This Reporter 'Gets it'

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Richmond-Times Dispatch, Sunday, October 31, 199

Y2K A PRUDENT GUIDE TO PREPARING FOR THE BIG TICK-TOCK by Bill McKelway Times-Dispatch Staff Writer

The instant the gem-studded millennial ball at Times Square reaches its nadir, the television screen goes blank, collapsing to a pinpoint of light and then total darkness. Sirens wail in the distance. A blue light from a passing police car scrapes across the wall and disappears.

The sound of gunshots booms and crackles off nearby homes and buildings and, in the dark, someone knocks over the $200 bottle of champagne.

"What the heck," you sheepishly remember having said when the subject of excessive cost for champagne came up in November. "This'll be the last bottle of the century."

Except for the date and the bogus rationale for buying an expensive booge, this little scenario barely differs from a normal New Year's Eve for a lot of Richmonders.

Remember last year's devastating ice storm that struck just before Christmas and left some families without electricity for almost two weeks?

Random gunshots on New Year's Eve have become nerve-shatteringly normal. Studies have shown that 5 of every 20 bottles of expensive champagne end up bubbling all over the floor.

A lot of what happens this mother of all New Year's Eves, in other words, will be entirely within the realm of usual bad luck and fickle weather.

It's certain, too, that many of those incidents will be misread as confirmation that the long-feared, little-understood phenomenon of Y2K meltdown has finally come to pass.

Armageddon arrived at midnight.

Experts are saying that the greatest thing we have to fear about Y2K may be fear itself. Misconstrued everyday mishaps could start a chain reaction of self-fulfilling, prophetic doom.

While government agencies and the country as a whole have spent billions of dollars preparing for and preventing Y2K destruction and inconveniense, the average homeowner will be fending largely for himself.

Despite all the assurances, we are about to enter an unknown world.

One school of thought suggest that homeowners needn't do anything to prepare for the big switchover.

But most experts are not treating Y2K lightly.

There is a reason that some power companies will have personnel at every substation, ready to manually restore power. There is a reason that public utilities, telephone companies, banks, transportation companies, police departments and scads of others will be ready to move Jan. 1 after a week of pure non-revelry.

There is a reason that the Federal Bureau of Investagation is warning law enforcement agencies to plan to respond to crazed individuals who see the millennium as an appropriate time to self-destruct.

The reason is simple.

"It's as simple as, 'We can't afford to take chances,'" said Janet Clements, veteran spokeswoman for the state Department of Emergency Services.

Clements and dozens of other emergency response personnel have long planned on holing up New Year's Eve at the department's bomb shelter-like emergency communications center on Midlothian Turnpike.

"Actually," said Clements, "we'll begin moving in Dec. 27."

"How many people we actually have on hand will be determined by what happens," added Clements, whose holiday tour of duty is "all part of my job. It's what I do."

The bomb shelter may be Virginia's most Y2K-defiant structure. Food, power and communications are all Y2K-proof. During the recent flooding and last year's ice storm, emergency services personnel were even able to issue press releases for beleaguered, shut-off communities, using amateur ham radio operators.

Clements, though, stressed that the department will not be a help line for individual residents.

Rather, the mandate for emergency services is to coordinate disaster responces of state agencies and to make sure Virginia government and service agencies are up and running.

For homeowners and the Y2K information-overloaded, the most important thing to do is prepare wisely and to begin NOW.

Don't let yourself be caught Jan.1 with a bathtub full of drinking water, a 10-pound bag of rice and a spilled liter of champagne.

Perhaps the biggest problem is knowing where to turn for help.

Internet Web sites, depending on their creators, are urging homeowners to buy everything from an extra rifle for self-protection to expensive generators and food processing equipment.

For the most reliable information, turn to reliable sources.

Clements said that the state's emergency services department has found the the American Red Cross is one of the better sources of information for the basic homeowner Y2K preparedness.

More than 120,000 of the straight-forward brochures have been distributed to local governments for citizen use and are available at the American Red Cross office in Richmond.

The basic message is this: Prepare well in advance as you would for a prolonged, major winter storm. The ice storm last Christmas, in other words, might have been great practice for what's to come.

But there is also this, according to the Red Cross: "Many experts predict the problem is more likely to be a presistent one over a few years rather than a single 'crash.'"

Y2K is a year, not a moment.

Still, the most widespread problems are most likely to occur in the first days of the year.

Think basic survival: food, shelter, clothing.

Remember what happens at Richmond area groceries when there is the slimmest chance of snow.

Now imagine what will happen at Richmond groceries when there is the slimmest chance at midnight Dec. 31 that life as we know it will end.

Make some basic decisions about what sort of lifestyle is reasonable.

The degree to which you want to live a normal life will be directly proportional to the amount of money and work it will take to accomplish that.

If you can't bear giving up luxuries, plan on spending a bundle. This means buying a generator, learning how to operate it and getting used to the steady roar of its engine.

