Question for old time forum postersgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I don't get here as often as I did in the past and miss a lot of the posts. In the real world I hear very little talk of Y2k. At the age of 47 I have gone back to school.
I address my question to the old posters of the past two years. These are the people I know. What do you think the status of Y2k is today? Are you still as concerned as you were a year ago?
I look forward to reading you replies and trying to catch up on what I have missed these last couple of months. At one time many of the older posters were going to have another forum. Did it ever come about?
-- Linda A. (email@example.com), October 29, 1999
For myself, I believe that much work has been done in remediation. Certainly many soothing words have been said and printed. The question remains about whether or not enough has been done... Projects are slipping massively (as Ed Yourdon's theories/analyses predicted), costs are escallating. It doesn't look real good. News like the IRS Commoissioner admitting that they haven't finished inventory yet, is not encouraging. I think that the government is mostly successfully trying to prevent panic. Perhaps overly so.
My predictions are about the same as a couple of years back...not a 10, but probably a 7-9+. I'm trying to prepare for that level.
There are currently two other (TimeBomb 2000-related) forums (Preparations and Hympty-Dumpty). Humpty dumpty is for planning restoration after the mess.
-- Mad Monk (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 29, 1999.
Still a wavering "5." It could be better, but I have that horrible feeling it's worse.
Think Global. Or not.
-- Diane J. Squire (email@example.com), October 29, 1999.
Linda! How good to see (or read) you. I still think of your elaboration on Ed's chess game analogy...such good stuff. Your humor has been missed, too. I'm not really an old-timer, (1 year in November), but my view has changed over time. I've moderated from a 9 to a 4/6. Power and banking industries look better to me, other concerns remain mostly unchanged.
So how about you? Has your viewpoint changed with a Y2K time-out?
P.S. Very cool about continuing your education...congrats!
-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), October 29, 1999.
Linda, I'm still where I use to be because nothing has been reported that would change my mind otherwise. I keep waiting for something positive to be reported but who can believe a spin? We are dependent on foreign exports, we manufacturer very little consumables goods here in the USA. Because we are a global consuming world, everything works together, a computerized global economy. One glitch, one hitch, can bring down many sectors of manufacturing, and the trickle down effect. The Taiwan earthquake was a good example of that. I have planned accordingly and if nothing happens, so what, I have gained a tremendous amount of wealth. Wealth in friendship here on TB2000, knowledge, wisdom, and the priviledge to be a part of this historical event. Bardou
-- bardou (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 29, 1999.
Martial Law looms large for Federal Law Enforcement.
RUOK, didnt you read DEclan's piece, January 1999, re: Government spin concerning y2k? Do you really have a warm and fuzzy concerning electric, banking, comm., etc?
If not, all y'all need to read/reread it! It is a CLUE!!!
Why is the NIPC preparing for 7-10 days of black outs/brown outs in CONUS (USA) etc??????
-- brother rat (email@example.com), October 29, 1999.
Linda: same ole same ole -1% BITR (Kosky) 28% Recession (Yardeni) 50% Depression (Yourdon) 20% Collapse (Milne) 1% Devolution (Infomagic)
-- a (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 29, 1999.
beleive what you see, not what you hear
We see few results - so little is changed we hear spin - so nothing has changed we see complacency - so all is well we hear of apathy - so all is not so well
a 7 to 9 - maybe worse
-- Bob P (email@example.com), October 29, 1999.
Long time no hear Linda.
Things indeed have changed. Most notably how TPTB have made contingency plans to protect themselves and perhaps ensure a renewed level of "control" over a populace that is increasingly regarded as stupid and dangerous.
For what it's worth;
With the exception of mass-panic buying at the later weeks of December as everyone suddenly follows a silent alarm bell to be ready "just-in- case", I'm revised from an immediate 10+ collapse by January 20, 2000, two years ago to a current expectation of a 2 at the rollover.
Yes, I said a 2, a BITR.
There will be crying, and cheering and gasps of joy and sighs of relief, provided the power mainly stays up in the urban areas with sporadic power-outages in flyover country. Success will be declared, the military guard will ease their alert status, and the stock market begins rebuilding whatever profits were taken during any mid-Dec selloff.
Then follows from relief to ridicule and much crow eating as the triumphant pollies scream mercilessly for the heads of infamous "scare mongers" and doomers, and there is much merriment and cajoling over the wacky-far-right-fraidy-cats.
