Not looking pretty on Wall Street this AM : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

S&P futures down about 15 points.

-- Ron Schwarz (, November 08, 1999


Microsoft down almost 10%!


-- Crash (bye@bye.dow), November 08, 1999.

"analysts expect another 5 to 10 percent drop when trading resumes on Monday."

http://cnnfn .com/1999/11/07/technology/msft_stock/

-- Sellnow (, November 08, 1999.

Don't worry it won't crash until a prearranged event takes place or date rolls by - done deal.

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

Andy, I don't know. I think there will eventually be an event that the "big guys" can't control and manage, no matter how they try. This may be the event. One of the worlds largest companies,now part of the DOW, in a tailspin.

-- nothing (, November 08, 1999.

It is looking a little nasty out there. About godamn time.

-- Gordon (, November 08, 1999.


By Joseph Gallivan

HANDS up if you haven't fantasized about whipping up a business plan, registering a domain name, chucking the day job, hooking up with some wet-behind-the-ears venture capitalists, hiring some students to work 20- hour days, rolling out a dumb dot-com product, hitting the financial news programs, throwing a big launch party, smoking the competition, hustling up some more VC money, putting on a suit again, tipping waitresses with stock, doing a seven-city roadshow, pricing above expectations, puffing on a big stogie, saying, "It's worth whatever people will pay" on TV, filing to sell a big chunk of stock, stepping aside for a proper CEO and retiring to a life of snowboarding and golf?

Before you do any more fantasizing, read a new book called "The Internet Bubble" by Anthony and Michael Perkins ( Harper Business, $27 ) . A more frightening, apocalyptic vision of your dot-com dream swirling down the toilet there could not be.

The Brothers Perkins - who work at the technology magazine Red Herring, which follows the Silicon Valley venture capital scene - have made it their mission to expose the precarious nature of the Internet stock boom. They look at the 133 Internet companies that have gone public as of June 1999 and put a number on just how overvalued they are.

On average, these 133 companies' revenues will have to grow by 80 percent annually over the next five years. That's more than successful, profit-making companies like Microsoft ( 53 percent ) and Dell ( 66 percent ) did in their first five years of being public. Even if they all grow at 65 percent annually, they would still be overvalued by a whopping $130 billion.

But the authors' favorite subject is the venture capitalists who have rushed on to the scene since 1992. A picture is painted of spoiled, greedy boys funding pathetic me-too companies that will never make a profit, because they know they will get out before the real danger hits.

Remember, this is from the epicenter of the economic quake zone, Silicon Valley.

If the bubble bursts, the founders, VCs and investment bankers will all have made their fortune, but the retail investor will lose out.

Anthony Perkins, in New York this week promoting the book, told me he expects "a lot of personal destruction" when the bubble bursts. By way of example, he cited the Atlanta day trader who shot up his office this summer.

The authors also remind us that IPOs now happen before a business has been built and that all the cheap shares have gone to friends and family before the public gets their hands on them, at which point the price usually drops back.

"The venture capital risk is being passed on to the public," complains Perkins.

This Menlo Park native looks at his peers and he can't believe their greed. Perkins says the book was written to educate the retail investor, because he is disappointed in the VCs and the analyst community ( "a bunch of frauds, they won't dare say 'sell'" ) for keeping the public in the dark about the real risks in buying Internet stocks.

Neither writer predicts when the bubble will burst. They do, however, capture the feeling of buyer's remorse that will one day prevail.

The best quote in the book comes from CS First Boston Analyst Lise Buyer: "People are buying Internet stocks as if they're Beanie babies. A Beanie Baby is worth 23 cents, but temporarily I've got to pay $20 for it. And I'll pay even $150 for it, until I'm no longer interested, and then I'll say, 'Damn! It's just a piece of felt and some beans. What was I thinking?'"

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

Doomer Predictions - You gatta love 'em!

-- It ain't Over Till (the_Fat@Lady.Sings), November 08, 1999.

Hey nothing, I hope so. This country needs a good shake-up, better now than later IMHO... strange how Msucks goes to the DOW[n] just prior to this fix, uh, "decision"...

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

Geez, last week you guys were saying MSFT was put into the DOW to prop it up and now they put it in the DOW so they could knock it down?.

Make up your mind. Just another conspiracy theory which loses its legs and then the "theorists" change the reasoning of the conspiracy.

-- hamster (, November 08, 1999.

ok hamster explain the switch ***JUST*** before this momentous fi , uh, "decision"...

we're waiting...

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

Andy, how about you explain why the theory has changed. If this decision DIDN'T come out you guys would still be spouting off about the powers that be put MSFT in to pop up the DOW. An unfavorable decision comes out and you guys do a total reversal. So anything that happens to comes close to another event is a conspiracy ?.

This is the most pitifull thing I ever heard. I imagine that if people disregard the MSFT news and keep buying that stock you guys will say "Someone with alot of money to spend is scooping up all the MSFT just to keep it propped up".

-- hamster (, November 08, 1999.