And remember that just because you want life to proceed normally, that dosen't mean that everyone else does. The country club is closed? We can't go bowling? My ATM card dosen't work? The television stations are out? The interstate is closed?

If there are children in your family unit, it might be a good idea to sit down and talk about how things might change around the old homestead.

Life inside the manse might resemble a camping trip for a while.

How about a few test-run meals of warm powdered milk and bean soup cooked over a camp stove? That means cooked outdoors over a camp stove.

The Red Cross checklist of things-to-do is compact, but still time-consuming. Finding and checking with the manufacturers of electronic equipment alone is daunting. Garage door openers, computer games, thermostats, security systems and electronic locks could all malfunction or be damaged if preventive steps aren't taken.

The Red Cross brochure sends a sobering message, but it lacks detail.

The Red Cross brochure is a simple eight-page fold-out. The Complete Y2K Home Preparation Guide (Prentice Hall PTR, $19.99) is 389 pages.

And don't assume that the Red Cross is fully knowledgeable about what is about to befall us.

The Red Cross suggests preparing for a weeklong period of total disruption (electricity, water, food, etc.). Other reputable sources suggest that storing goods for a month-long interruption is preferable.

Water is critical. Typical water usage per person is about 60 gallons per day. Strict conservation can cut that consumption level down to five gallons. For a family of four, that's a lot of water-filled bathtubs.

Experts stress that residents should have materials at hand not only for water storage but for purifying it.

Food comes next. Begin stocking up on non-perishable food items such as beans and rice, cereals and powdered or canned milk.Even if nothing happens Jan. 1, the rush on food at groceries will be unprecedented. Buy early and plan menus that stress foods that don't need refrigeration.

Clothing is critical as well. Winter is coming. Have plenty of coats, sweaters, socks and dry shoes available. Blankets are basic and heat sources must be certified for indoor use. Don't expect to cook or heat indoors with the charcoal grill, for instance. Camping cook stoves should be able to use two types of fuel sources.

The millennial New Year's celebration, once envisioned as an opportunity for a great escape, is looking less and less exciting.

One Y2K preparation guide suggests that if you're determined to spend the New Year at the Pyramids, you might get just what you ask for. Being stuck in Egypt for a year might not be too farfetched a notion.

Having money on hand and proof of personal accounts, life insurance, stocks, bonds, wills and other similar items are essential. Get a deposit box or indestructible document holder for your home.

Experts warn that having too much cash on hand can be dangerous. Use travelers checks.

Batteries, flashlights, a transitor radio and a tankful of gasoline in the family car are all essentials.

And, finally, don't forget that 2000 is a leap year.

On second thought, go ahead and do forget it. Feb. 29 should be the least of your worries. _____________________________________________________________________

Also: Y2K web sites listed----

www.garynorth.com www.y2knews.com www.wild2k.com www.year2000.com www.readyfory2k.com www.yourdon.com



-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), November 01, 1999

Answers

Good for a fluff piece on Sunday. Contradictory info. Other pertinent info not fully researched.

Y2K is an event - not a moment or a year.

You haven't "gotten it", at least as evidenced by this piece. The underlying tone is one of "don't wanna get it"

-- mom (mom@mom.com), November 02, 1999.


Hi Mom,

Y2k is an event? I suppose so, if your events can last years (or decades).

-- Dean -- from (almost) Duh Moines (dtmiller@midiowa.net), November 02, 1999.


Well I have to say in (my non-techie) opinion that this is one of the fairest treatments of potential y2k problems. He doesn't come off hysterical or apathetic. I doubt that anyone will author a flawless piece. It actually has the potential to move some folks off the preparation fence.

beej

-- beej (beej@ppbbs.com), November 02, 1999.


Last time I checked the average requirement for water per person per day was 1 to 3 gallons. 60 gallons seems a little extreme to say the least.

-- ExCop (yinadral@juno.com), November 02, 1999.

Perhaps we could help this fellow out by pointing out some tips/info that need to be tweeked. He could do a follow-up piece with the more correct info. You're right ExCop. I'd forgotten that big difference. It might make it seem like it's an impossible situation to even try to prep for. My family members may use 60 gals a day now with their 1/2 hr. showers, but I guarantee you they'll be taking birdbaths if there's elec. outages. They've already been told that they have to pump what they plan on using from the pitcher pump...grin

beej

-- beej (beej@ppbbs.com), November 02, 1999.



60 gallons is, indeed, in the range of predicted residential water use per person under normal conditions. (In Massachusetts, it is calculated at 110 gallons per bedroom.) It represents a yearly average and accounts for toilets, showers, dishwashers, washing machines, watering lawns, the works. Amazing at how little water we really need (and why ratcheting down to 1 or 2 gallons a day will be such a culture shock).

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), November 02, 1999.

If you don't mind, I would be the last one to complain about this reporter's facts. We have emphasized so often people were not preparing for lack of Media attention to the problem, IMHO more like this could be a wake-up call. You can straighten out the facts when they begin looking for answers.

-- Tommy Rogers (Been there@Just a Thought.com), November 02, 1999.

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