I know the forum rule - must have the word "electricity" in the post, so there it is. The question has been asked many times, "Does the US Government think something will happen, might happen, or nothing will happen?" One way to get a feel for this is to see what they DO. The only way I can tell you what they are actually DOING is to veer from the electricity issue and tell you what they are DOING to me. I trust Rick will leave this up.

I get a Social Security check by mail. You can also get it by direct deposit. About 33 million people get theirs by mail, about 43 million get theirs by direct deposit. "By mail" people get their check on the 3rd of the month and "direct deposit" people get theirs on the 3rd of the month.

The Social Security Adm. is going to send the "by mail" people their Dec. check early so they get it on Dec. 30 instead of Jan. 3. Why are they doing this? THEY DON'T KNOW FOR SURE THAT POST OFFICES WILL BE FUNCTIONAL AFTER JAN. 1. They did a "practice" run last month. My check was dated for Oct. 1 instead of the 3rd and I got it at the end of Sept. How do I know that was a "practice" run? Because my Nov. check is dated as usual on the 3rd of the month.

What about "direct deposit" people? There should be no problem with these people since the banks are all compliant. Right? Not exactly. The Soc. Security Adm. is going to send the direct deposits on Jan. 3; however, if something fouls up, they will then try to send it to another bank near you and keep trying until they find a bank that will work. Don't know how they will notify a person to tell him/her which bank has his/her money. Am I making this up? No, it's for real. What does this tell us? THEY ARE NOT ABSOLUTELY SURE ALL BANKS WILL WORK.

So, what is the point of this post on this forum, and besides you don't get a social security check so why should you care? Here is the reason: The govn. has told us not to worry, maybe a little food set aside, but their actions tell us they are getting ready for possible major interruptions in govn. services and country infrastructure including some banks. I believe you must consider a possible break-down of electricity as well. There are no positives one way or the other, only possibilities.

The government has geared up for a possible break-down in mail and banks and, in Oct., tested sending and dating checks early. Have you made any preparations? The government has.

-- Anonymous, November 07, 1999

Answers

Marcella,

I am currently on vacation soon planning to start some general practictioner medical work. I have interrupted my medical training for this. There can be an hour long arguement over the relative merits of heparin versus venodynes for DVT prophylaxsis, yet no one breathes a word about Y2K. We argue decimal points and are about to get hit in the head with a two by four called the Y2K plague. This in what is universally acknowledged as the worst prepared of industries, healthcare. I keep waiting for the "heave ho we are all in this together boys". I'm still waiting. There is still time to "make hay while the sun shines" but we are counseled against preparation. Astounding.

-- Anonymous, November 07, 1999

Well Marcella, I am sure that a regular like yourself will be allowed a certain margin for OT. Heck, we are winding down very fast now anyway.

I have cheered and supported FP&L on this board. I believe they are a very good power company. I want to believe that they are ready. I want them to be ready. But I was suprised to get a rather condescending notice with my last bill.

"Tests Help Confirm Our Readiness for Year 2000"

Their claim of confirming readiness is based on these 2 "TESTS":

1. "We participated in the two day NERC drill to test contingency plans, resources, and backup communication.... Our contigency plans were successful." (the one that had Rick pretty bored)

2. "Our equipment performed without interuption during the roll-over to the date Sept. 9, 1999." (I am sure Lane would really be impressed with that one.)

HEEEEEEELLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO !!!! Sheesh! Is there any wonder there is so much confusion.

You know, the Orlando Sentinel ran an article in April 1998 where FP&L said they began working on the 2K issue in 1996 and they were halfway (thats 1/2) done in fixing the problem. BUT the kicker to the article is that FP&L said they would be complete by December 1998. Their math didn't add up then. Doesn't now either. But I wanted to believe them.

I was dumbfounded when I read their insert about confirming readiness. If this is all they have to brag about, then maybe there will be more problems than I want to think about.

I am glad that I trusted my instinct not to trust FP&L even though I wanted to trust them. I am glad I have done my preparations.

