Notwithstanding d's beliefs to the contrary, I'm betting it will. Good riddance too, at least to the light rail and commuter rail portions. The express bus services are probably economically viable, but they will be sacrificed to try to keep the big public works construction pay-offs to the unions and contractors who provide money to politicians. From the Seattle Times:

osted at 07:00 a.m. PST; Thursday, November 4, 1999

Sound Transit will still collect car tax

by Alex Fryer Seattle Times staff reporter Even after the resounding passage of Initiative 695, Sound Transit will still levy a tax on the value of motor vehicles. The big question for the agency is: Who will collect it?

There are other unknowns as well.

Sound Transit planners say the proposed 23 miles of light-rail service will not be derailed by I-695, but commuter-rail service from Everett to Tacoma could be delayed and bus schedules scrambled.

And voters may be asked to approve all future passenger-fare increases.

Three years ago, voters in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties approved a $3.9 billion regional bus, light-rail and train system.

An increase of 0.3 percent in the motor-vehicle excise tax as well as an increase in the sales tax were created to pay for the 10-year plan. Sound Transit will continue to collect $48 on a vehicle assessed at $16,000 in the tri-county region.

But who will do the assessing?

By 2006 - the last year of the 10-year plan - Sound Transit's motor-vehicle excise tax is expected to have brought in a total of $539 million.

Sound Transit has an annual contract of $350,000 with the state Department of Licensing to collect the vehicle tax.

Now that the state is ostensibly out of the vehicle-assessment business, Sound Transit may have to pay the Department of Licensing to value cars as well as collect the tax.

So far, the state has not decided whether or how much to charge Sound Transit for the service, said Paul Miller, chairman of Sound Transit.

"Any additional cost that is added is going to be dollars taken away from the building of the system," Miller said. "That concerns me."

Northgate station in peril

Light rail won't be affected, but building a Northgate station by 2006 looks unlikely.

Last month, the 18-member Sound Transit board called for state money to extend the light-rail line to a transit hub at Northgate.

With state lawmakers now facing dramatic cuts in transportation funds, a $400 million Northgate extension is pretty much out of the question, Miller said.

"Accomplishing state funding for an extension of light rail is difficult in the best of times. With the passage of I-695, it becomes almost Herculean."

Commuter rail service from Seattle to Tacoma was to debut later next year, with Everett added in 2001. The state Department of Transportation had committed $60 million for track improvements. Now, the service may be delayed.

Bus service affected, too

Other impacts to Sound Transit include state funding for HOV ramps and lanes.

Although Sound Transit's regional bus service would not be affected, the agency's system is designed to link with local buses.

Cutbacks in local bus routes could wreak havoc with Sound Transit's regional schedule, Miller said.

There may be political costs from I-695 as well.

Most folks are not aware Sound Transit will still levy a vehicle excise tax, meaning the agency could be criticized for going against the will of the people.

"The backlash against Sound Transit could be tremendous," he said. "But Sound Transit was a voter mandate, too." [YEAH, SO WAS INITIATIVE 47. I-695 TRUMPED THAT,TOO. ]

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), November 04, 1999

Answers

With any luck I-695 will kill Sound Transit's plans for a light rail system. Light rail systems are slow and operate mostly at ground level and on surface streets, interacting with automobile and pedestrian traffic. A heavy rail system, similar to Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) in the San Francisco bay area, has trains running at over 70 mph along its own dedicated tracks, can carry more passengers and has no interaction with pedestrians or automobiles. Heavy rail is more costly to develop and construct but produces a faster and more efficient means to transport more people than light rail systems.

But Washington state's political muscle has crammed the light rail plan down taxpayers throats by allowing current transportation systems to deteriorate. Anyone who believes the light rail system will cost a mere $3.9 billion dollars is incredibly naive. Considering past and current political boondoggles, that figure will probably be $8-10 billion by the time the system is somewhat complete. Riders will soon realize they are stuck with a slow, low capacity transit system to be eventually replaced by traditional heavy rail.

Politicians have sold this cheaper light rail system to appear as if they are working to solve the transporation mess. Keep in mind these same people were looking at possiblities to expand the Seattle monorail. What's next, horse drawn trolley cars?

-- James Andrews (jimfive@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

In reference to Sound Transit's levy on my automobile, I would like to know what standard they are going to use for my wreck.. Their twisted and fraudulent idea of value, or something closer to reality. I hope the whole thing goes to Hell in a handbasket. If I used the State's method of valuing an auto on something I was trying to sell, I'd be in jail for fraud. If they try to tax your car make them prove its value.. If we all do it'll cost them more than they take in.

-- Michael Jackson (mejackson@home.com), November 05, 1999.