You don't think those "in the know" have puts on MSFT????

Ho ho ho.... Hamster, get real...

Also, it's another way for Greenscum to let the DOW[n] down "gently", unless of course it backfires...

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

Andy it is so sad to read what you type, you have no clue as to what you are talking about but create conspiracies out of the ether just to fit into whats happening.

Whats gold going to do today?. Give me your "POG Conspiracy D'jour".

-- hamster (, November 08, 1999.

Andy - "Don't worry it won't crash until a prearranged event takes place or date rolls by - done deal."

A prearranged event? Perhaps adding Microsoft to the DOW (after a year that has seen the stock double) shortly before this ruling comes out? Could THAT be the prearranged event?

-- Linda (, November 08, 1999.

I see hamster that you haven't answered my question because you are incapable of using your rodent brain - have they been force feeding you fags again???

"Date: Mon Nov 08 1999 07:53 sharefin (Tolerant one) ID#284255:

Copyright ) 1999 sharefin/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

Over here in OZ they're calling for MSFT to tumble 10% tonight. Now with it just having been added to the dow and with it's massive weighting that could produce one hell of a fall.

I wonder when they compare MSFT to RCA in the late 20's whether it could be the one to start it all off??? "

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

Date: Mon Nov 08 1999 08:12

tolerant (fin that shares,namaste'gulp...puff and a crunch to ya...I

think the whole affair is sick...) ID#332239: and twisted...moving MSFT into the DOW and then the judgement...America has become the womb of bullshit...everywhere I look I see lies...criminals yapping about the law and what is is a script for a twisted movie...but it is being played out in real life...

Whenever the market dump comes it will be devastating and all will be could very well be that MSFT will start the mighty pitch lower...



get off your wheel, you must be dizzy with puffing all dem fags...

are you SERIOUSLY telling me that the move of MSFT followed in quick order by this


are not related???????


Good grief...

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.

First Bill Gates sells shares in msft, then AG keeps talking the exhuberance thing, then msft is added to the Dow, then right at a .618 retracement of the Dow the Govt. announces msft slammed in court case...

-- Andy (, November 08, 1999.


Yup, you are in OZ all right, and you're the wizzard.

Microsoft will take a downward spiral for a few days. Then the bottom feeders will start circling.

Do you know what happens to a worm when you chop it up into 5 pieces? It becomes 5 worms. I wouldn't screw with Bill Gates. He could take this country down the toilet with him.

-- (, November 08, 1999.

Andy, doing the "Cut & Paste" routine of some quote from a joker at the "Kitco Sanatorium" isnt going to raise your credibility.

I see that you just block out what you dont want to remember, in this case the blather about why MSFT was put into the DOW in the first place, and now stick to the newest rant because its sooo scary.

C'mon, give me an original thought. Something of your own. Like whats going to be the trend on the POG. Oh, never mind, its still going down.

-- hamster (, November 08, 1999.

For the spot price of gold: graph.html

For the spot price of silver: ver.graph.html

For the spot price of platinum: latinum.graph.html

For U.S. Markets and stock quotes:

For Major World Indices:

Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (, November 08, 1999.

Oops, the market rebounded. Up by midday. How many times has the extreme premarket trading not been a precursor for the general trading for that day. There are some who think there is a potential upside for a Microsoft break-up (See the results from all the components of ATT's breakup).

Remember the entire federal government's could be used to support the creation of the King's legacy.

Once again the market could reach the previous highs in the Dow and S&P before the big slide...

There is still time.

-- squid (, November 08, 1999.

I believe the market is way over priced and that the fundamental laws of surrounding "regression to the mean" will kick in -- at some point the market will become fairly priced. However, Y2K has, in every respect, defied prediction using any model based upon rational thought. That's why "it ain't over till the fat lady sings". If the market hasn't dropped way below 10K by June '00, then the doomers are wrong.

PS-The doomers who come to this forum may be shown to be misguided. I admit it that I can't get away from this board much the way the Superbowl doesn't even give me a pit-stop during commercials. (They are too interesting). However, the pollys who hang out on this forum are losers at a fundamental level. Did you guys get tired of debunking UFO boards?

-- Dave (, November 08, 1999.

Not looking pretty on Wall Street this AM

Add this thread to the list of, oh....about 50 others they start with titles like "dow tanking", "get out of the market NOW", "bye-bye wall street" etc etc etc.

Grasping at straws is a doomer™ staple; they will continue to pray for the destruction of a major world economic engine....all to satisfy the desire to "climb to the top of the pile"

OT: Dow I like the quote from this thread... Hey, the doomidiots are kinda like those dancing flowers at the toy store, you know the ones that move whenever they hear music or loud noise? The y2kooks are programmed to respond only to the negative news tho'...they say squat when the news is good.

Notice the bottom of that thread. For several straight days, a daily posting of the closing market indices. For several weeks they have been good....any comments from the Doomers™?

