It seems a question I asked on this forum is stirring up some new debate so I would like to re-ask the question but parse it. I, as probably most of you have guessed do not expect any major disruptions to our way of life due to Y2K. I would say Im between a 0 and 1 in terms of concern in that area. I.E., few if any life threatening disruptions to most people.

However in terms on annoyances due to billing errors, more snafus and glitches than usual Im a 3 to 4 in terms of post roll over problems. I think they will be in the pain in the neck category. Things that will make you make phone calls or write letters but things that will disruptive more then dangerous.

If Y2K comes and goes without much of a disruption when do you think youll realize that you were wrong.

1) In terms of Y2K seriously disrupting society? If not the end of the world at least where you might have to shoot your neighbor to save your preps.

2) In terms of long term effects seriously causing ongoing major disruptions to society as a whole where most people notice it in their everyday life?

3) In terms of knowing that if the stock market goes down or the price of gasoline goes up (as an example) itll be because of the business cycle and not related to Y2K?

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 01, 1999

Answers

Save this question and repost it in March 2000.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), November 01, 1999.

1) In terms of Y2K seriously disrupting society? If not the end of the world at least where you might have to shoot your neighbor to save your preps.

That IS the end of the world to me. I don't think even doomers think we will automatically sink to this level. Look at the Great Depression, even then, people generally didn't shoot each other.

2) In terms of long term effects seriously causing ongoing major disruptions to society as a whole where most people notice it in their everyday life?

Jan 1, 2000. Seriously, as a Software Engineer, I know that software projects take time.. Just because our work is kind of abstract to some people, it is really no different than building anything else. If you take shortcuts you end up with junk.

MY BIGGEST CONCERN is with our infrastructure being totally overwhelmed by a cascade failure (software + embedds). This will or will not be demonstrated on Jan 1, we will fully recognise it by Jan 10th.

ANYTHING AFTER THAT is irrelevant, in my opinion. We (the US) has BILLIONS of dollars to combat any type of tech bug you wish. As long as we have electricity, and people can basically work, we will fix it..

3) In terms of knowing that if the stock market goes down or the price of gasoline goes up (as an example) itll be because of the business cycle and not related to Y2K?

If there is no electricity for widespread areas for more than two weeks in the middle of winter, than the stock market won't mean much, people will freeze.

Personally, I think this will be a "2". I think PREPAREDNESS is the key though.. I'd feel pretty stupid after working for 14 years as an engineer to not spend a crummy 1K in supplies to feed my children.

Very stupid indeed.

Bryce

-- Bryce (Bryce@nospam.com), November 01, 1999.

I have to agree with Ken on this one. There may be some annoyances. The power may go out. No one knows. I think things will go on.

-- jb smith (joebobsmith@yahoo.com), November 01, 1999.

So much negative evidence, so little intellectual honesty.

-- a (a@a.a), November 01, 1999.

"If Y2K comes and goes without much of a disruption when do you think youll realize that you were wrong."

NEVER, because at this point in time NO ONE KNOWS. Show me a person who says they absolutely KNOW FOR SURE that nothing will be disrupted, and I will show you a person who is just as likely to be "wrong" as I am.

It is never "wrong" to expect the worst.

It is never "wrong" to believe in Murphy's Law.

It is never "wrong" to plan ahead.

It is never "wrong" to be prepared for a disaster.

It is never "wrong" to be prepared to survive by possessing whatever you feel you may need to survive life-threatening circumstances whether they be caused by disease, earthquake, hurricane, biological terrorism, solar storms, EMP detonation, nuclear war, or Y2K.

So what is it you are you trying to prove by saying we would be "wrong" to do this?

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), November 01, 1999.

The Engineer-- I don't know if you've read any of my posts over the last few weeks ...but I assure you I don't feel correct in taking on any label such as doomer or polly. I've stated that I simply don't believe anyone can state with any certainty how this will all pan out in 2000. Having said that...I respectfully turn one of your questions back to you and hope you'll answer. I'm interested in your reply.

If y2k comes and goes with MORE drastic disruptions than you personally anticipate, when do you think you'll realize you were wrong?

