation respond by telling how will they feel if hundreds of thousands die from starvation due to food shortages.

Let those who advised against purchasing alternate power sources and/or fuel because they knew there would be no major infrastructure tell us how, if they are wrong, they would deal with the knowledge that large numbers of people have frozen to death because they were swayed by polly arguments.

Of course no one would feel any guilt if misery or suffering were caused by advise they did not give. I for one, would like to know how someone would feel if they knew that others are suffering and/or dying as the possible result of having been swayed by their advice should it turn out to be wrong.

Doomers have answered this "what if I'm wrong?" question dozens if not hundreds of times. Why can't a polly take a shot at it?

(Now for the replys asking me to define polly, or correcting my grammar or spelling, or anything other then answering the question)

How pathetic

-- thomas thatcher (, November 09, 1999.


I was giving the ranges expressed by the *pessimists*. Presumably, the pollys don't think anything will happen at all. At the very least, if you think anyone is a polly who anticipates anything *short* of the end of the world, then everyone on this forum is a polly except the few glazed-eyed nitwits.

Personally, I *expect* about a 2-3, but I'm *prepared* for a 7-8, just in case. If it turns out I actually need those preparations, then I was wrong. I'm prepared to be wrong. I think we should all be prepared to be wrong.

-- Flint (, November 09, 1999.

"What if space aliens land and suck our brains out?"

Well, from the quality of your most recent posts, I'd say that it's already happened to you.

How about a little more rational thinking "Pro"...

-- Deb M. (, November 09, 1999.

I believe that Thomas has put his finger on it. Pollys are unable to comprehend anything outside their small universe. I feel sorry for them. "There are stranger things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy" paraphrase....

If you are unable to comprehend or imagine how your world could change, then you will suffer much in this lifetime, for I guarantee you that MANY things will change. Space travel was invented in my lifetime...undreamt of and unbelieved by many..even to today. The earth is no longer flat....

Y2K Pro and Andy Ray are incapable of seeing the other side of the argument...Butt Nugget only attacks like a buzzard...I am now satisfied that there is nothing worth listening to on the other side as they have absolutely no ability to hear the "entire" picture. So uninformed a person or persons can hardly render advice on this or any forum.

Thank you for your attention and the wonderful and thoughtful responses that I did receive.

Remember, "Until they know how much you care, they don't care how much you know...."

The Pollys on this forum have further pursuaded me to prepare. Thank you for that as well.

-- Ynott (, November 10, 1999.


Been a "5" since last year at this time. But, my personal "10" is Global Thermonuclear War.

On a world-wide scale, may just have to notch up to a "6" beginning in December.

In any case, it's time to revisit the issue of "mobility..." anywhere that's local.

Got Mountain Bicycles?


-- Diane J. Squire (, November 10, 1999.


Thank you for a reasonable and intelligent response. They are getting pretty rare these days.

I was going to say that I was wrong and that one polly at least has posted a response. But since you've acknowledged preping for a 7-8 I'm not sure if you can properly be called a "polly". Having preped for a potential 8 'just in case' it can be assumed you would not mock others who would do the same.

I'm waiting to hear from those who constantly tell us how dumb we will look for having preped for anything more then a 2-3 days storm or those who discourage any type of preping at all.

Butt Nugget, Y2K Pro, Deano, Andy Ray. Can any of you guys handle the question? I mean queshun. Now that gives you some spelling to attack. The only way I believe we'll ever actually get a response from any of you. Wait a minute. My mom is ugly too. You can resort to name calling now. As for actually getting an answer to the queston from a polly? Yeah, right.

-- thomas thatcher (, November 10, 1999.

I'm with Flint on this - as usual, though with a difference. I'm expecting a 2-3 but I recognise, theoretically speaking, that it could be worse. The difference is that I am not prepared for the worst that could happen but only for what I expect will happen, a 2- 3. IMO a 2-3 is a non preppable situation. My preps - made in my darkest doomer days will get me through the potential for pre- rollover FUD reactions going mainstream at year end (e.g. temporary food shortages). Nothing more. And I don't think this will be the fault of Y2K pessimists if it happens, more likely a media doing their thing. Beyond that, I'm at the mercy of my judgement that collective self-interest has and will continue to enable us to manage the situation. One thing I do not want to do is contribute to the problem by spreading FUD, last-minute stockpiling, cashing out etc.