Today we have them starting a new thread....when even the appearance of trouble shows itself.....the Gloomy-Doomies© just can't help themselves. I wonder if it is because Every single y2k prediction to date has been so BADLY wrong!

Hoping for a little crash to ease the pain of knowing you got sucked into the y2kult vortex and can't get out?

BTW, it looks like the NASDAQ will close up again today (unless something happens in the next half hour)....that will be the seventh straight day of a new record high....

-- Why Continue (to@embarass.yourselves?), November 08, 1999.

Please dont think of me as a "polly". I am very much aware and afraid of what Y2k can do to us. What bites my ass is the geniuses here who act like they know it all and rant about what will happen next.

Take Microsoft, read some of the earlier posts. Its 3:45pm here and MSFT is only down 1 point. What conspiracy is Andy going to quote now that propped up MSFT. I dont hate Andy, its the noise he makes and gets so very wrong most of the time.

-- hamster (, November 08, 1999.

Hey there, "Why Continue" -- where's your measure of vituperative for the yammermouths on CNBC, who put *this* crowd to shame? Don't tell me you don't see the clenching fear in their faces, hear the quivering in their voices -- each time things look "interesting" in the pre-open and early morning hours as of late.

Don't you remember Maria Blabbaramo blubbering on and on about "the y2k" a week or so ago when the market pretended it was on a return trip to Cairo?

There's fear in the air. It's palpable. The Deeply Vested Ones like to whistle past the graveyard (or maybe not -- perhaps they *hate* whistling past the graveyard -- but whistle they do, nonetheless), but every so often they drop their guard, and let slip what's *really* on their minds.

A pity they can't keep a stiff... upper lip, like the PowahPolliez here, eh?

But, I digress.

You like to jump posters here who point out break o' day market shakiness, yet, you remain silent on the 'Fisshul Media Dahlings when *they* do the exact same thing, in spades.

Why is that, chumkin? Any *reason*, or is it just What You Do?

-- Ron Schwarz (, November 08, 1999.

Howdy, Crampster!

Your sublime talents are wasted here. Why not ask your questions to the jaw-waggers in the *media* who are the ones who *really* fan the flames of panic on mornings like today? The clenchjaw routine on CNBC this morning put anything posted *here* to shame! Where is your *outrage*, rodent? Where is your call for an End to the Madness in Media? Where are your *meds*?

-- Ron Schwarz (, November 08, 1999.

CNBC has to make interest of the boring drivel they report on. Can you imagine doing that crap all day, five days a week. Its like the weather channel when they go chase a storm. They plant bozos all along the storm track and show how 'terrible' it is to be standing in 45mph wind and rain.

If I could I would crawl all the way to CNBC studios and wag my tiny, yet dexterous finger at them and yell "STOP IT !".

-- hamster (, November 08, 1999.

What goes up must come down. Oddly enough the current dow defies gravity. There are a lot of wierd things going on these days. This is just one of many. My gut feeling is that it is being manipulated. I doubt there are many who would disagree with that statement. The question is by whom, how many and to what ends. Is there one interest in control or is it more of a battleground for competing interests? Whats really going on? I dunno and neither do you.

The only safe bet is that anyone who really does know is not going to be logging on to TB2000 to give us the lowdown.

-- Dolma Lhamo (I', November 08, 1999.


I think we have to conclude that the evil conspiracy to let the market deflate at a controlled rate (usually known as "buyers") today was almost exactly as nefarious as the evil conspiracy to keep the market propped up (also known as "sellers"). As a result, there wasn't a whole lot of net movement. Some days are like that.

-- Flint (, November 08, 1999.

Flint you could make your point more succintly as follows:

"When the fix is equal, justice prevails."

-- mr x (, November 08, 1999.

Overall - about a 0% growth since March and April of this year - some bull market.....

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (, November 08, 1999.

How goes the US stock market, goes the world. The premier currency in the world is tied to the ONLY stock market that hasn't taken it in the shorts YET. TPTB are trying everything they can to keep the fiat money house of cards from falling apart. If the money system collapses, then so do their assets.

If you cannot see this coming then the "stupid ray emitter" (TV) has definitely roasted your synapses. We the people are the mushrooms... i.e., kept in the dark and fed bovine excrement.

The money system, and the world is about to see a collapse. No ifs ands or buts... it is only a matter of when. the funky graphs and charts of market performance tell you it is being manipulated and propped up anyway that can be in order for it to "appear" to be A-OK. The fundamentals are hosed...

It is only a matter of time. The spinning plate will fall off the stick... and it will happen in an instant. The confidence in the money will evaporate like sweat on a dry, hot day.

I can hear the polly keyboards spinning up from here: "How the hell do you know that?"... "You are just pulling that out of your a$$"... "where is your proof?"... etc...

Research... personal study... reading between the lines...

It is only a matter of time... will Y2K be the scapegoat???

growlin' at the parrot...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert, November 08, 1999.

hampster... You ain't bull_hampster are you? -- Erskine, Osiris.

-- (...@.......), November 08, 1999.

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