In my thinking, if what you anticipate doesn't happen exactly as you've stated above I wouldn't expect that you'd confess you were wrong simply because you've not cited any time period in which the problems would have to manifest themselves by ... if I'm reading your words correctly. If you've missed anticipating ONE life threatening disruption, i.e. extended electrical outages, that's quite an annoyance in that numbers of people that may lose their life as a result. So...even though it can be counted as ONE disruption, that's one I wouldn't want to miss planning for.

I'm not looking to convert your thinking, I simply wish you might understand I don't know exactly what to expect and when. Perhaps some of the tech type folks can give ME an idea as to how long we'd have to go before breathing a sign of relief. In the reading I've done on the y2k issue it seems that systems can infect compliant systems and this could take time. Can you fill me in on whether this is so?

beej

-- beej (beej@twars.com), November 01, 1999.

I'm prepared to be wrong, s**thead. Are you?

dave

-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), November 01, 1999.

C'mon Dave, let's keep it more on the up and up,whatdaya say?

(asked by a sweet Southern girl....)

After all, the Engineer *is* keeping this above board.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 01, 1999.

preparing: Do you like to gritwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 01, 1999.

I have two lovely daughters, I also have a life insurance policy 'in case'. I have also prepared for y2k 'in case'. I have read/analyzed reams of information regarding Y2k (and I still feel I have only scratched the surface). I have spearheaded my companies Y2k preparedness efforts and as a part of those efforts, contingency plans have been put into place. I feel I would be remiss in my responsibilities as a parent not to "plan for the worst, and hope for the best", and "have a good set of contingency plans in place for us." I have done what I can to prepare my company and my family. How could that possibly be wrong.

-- MIS (KarlaCALIF@aol.com), November 02, 1999.

My take:

1) In terms of Y2K seriously disrupting society? If not the end of the world at least where you might have to shoot your neighbor to save your preps.

Since I don't really see a sudden (in terms of hours or days) disruption, but rather a more prolonged slide, i would have to say probably at the 4th of July Millenium Mill Shoot and bonfire I'm planning.

2) In terms of long term effects seriously causing ongoing major disruptions to society as a whole where most people notice it in their everyday life?

I tend to expect to see these start in early Q1 and still be evident in Q1 2001, assuming my better case scenario.

3) In terms of knowing that if the stock market goes down or the price of gasoline goes up (as an example) itll be because of the business cycle and not related to Y2K?

Gas goes up and down regularly, but I would want to see supply chain data before making that kind of determination. (give us a break, willya this data would be available, and unless you are talking about a $5 increase in the price of gas [excluding a SERIOUS tax change] you are probably talikng about the current system).

BTW blaming any change in gas price due to "refinery problems" when the problems seem to go from refinery to refinery would be specious as it would be much more a clear Y2K effect.

You DID ask for opinions.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 02, 1999.

1. When they attempt to break into my house. 2. By the end of Jan. when the shelves are empty and there is NO gasoline. 3. When it falls below 7,000.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), November 02, 1999.

Back in the times of Floyd (hurricane that is) I saw a press conference of FEMA in either SC or NC. The person answering the question said -- "Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst." Why should it be different for the Y2K??

FLAME AWAY

With the current reserves of the crude oil we will be able to go for about 100 days at the current consumption level; however, if there will be problems with refineries (one of the real cases in the IEE embedded systems failures caselog), or problems with transportation -- then we might see gasoline shortage.

-- Brooklyn (MSIS@cyberdude.com), November 02, 1999.

Engineer, I realize you think you know everything, but I don't think you do.

If I admit that I don't know what is going to happen, but I see alot of evidence that disruptions may occur, and I prepare for serious disruptions, and I am wrong, big deal, the joke's on me.

If I believe you, and do nothing, and you are wrong, I am dead, or my life is severely disrupted.

Hmmm. What to do, what to do? I guess I will take care of myself and mine, and you can do whatever you think is appropriate. Don't tell me what I should be doing or thinking. I have no faith in you or your arrogant attitude. If this turns out badly, then it is you and others like you who will be to blame.