The Sound Transit bubble is starting to implode. I-695 makes a poor business deal even poorer. Why don't we use the EXCESS buses that we now will have (after cutbacks of up to a THIRD of bus hours) to do the job of SoundTransit in a more cost effective manner. Why give another half Billion in subsidies to Burlington Northern and put a slow and expensive light rail system in place between Sea Tac and the UDUB?

From the MetroKC transit website: http://www.metrokc.gov/kcdot/out/I- 695Q&A.htm

Metro has agreements with Sound Transit to operate its ST Express bus service and provide feeder service. What will be the impact of budget reductions on those agreements?

Sound Transit establishes ST Express routes and service levels and funds those costs. Any decision to change any ST Express routes would be Sound Transits responsibility. King County Metros ability to provide feeder service to Sound Transit bus and rail routes will be reduced because Metros MVET revenue will decrease. +

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), November 08, 1999.

It's getting worse. Even the UW is starting to have second thoughts about LINK. Why don't we kill this turkey NOW, and avoid the rush? From the Seattle Times (http://www.seattletimes.com/news/local/html98/rail_19991112.html):

University District could be rail's last stop

by Alex Fryer Seattle Times staff reporter Fremont may be the center of the universe, but the University District is the end of the line.

With the passage last week of Initiative 695, a much-desired extension of the proposed light-rail route from the U District to Northgate looks unlikely.

Instead, rail planners say the corner of Northeast 45th Street and 15th Avenue Northeast will become the northern terminus of the 23- mile route, at least until further money becomes available.

The Sound Transit board is expected to approve a final rail route and station locations at its meeting Thursday.

While U District residents have long known that light rail is coming to their neighborhood, the realization that the route is likely to end there has produced some surprise and consternation.

And, of course, some differences of opinion.

There are two major issues for the U District: parking and traffic.

Sound Transit studied the impact of a terminal in the U District and characterizes it this way: no big deal.

But the University of Washington, the big kahuna in the neighborhood, believes otherwise.

"Sound Transit has assumed away many of the problems that are potential problems," said Peter Dewey, transportation systems manager at the UW.

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), November 12, 1999.

And Sound Transit's problems continue (but they continue to spend the tax money). This program is approaching the status of what program manager's call non-executable. At that point, you are paying more and more for less and less. The usual mechanisms to keep it going are to stretch out the schedule (which dramatically INCREASES long term costs, while DECREASING BENEFIT, and when you've spent enough money, justify future spending by saying that if we don't spend more, we'll lose all the money we've already spent (which, of course, you do in either event). We ought to pull the plug on this turkey, before another dollar is invested.

Increasing volumes of freight trains already cause paralyzing traffic jams in the Kent Valley and nearby cities like Auburn, as cars wait for 100-car trains to rumble by. This congestion will be exacerbated next year, when Sound Transit plans to send 18 commuter trains a day over the same tracks, exactly at the peak commuter hours when motorists need to cross those tracks.

But those commuter trains may not roll as planned, because I-695 also threatens the state Department of Transportation's $60 million contribution toward a planned $322 million track and signal improvement program between Seattle and Tacoma.

Sound Transit spokesman Clarence Moriwaki said the system will "absolutely not" be able to operate the full set of commuter rail trains unless a way is found to fund the project.

http://www.amcity.com/seattle/stories/1999/11/15/story5.html

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), November 15, 1999.

And the west side of the state continues to try to get the rest of us to fund their railroad.

Wednesday, March 8, 2000, 12:17 a.m. Pacific

Democrats seek money to extend light rail

by Andrew Garber Seattle Times staff reporter Twenty-six House Democrats from the Puget Sound region are pushing for $214 million in state financing for Sound Transit over the next six years.

More than half of the money requested, $116 million, would help pay for extending the light-rail route from Seattle's University District north to Northgate. That's about a quarter of what's needed to pay for the extension, according to Sound Transit.

Legislators sent a letter this week to House Co-Speaker Frank Chopp, D-Seattle, urging support for a proposal that would tap state sales- tax revenue to provide the money.

"We want to get Sound Transit to Northgate. And it is going to take new money to do that," said Rep. Ruth Fisher, D-Tacoma, House co- chairwoman of the Transportation Committee, who signed the letter.

In 1996, voters approved $2.1 billion for a 23-mile light-rail route from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport to the U District. But Sound Transit officials also want the money for the half-billion- dollar extension to Northgate.

Under a proposal in the Legislature, Sound Transit would get to keep state sales-tax revenue generated by the agency's transportation projects.

Sound Transit expects to spend enough on light rail, bus purchases and commuter rail to generate $214 million in sales-tax revenue during the next six years. The money would be spent on a variety of projects such as park-and-ride lots, transit centers and commuter rail.

But the $116 million earmarked for light rail wouldn't come close to financing the route to Northgate. It could, however, bolster Sound Transit efforts to get federal money by showing the state supports the effort, said Sheila Dezarn, manager of government relations for Sound Transit.