If I'm wrong, badly wrong, then yes I'll be toast, along with 99% of the rest of the population. But seriously, if I hedged my life risks by thinking stakes all the time, I'd never leave the house.

-- With the sheeple on this. (, November 10, 1999.

C'mon thomas. No need for that. Your mom is probably a nice person.

For the record (once again with feeling this time) I've never suggested anyone 'not prepare'. I have said I find it ludicrous to:

1) quit you job and move to the stix 2) drain your savings and retirement to buy beans'n'rice and guns'n'ammo

To me that's just TOO extreme. Plain and simple.

I don't think there is a need to REALLY prepare for a recession. It's a recession - big deal. Things might be a little tougher and harder to come by, but no big deal.

If it's a 10 (like some of you think) then I don't think it matters what you have stashed. A 10 doesn't sound like anything I want to be a part of anyway.

AND if it really is what Revelations talks about, then it definitely doesn't matter, right?

AND if it's bio-chemical warfare or nukes, (again) it don't matter.

I've just seen to much good news come across my desk the last year or so to believe Y2K will be anything other than a BITR.


-- Deano (, November 10, 1999.

Good answer, Deano. Expect $20 bonus in paycheck.

-- J. Rendon (dude@with. contract), November 10, 1999.

Deano, you say you "find it ludicrous to:

1) quit you job and move to the stix 2) drain your savings and retirement to buy beans'n'rice and guns'n'ammo."

Approximately what percentage of this forum's posters and lurkers do you think have done the above SOLELY because of anticipated Y2K problems>

-- Old Git (, November 10, 1999.

Deano, you say you "find it ludicrous" to:

1) quit you job and move to the stix 2) drain your savings and retirement to buy beans'n'rice and guns'n'ammo."

Approximately what percentage of this forum's posters and lurkers do you think have done the above SOLELY because of anticipated Y2K problems>

-- Old Git (, November 10, 1999.


Thank you. I'll be sure to put it in my piggy bank for a rainy day.

Old Git

I'm not sure of the percentage of posters that have done that but I know (and you do too) that SOME on here have. Or at least said they have.

There's that dude Shakey and eyes_open and a few others that (I think) have claimed to do so. And there's always the famous pig farmer that advocates it to no end.

I'v never been one to panic like that or understood how someone CAN panic like that.


-- Deano (, November 10, 1999.

First. I, yes, I was wrong. See, I can say it. An absolutely delightful surprise. No attacks on spelling, grammar, or personal insults. (Mom was a very nice lady but lord she WAS ugly. Thank you anyway) So for all my sarcasm made in anticipation of such responses. My apologies.


You seem to have missed the idea. Flint has prepped for a 7-8. Another responded commenting on the preps made during his doomer days and another talks about if it's a total TEOTWAWKI scenerio then what matters. A good point but these answers seem a bit evasive. How about it's a five? Telecommunications are fine. Banking is great but oil is gone to hell and it takes 4 months to get food to such and such a portion of the country. The world will be a wonderful place in just a few months. It is generally conceded it is only a BITR but it is a BIG BITR. Still, in one portion of the U.S. people are starving to death. They have no preps and will not be able to sustain themselves through the months until the problem is resolved.

I would like to hear, not from anyone who has prepped to any degree but to those who discourage anything beyond 3 days worth of preps. I'm curious if they would feel any sense of responsiblility.

I have seen many comments which suggest that doomers should feel guilty if some poor senior citizen has blown their life savings for beans and rice to sustain them through the upcoming non-event. The implication appears to be that doomer propaganda has to take a bit of responsiblity for how it may have swayed people towards preparations.

Does it work the other way? If unprepared people suffer or die should those who mocked the people prepping take a share of the responsibility for any deaths to the degree that their polly postings discouraged people from preparing? If they're wrong, would they feel any guilt? Would they accept any responsibility? How would they handle the knowledge that they might even be personally responsible for some of the suffering. That a particular death was due to someone who chose not to prep as a direct result of that particular pollys comments?

C'mon guys. Just a hypothetical game. You've talked them out of prepping. You presented such perfect arguments. They agreed. They are dead. How would you handle it? How would you rationalize it so that your part in it didn't count? Just curious

Mr. Flint, while I appreciate your input, as you can see, you do not by definition fall into this group.

