Gartner Group forcastsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Putting all the information and analysis together,
GartnerGroup predicts the following: During December
1999 and January 2000, at least 99 percent of the
global population will receive at least 99 percent
of their normal service levels for electrical
infrastructure services (0.8 probability).
' 1% = 60 million people!
Gartner Group predicts e-business failure
-- spider (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 07, 1999
Duuuh, Gartner, sexy curve but the ordinate scale is not quantified
-- (email@example.com), November 07, 1999.
Gartner Group slogan for 2001:
"When Gartner Group talks...NOBODY LISTENS ANYMORE"
Gartner Group has shot themselves in the foot with this one. Talk about a CONTRIDICTION!
1) Y2K won't even be a "bump-in-the-road"
2) e-business to become extinct by 2006-2008
These two predictions are 100% at odds with each other. If Y2K turns out to be...nothing, then e-business is going to take off like the industerial revolution.
However, if Y2K is painful (but not catastrophic) e-business along with all other things "techie" are going to fall faster than flight 990 and land just as hard.
Seems Gartner is taking a "middle of the road" stance on this one. Isn't this the formula for this type of firm's extinction?
Gartner Group is playing with people's lives here by talking out of both sides of their mouth. Many people will base their level of preparedness on what Gartner is saying. IMHO, Gartner is now part of the propaganda problem as opposed to being a good source of information.
-- GartnerBankrupt (GartnerBankrupt@2006.2008), November 07, 1999.
Actually GartnerBankrupt, read their report over. It doesn't say anything about the end of e-business completely as you stated. Rather its what they believe to be the point that many of the rushed e- businesses will falter and go out of business.
And it definately is a sound concept. If you read Business 2.0(great mag by the way) they had a informal survey of what companies on the web you would trust. And most were established traditional corporations.
Take it for what it was worth but e-business will probably change after companies do not meet expectations in the next 2 or 3 years. That is as well would be the average life of failed small businesses. If someone started one in 1998 or 1999, major closures in 2001-2003 would be just about right.
-- The Y2K Village Idiot (BAMECW@aol.com), November 07, 1999.