Factfinder..... keep sending facts. You are kind of like a Y2K Pepto Bismol. Right now, I am feeling sick.

-- Anonymous, November 08, 1999

This is not an official government line, this is just the SSA making contingency plans. If individuals make contingency plans, they are considered to be wise, but if an institution does, why are they considered to know some sinister secret we don't? The SSA is in no better position to judge whether or not the PO and banks are ok than we are, they are just making plans. I say hooray for them, this is good news, not a precursor to doom.

-- Anonymous, November 08, 1999

Walt, you said, "If an individual decides to make contingency plans they are considered to be wise..." Where, pray, did you get this? People who prepare are considered to be "nut" cases, ultra-right, religious extremists, gun carrying isolationist fruit cakes.

The government wants you to prepare for three days and leave your money in the bank (they need it more than you might.)

One of the points of my post, and forgive me if I didn't get this across, is that the government is going to extremes to prepare and I applaud that with whistles and shouts. They should be telling us to do the same and should have been saying it since at least mid-last year when people could prepare without causing a major drain on supplies. They didn't do that and are not doing that; instead they tell us if we take money out we will hurt the banks and if we store food we are hoarders and will take food someone else needs. You see, this does not compute. What is good for them should be good for us; now that computes.

Let me get back to electricity and my "connect the dot theory." I don't know jack about electricity. I must rely on people like Rick who have the experience and knowledge. He knows what is at stake and I accept what he says without question (well, mostly without question.) But this does not mean that I have no brain cells. You see, Walt, I am sitting down here in Texas with all these refineries, hundreds and hundreds. If Texas can't get enough oil and Texas refineries don't work, Rick is frozen in New Jersey no matter how much he knows about electricity. Now, I have never met Rick but I bet he looks better in the unfrozen state. To be sure he remains unfrozen I think he needs an alternative heat source because he can't count 100% that Texas can keep him warm.

The bottom line is uncertainty and don't depend on the government or anyone else to save you; do it yourself then you don't have to be concerned except for those that can't help themselves.

-- Anonymous, November 09, 1999

Walt,

Honestly, I have a problem with virtually everything you just said. Let's look at it and maybe you can explain your thoughts further.

I haven't seen individuals who are preparing being looked at as wise. Just the opposite in fact. Nut cases. Alarmists. Paranoid. But not wise.

Vanguard Investments, the second largest mutual fund in the world, and a *very* conservative one at that, has just sent me an update about their Y2k preparations. They are extensive, and include more than 2 dozen generators (yep) in case of power failures due to Y2k. Now, they didn't have this depth of backup power before, in spite of possible winter or summer storms. Why now? They are justly proud of being the lowest expensed major mutual fund in virtually every area, due to stict cost controls, but here they are spending a lot of extra money on backup generators, and extra fuel, and extra water too. Surely even an average level of common sense tells you they know something you don't.

Lastly, the SSA is absolutely, positively, guaranteed to know a lot more about the USPS than we do. Here you are talking about *the* key entitlement program that our bureaucrats provide. Anything that could disrupt that delivery will be looked into, and since their fall back contingency plan is for mailing the checks manually, bet your bottom dollar they will have dug deep into the probable reality of that coming off smoothly.

Of course you may have very good reasons for saying all you did, the way you did, but it's not obvious. Care to be more specific?

Gordon

-- Anonymous, November 09, 1999

Yeah - what Marcella said....and no one can count on Oklahoma to keep them warm either(or any other oil/energy producing state). And it's not just warmth - its food also. Energy is the basis of our modern agriculture system. Without adequate supplies, we can't even feed ourselves and keep warm, and forget the exports.

-- Anonymous, November 09, 1999

Norm, I think I too would have been disappointed to receving such a shallow feel good Y2K insert from my utility (or bank, or whatever). I have gotten a few, but they weren't that bad.

I prefer detailed information and status...

Regards,

-- Anonymous, November 10, 1999