-- thomas thatcher (, November 10, 1999.

I think the *WE* Butt Nuggett was referring to was whose interpretion of Y2K was being used. I think that was a very logical question.

Some of the people on this forum say that anyone who researches the Y2K issue should reach the same conclusion as you. I say that is a load of bull. Two reasonable people can do all the same research they want, but they will still come up with two different conclusions, simply because of what they want to believe. Does this invalidate the other's research? I can't answer that with facts, but IMHO no. The solution is to look at BOTH side's arguments - fully - to attempt to come to a logical conclusion, without all of the nonsense of NWO, chenmtrails and grocery discount cards that track your purchases.

I don't think Y2K should be judged on who is right or wrong - it should be judged on what you DO.

Can anyone point me to the post that showed the pollies saying not to prepare? Since I have started lurking here, I have seen both sides hashing it out, and I have seen the pollies saying that there are extremes, but not advising against it.

-- Lurking on the sidelines (Alw@ys, November 10, 1999.

Lurking, I agree with you that you need to sincerely analyze both arguments, but you also need to "AGREE TO DISAGREE". I have not been involved with this forum for very long but I would say from my experience todate that the trolls/pollies are unwilling to live and let live or "agree to disagree". I also believe that when someone makes fun of you for the precautions you are taking (however extreme), they are basically advising you that in their Not so HO, your an idiot. Not o.k. Who are you lurker, what are your predictions, what have you prepared for?

-- notlurking (, November 10, 1999.

Ynott --

I doubt you will get an answer that has anything to do with anything from the folks you asked the question of. They have staked out the position that *nothing* is going to/can happen. Once you have fortified that hilltop, nothing is going to budge you short of judgement day (in this case, likely to be about 51 days from now.)

Most of the other people, Flint being an outstanding example, have taken the position that 'I don't know', and not only that, but 'from what I read about this, it becomes excruciatingly obvious that there isn't *anybody* that *knows*'. Then you get into abstractions like Deano who says '10 isn't anything I want to be a part of anyway'. As if there are more than a handful of complete fruit loops who would actually *desire* this outcome.

Most of the folks here, as they have expressed time and time again, take the position that 'Since I don't know, I'll take my best guess at what looks likely, given the data I can obtain, from whatever source and weighted appropriately, make the preparations I can afford and that seem sensible to me, and hope to GOD that I am wrong, Koskinen, hoffmeister, et al, are right, and that I have to eat my insurance.'

This is, IMHO, a reasonable position to take, in the face of overwhelming uncertainty. It is taken by people who see themselves as in control of their own lives, irrespective of what government, church, community, etc., do or do not do. The other side of the coin is the charming group who have convinced themselves that they are right, that they have the patent on right, that they are in possession of information that others do not have (and why won't they share this 'inside information'), and that this whole issue is about being *right*.

-- just another (, November 10, 1999.

What if the "doomers" are right? Where will those of us who feel that it is increasingly obvious that there will not be serious degredation to life, society and the universe in general be if, in fact such events do occur?

In the same place we would have all been in if the guy from NASA who hid in the cave fearing a collision with a comet had been right. Screwed. But despite the thread on "its not about probablilites, it's about consequences" it is, in fact about probabilities. If a person considers the probabilities of needing a three-month supply of food in the basement to be very, very small then it isn't worth putting in such a supply. If that person is wrong, well, that's life.

-- Paul Neuhardt (, November 11, 1999.

Not lurking (Karla),

I do not make any predictions regarding Y2K, nor have I prepped specifically for Y2K. I always have tried to keep a month's worth of supplies on hand because I thought that made sense.

I guess you would call me a polly as I feel that Y2K is not going to be that memorable of a deal. Sure there may be some problems and hiccups down the road, but I tend to have a positive attitude about humankind overall (there a quite a few bad pennies I know). Because of my belief, I try not to interfere on this board, but I have made a post or two in response to something when I had a spare two cents.

I agree with you that things would be much easier if everyone agreed to disagree, but, as in life, there are too many extremists on both sides for that to happen. (Besides, I do find some of the ranting highly entertaining - you just have to laugh sometimes.)

-- Lurking on the sidelines (Alw@ys, November 11, 1999.

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