Godspeed,

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), November 02, 1999.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001AdE [snip]

Government's top Y2K expert predicts failures for weeks, months

July 30, 1999
Web posted at: 12:06 PM EDT (1606 GMT)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Don't expect the Year 2000 technology problem to disappear after Jan. 1. President Clinton's top Y2K expert said failures could extend well beyond New Year's Day.
 

Although John Koskinen predicts there will be a national "sigh of relief" in the early hours of Jan. 1, he also anticipates scattered electronic failures over the first days, weeks and even months of the new year.

Koskinen, chairman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, said in an interview Thursday with The Associated Press that some failures may not become obvious until the end of January, the first time after the date rollover that consumers review their monthly bank statements, credit-card bills and other financial paperwork.

"It won't evaporate until after that," Koskinen said. "Clearly, this is more than a January 1 problem." But he also slightly hedged his predictions: "None of us are really going to know until after January 1."

Unless repaired, some computers originally programmed to recognize only the last two digits of a year will not work properly beginning in 2000, when those machines will assume it is 1900.

Some computer systems may shut down quickly with obvious failures, and others may gradually experience subtle problems or degraded performance that may take weeks to notice.

"The more difficult problem will be where the system looks like it's doing it correctly but it's doing it all wrong," Koskinen said.

Some failures won't be recognized until the work week starts Monday, Jan. 3, as employees return to their offices and turn on their computers for the first time.

Repaired computers also will need to recognize 2000 as a leap year, even though most years ending in "00" don't need to adjust for Feb. 29, he said.

A new $40 million Information Coordination Center being organized down the street from the White House will operate until March, sharing information about failures with states, federal agencies, corporations and foreign governments. [snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 02, 1999.

Thank you for your responses. Ill try and clarify a little.

Bryce: I think you have to be more exact when you say no electricity in a widespread area for more then a few weeks. If memory serves me right this is the condition that happened due to an ice storm in Canada and New England last year. It was several weeks (and perhaps longer) before many people had their service restored.

Hawk: Sorry I totally disagree. There is a difference in being sensibly prepared for disruptions and trying to plan to survive for all of the conditions that you listed. True no one knows what will happen but you can say that for any time period. A lot of the things you mentioned have nothing to do with Y2K. Its one thing to carry some things in your car in case you have a breakdown. Its another to carry a spare engine in the trunk. Do you have one spare tire or four?

I should state here that I am not against preparing in general. It makes sense if you live in Florida to be prepared for a bad hurricane. Or if you live in California to be prepared for a bad earthquake. Its quite another, however, to try and prepare for Armageddon. Especially when its supposed coming seems to be signally lacking in evidence.

Beej: Im not sure I quite understand what you are saying but First if there are major and prolonged outages (due to Y2K ) Ill admit I was wrong. I wont be happy about it but if Im wrong Im wrong.

Second, there have been and will be electrical outages. Even if Y2K comes and goes as no more then a bump in the night (so to speak) there will be outages in the future due to bad storms, failed equipment, lack of generation, etc. So the idea that if nothing happens on the roll over nothing will ever happen is misplaced. But if there is an outage due to a transformer blowing up (as they do from time to time) I dont think it will be a Y2K cover up. A bad storm could occur on January 1st, as it did in Texas earlier this year. You can still be out of power but it wont be due to Y2K. To repeat myself. Its one thing to prepare for occasional outages. They have happened and will happen. Its another to try and get ready for everything that could possibly go wrong.

MIS: I dont think it is wrong in general. But I am assuming your life insurance premium isnt so large that you only feeding your children on macaroni and cheese because you are spending all your money on the premiums. Or you dont ever take them on a trip or go to the movies because all of your money is being spent on life insurance. I also assume your policy is enough to get them through school but not where they are set for life and wont ever have to work. There is a difference between being sensible and worrying about everything.

Chuck: Thanks.

Pinrock: No, not everything (well almost).

Linkmeister: As Mr. Decker said, save that link and post in around March.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), November 02, 1999.

King of Spain: Nope, I jello wrestle... interested? ;-)

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 02, 1999.