Gartner: Y2K won't affect electricity

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New story from Reuters on CNET's News.com:

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1009-200-1427315.html?tag=st.ne.1002.thed.1009-200-1427315

The lights will stay on as the year 2000 arrives, the firm that helped to alert the world to the dangers of the millennium computer bug predicted today.

In a report, U.S. technology consultancy Gartner Group said electricity supplies around the world will remain more or less stable as clocks strike midnight on December 31.

Countries where electricity supplies are usually reliable can expect business as usual. Third world countries can expect the normal level of power cuts.

Gartner has taken a high profile in urging action to combat the millennium bug, which could hit as computer clocks move to the next century. Experts worry that computer programs which record dates in two digits like 89 or 97, will trip over the two zeros in 2000 and cause chaos around the world.

Gartner famously said it would cost between $300 billion and $600 billion to solve this so-called Y2K problem worldwide.

But now it is confident that electricity, probably the most important component of the world's infrastructure, will flow without interruption.

``During December 1999 and January 2000, at least 99 percent of the global population will receive at least 99 percent of their normal service levels for electrical infrastructure services, the Gartner report said.

``All year-2000 assessments agree on one thing: everyone is dependent on infrastructure services. Both public sector and commercial organizations claim that they are ready for the century boundary, but point at infrastructure services like electricity and telephony, the report said.

``Electricity providers say their big uncertainty is telephony services, and telcos say they will be fine as long as electricity is OK, according to the report.

Gartner concluded that electricity suppliers will handle the date change with few problems. The expected dip in demand for electricity over the holiday also provides a cushion.

``At the period of critical risk--midnight on December 31, 1999--electricity planners believe that there will be historic low demand. This is because so many industrial users will have shut down plant and equipment as part of their year 2000 boundary plans, Gartner reports.

Supply disruptions will be greater in third world countries.

``Some countries claim to have better than 99.99 percent continuity of supply for more than 98 percent of consumers, whereas some developing countries have less than 50 percent availability at normal times. Year-2000 disruption should be measured against what is normal for the country."

Story Copyright ) 1999 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.

-- Anonymous, November 02, 1999

Answers

Drew,

Thanks for posting this. I saw it and considered posting it myself.

In my opinion, the only way that any individual or organization could conclude that during January, 2000, "at least 99 percent of the global population will receive at least 99 percent of their normal service levels for electrical infrastructure services" is by taking at face value and as absolute truth the positive self-reporting of all electric utilities, all electric utility organizations and countries.

Apparently, as of October 30th, the U.S. State Department still hadn't gotten the good news. According to a 10/30/1999 report from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation ( URL http://www.abc.net.au/news/y2k/y2k-30oct1999-1.htm )

"The United States announced overnight it would allow its diplomats in Russia and three former Soviet states to leave their posts later this year to avoid potential problems from the Y2K bug.

In separate statements, the State Department also advised American citizens to defer travel to Russia, Belarus, Moldova and Ukraine 'until the extent of Y2K-related disruptions...becomes clear.'

In addition, the department called on expatriate Americans living in these countries to consider leaving them and warned that plans to depart should be made well in advance. . .

'In particular, we are concerned about potential disruptions in energy supplies that may impact the health and safety of US citizens residing or traveling (in these countries), the duration of which is unknown,' the department said. . .

The department warned that disruptions in energy supplies in all these countries could affect 'basic human services' such as heat, water, and telephones and advised Americans intending to stay to register with the appropriate embassy which will remain open."

Given its recommendations to American expatriates and non-essential embassy personnel to leave these countries, my best guess is that the Y2K experts at the State Department have concluded that the likelihood that the electrical infrastructure in this region will continue to function normally is substantially less than 99 percent.

-- Anonymous, November 03, 1999


Well, that is good news! I think I'll send them (Gartner Group) a quick note, so that they can let The Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade know about this - it seems these "guys" aren't aware of this as yet: http://www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/travelreport/y2k_e.htm Also, for anyone who has not seen the Industry Canada Y2K video - Lou Marcoccio (Gartner Group) was one of the speakers (the other was Joe Boivin). Also, I'm not suggesting Gartner Group is wrong, but jeepers this information does seem to conflict with FAIT. As well the original article is now on the Gartner website: http://gartner11.gartnerweb.com/public/static/home/home.html After all this "techno jumble" I've been reading and trying to decipher to try and figure this out, this does seem to be a reasonable and easily understood explanation. In fact it is soooo easily understood, why did it take this long to figure this out? And also, both public sector and commercial organizations claim they are ready! There's definitely some BS out there somewhere - I'm just not sure what the point of it is!

-- Anonymous, November 05, 1999

I wonder if their results would be the same if they took the oil & gas industries into consideration.

-- Anonymous, November 05, 1999

Sorry, can't control my knee jerk frustration when I read such overbearing, egoconcentric statements such as Gartner makes concerning electricity. They may well be right, but they certanly can't state it as an 'in your face' fact! My respect for Gartner opinions just racheted down several cogs.

-- Anonymous, November 09, 1999

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