...let every man be swift to hear, slow to speak...

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...let every man be swift to hear, slow to be speak...

I take it some have this wisdom at heart.

I see no responses yet on this forum regarding Dale Way's critique of Ed Yourdon's "Y2K End Game" essay that was posted by Roleigh Martin.

Looking forward to hearing some comments, especially as one tries to evaluate the level of response needed to prepare on a personnal basis as well as on the community level.

I agree with Mr. Martin's comment that he posted at Timebomb2000, stating that "it isn't so much a critique of Yourdon's position as it is using Yourdon's paper as a stimulus, a springboard, to launch his compimentary take".

Can we expect more of these "personal takes" on the situation from key people?

Won't they be a neccessary element at this point in time, seeing not many in authority are taking this seriously enough?

Couldn't this impact decision making for contingency planning at all levels?

My hat's off to Mr.Way for speaking frankly even though he is in such a visible position as chairman of the IEEE Year 2000 Technical Information Focus Group.

Been enjoying your discussions on this forum for quite a while and will be "lurking" for a while yet:).

Regards,

Andri (andreg@ntl.sympatico.ca)

-- Anonymous, October 31, 1999

Answers

Links to this excellent piece were posted at the Yourdon forum yesterday, and there is now quite a lot of commentary.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001fqh

I don't do hot links, so you will have to paste the url into your address bar.

dave

-- Anonymous, October 31, 1999


Didn't sleep that well. I read it in its entirety and fairly slowly, a number of interesting points and possible areas of further clarification are addressed. My understanding is that the Chairman of the IEEE's Y2K investigation committee basicaly holds that because "compliance" was never practical in established systems within the current IT environment it is basically a meaningless term. His conclusion "If an organization goes off half-cocked, without complete, detailed knowledge of how its system of systems works altogether in all normal and possible abnormal situations, as the vast majority of remediators have done, yet make wholesale changes as if it did have that knowledge, they are doomed to failure unless it had many more years than the three of four most organizations have been at it." is sobering considering the source.

-- Anonymous, October 31, 1999

The original paper is at:

http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/end_game_criti que.htm

My original postings are at:

http://www.egroups.com/group/roleigh_for_web/1515.html?

http://www.egroups.com/group/roleigh_for_web/1515.html?

However, as stated, the feedback is at the TB 2000 forum, which is

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001fqh

Sorry, you'll have to use copy and paste techniques to use these links in a browser.

Roleigh Martin

-- Anonymous, October 31, 1999


Yow!

Double Yow!

This is a heck of a piece by Mr. Way. In some ways (no pun intended), he discounts the immediate effects of the century date rollover. But more importantly, he focuses on the longer term implications of the problem.

I have not read the entire article yet, but it is quite an eye opener from an extremely respectable source. I'll comment further when I've thoroughly read (and re-read) it.

I agree with the G-man: this paper is so chock full of implications, it might be hard to sleep tonight.

Here's a hyperlink to Dale Way's response to Ed Your

-- Anonymous, November 01, 1999


I'm sorry, that was Paul who couldn't sleep, not Gordon. ;-)

-- Anonymous, November 01, 1999


Oh, by the way Andre, I'm sure there will be a lot of comment on this paper. People in this forum seem to take their time in considering all aspects of any major Y2k missive, and certainly Mr. Way's paper qualifies as a major Y2k missive. Even so, the paper is apparently still evolving. Some clarifications and post scripts were posted last night at Roleigh Martin's site regarding Mr. Way's piece.

Personally, I want to print it out, read it another time or two (with a highlighter in hand), and write down some thoughts before I post any significant comments.

-- Anonymous, November 02, 1999


Rick,

When G-man reads it he probably won't be able to sleep well that night either, I think Yow or Ow sums it up pretty well

-- Anonymous, November 02, 1999


The IEEE Technical Information Statement reminds me quite a lot of the Naval War College's work on Y2K.

It's as good as it seems to get for predictions of outcomes. It's also very broad in scope.

It doesn't paint either a rosy picture or totally black one. It does acknowledge and reinforce the fact that the problem is incredibly huge, and the potential severity of the outcome is therefore also incredibly huge.

There's still no nailing down how severe it will be.

I have the distinct impression that those of us who at least admit the possibility for bad things is very real, have long ago gotten weary of being rebuffed by those who choose not to believe in such potential outcomes. Therefore we've grown more and more silent in our viewpoints. However; every once in a while we get frustrated with the situation and speak up, trying once again to let the others know the potential for very severe disruptions to our way of life really does exist! Mr. Way's rebuttal strikes me this way.

What's interesting, and somewhat comforting, is to have someone with the broadness of knowledge and insight into the Y2K issues as Mr. Way, speaking in manner so many of us want to be able to. Its comforting to know Im not alone, nor am I simply in the midst of shallow thinking people, nor am I simply among those with special interests that would benefit by sounding alarms.

I like having intelligent, responsible people reaching the same, or very similar conclusions Ive reached. It goes a long way toward validating the results of the time Ive spent investigating these matters.

Something else quite satisfying about Mr. Ways, and the IEEEs material is that it does require an attention span capable of containing and digesting more than a sound bite. Theres no mad dash to get to a foregone conclusion. Theres no forcing an opinion on anyone. The material is laid out with the available detail and an admission of its weaknesses.

Weve not done this before. The storm analogy is as good as any. Hurricanes can be quite destructive. Where they will hit cannot be predicted with perfect accuracy. How large it will ultimately be, and how severe the damage will be is unknown until after the fact, sometimes a very long time after the fact. After the storm passes there will be a recovery period. The effects of hurricane Floyd will be felt for many years to come by those most affected. The effects of Y2K could very well play out in a s

-- Anonymous, November 03, 1999


The effects of Y2K could very well play out in a similar manner.

Steve

-- Anonymous, November 03, 1999


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