"They look and say, `How much are you putting on the table?' " she said. "It strengthens our case."

The appeal to Chopp will hold some sway in a state House that is split 49-49 between Republicans and Democrats.

Still, getting more money to Sound Transit will be a big challenge in a year when lawmakers are focused on trying to restore money for road projects and other transportation services that were lost when voters approved Initiative 695. The initiative slashed vehicle-tab fees and left a $750 million hole in the state's annual budget.

Sound Transit wasn't directly hit by I-695. Legislators say they would have to take money from other transportation projects to free up money for light rail.

"We are in the middle of a transportation crisis, and the people who are proposing to build (the light-rail extension) didn't lose a nickel," said Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen, D-Camano Island, chairwoman of the Senate Transportation Committee.

"It's hard for us to say `what should we cut to give to you?' "

At this point, Haugen said, it's more important to fund other transportation needs, such as mass transit, ferries and highway construction.

-- Jorge Ortiz (jorgeo@AOL.com), March 08, 2000.

Initiative 711 proposes exempting transportation-related projects from sales taxes. Looks like Sound Transit is beating Tim Eyman to the punch, again.

-- Matthew M. Warren (mattinsky@msn.com), March 08, 2000.

Metro 'historian' leaves road behind Saturday, March 11, 2000 By GEORGE FOSTER SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER Al Ramey, who has watched people get on and off buses for nearly a half-century, fears that ridership today is suffering from attrition -- older, regular passengers are not being replaced by as many younger ones. Last Wednesday, Ramey, a trim man at 68, retired as Metro's most senior driver. He insists age was not a factor in leaving Route 194 and the transit agency, but rather tendinitis of the shoulder. Ramey blames the adulation of the automobile for transit's lack of success in wooing more passengers during these prosperous times. J J Al Ramey, who has retired as Metro's most senior driver, tinkers with mechanical musical devices, such as music boxes, in the basement shop of his Burien home. His dog, Cookie, is often nearby. Paul Joseph Brown/P-I "You have to drive today," he said yesterday. "That's the criteria by which you are judged. Look at television and the movies. They teach you that you have to have a car or you are inferior." There was a time when things were different. "When I was courting around Seattle, I always took a bus," he said. "Now, if you ask a girl to take the bus and meet me at the movie house, she'll hang up on you." Ramey did not need a car to impress Ruth Holliday. The two met when she was a regular passenger on Ramey's Suburban Transportation bus that went through Burien. "We met in 1954 and were married in 1959," he said. Ramey talked yesterday in the basement shop of his Burien home while tinkering with the innards of a 19th-century Czech music box. His fascination with mechanical musical devices -- player pianos, carousel organs -- dates back to his youth working for traveling carnivals. His switch to driving buses in 1952 came under pressure from an older sister who tried to direct young Ramey onto the straight-and-narrow and was not above modest bribery (room and board) to accomplish that. Metro ridership figures do not back up Ramey's theory on attrition. Transit agency spokesman Frank Abe said bus boardings in 1999 were up 12 percent from 1995. The four-year period also saw a dramatic increase in service. Although there is little data about passengers by age, Ramey speaks from experience. "He's seen the evolution of transit in Seattle from the time it was the old Metropolitan Transit to its incorporation into King County," said Ramey's old boss, Bruce Porad, chief of operations at Metro's South Base. "He's really a kind of historian. "He was also quite an ambassador for people visiting from other areas," said Porad, noting that Ramey's last route stops at Sea-Tac Airport."He would give them (visitors) a pretty good introduction and welcome to the Pacific Northwest." Regular passengers received the same treatment, said Ken Shattock, who commutes daily from Federal Way to downtown Seattle. "He was one of a very few Metro drivers that would not only call out every station stop but give you a litany of everything at every location," Shattock said. This practice was also applied in the downtown bus tunnel. "He wanted to make sure you knew what there was up top waiting for you," Shattock said. Ramey's own brand of marketing? Possibly. The retired driver says, "There should be greater emphasis on riding the bus." He says the passage in November of Initiative 695, which replaced the state's graduated motor-vehicle excise tax with a flat $30 fee, runs counter to his suggestion. That cost local transit agencies such as Metro a total of $223 million annually in shared state revenue for transit and still threatens service in King County.

"Transit agency spokesman Frank Abe said bus boardings in 1999 were up 12 percent from 1995"

Of course, we started counting non-fare trips in the downtown no fare zone which we didn't used to do, plus population grew JUST A LITTLE BIT between 95 and 99, and bus miles traveled grew WELL IN EXCESS of 12%, meaning that we pushed transit farther and farther out of it's economic niche.

-- Craig Carson (craigcar@crosswinds.net), March 13, 2000.