But by the beginning of February, no one will be laughing anymore, as things become more obvious than mild "irritants". Serious and noticable problems will become manifest. We could go from 2 to 3 in a few days to a week. The successful spin that worked so well during the Fall will fail, as 'Houston' realizes we have a problem. Unless of course the sinister in our midst successfully make scapegoats out of political impediments, and the public begins crying for blood at the conducting of our 'benevolent' leaders. Considering that all 'comtrol' implements are in place, and the public is conditioned to accept "changes and sacrifices" because of whatever propaganda campaign is instituted by the media in Dec., it would take nothing to turn us from a dwindling Republic to a Police State overnight.
From there it's all wet-pack snowball downhill fast. By late Summer we are at 10+, with economic impact most painful, not including any wars, sabotage, bio or nuke problems.
In a year plus...
There won't be any recognition that this was once the U.S. of A. It will have no resemblace whatsoever to our Founding documents, and whoever's left alive will probably wish they were dead.
The Postman won't be able to touch what's coming if our national time is up according to the Almighty. Indeed this nation will be found wanting....
I hope the gut is wrong...and it instead gets to digest disgusting crow, but the complacency that's starting to permeate even those I know that are preparing is starting to alarm me.
As Obi-Wan once put it: "This is a dangerous time for you, when you will be tempted by the [complacent] side of the Force.
We need not hear the words of the Emperor: "Young fools, only now, at the end, do you understand."
Let us not pay the price for our lack of vision.
-- INVAR (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 30, 1999.
Well, I've only been here 9 months (no wisecracks please), but it seems like years, so:
My opinion hasn't changed much in the past few months. We may be in for some deep stuff. I guess that's what happens when you start to read the details of government reports and stuff like that. The doomers looking at those details have confirmed my personal opinion. And the polly "spin" hasn't done much to move me the other way. Some things never change, I guess...
TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Preparation Forum
My new sig: <:)=
Tick... Tock... <:00=
-- Sysman (email@example.com), October 30, 1999.
Hi Linda. Welcome back.
Alas there are a lot of idiots on this forum nowadays. Such is life.
My take - as bad as ever.
Whatever - I'm resigned now - will do just fine whatever happens:)
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 30, 1999.
I'm up around a 10, but then I always have been a pessimist. I just can't see it any other way.
-- Apple (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 30, 1999.
Welcome Back, Linda! Congrats on your return to school. I finished my BA in my mid-30s,...Most fun I've ever had with clothes on.
As to predictions, I dropped my crystal ball the other day while trying to clean it,...(so I could see more clearly) :-) Smithereens!! These days I rather like measuring the emotional air pressure of groups of people as an indicator of how anxious people are about life in general on the big blue marble. In checking the anxiety barometer on Y2K related issues on the Net, I find tempers short, rhetoric long, and name-calling at an all-time high. If regression to previous developmental levels of well-being is any sign, then, Y2K or no Y2K, people are as nervous as long-tailed cats in a room full of rocking chairs.
Breathe everyone. Waiting is.
-- Donna (email@example.com), October 30, 1999.
FWIW, I use the old 80/20 rule (paredo effect). I suspect that in the US and Canada, 80% of the date-sensitive software and embedded systems will be remediated in time or repairable within a short enough time period to cause no permanent or cascading damage.
20% can cause a hell of a lot disruption (80%?), and can cascade to disable even prepared organizations. Which causes further cascades. In the end I suspect it will come down to how much employee loyalty and civic-mindedness there is.
The international scene is not good, but I find it hard to get a sense of just how dependent other countries are on computers. Something like half of all the computing power in the world is in the US. Sudden political instability in unexpected places scares me the most. And if it's bad, the US will be blamed.
Widespread panic, if it happens at all, will be after Christmas. The financial industry will spend any amount of money neccesary to avoid bank runs. In the process, Y2K is trivialized as a non-threat to any sector. We will be spun and soothed and confused right up until rollover.
I agree with INVAR about rollover being low-intensity. Expectations will high, and when after 72 hours CNN starts covering football again, we'll see how long it takes for things to publicly, frighteningly unravel.
I still view it as I did a year ago: It won't be a heart attack. It will be cancer. Long and scary and ugly with an indeterminant outcome.
Glad you started this thread. Very interesting to hear the view from so many old familiar names.
-- Lewis (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 30, 1999.
I've been here almost two years. I don't post much anymore because of the lack of quality of some of the messages. Many are still good; you just have to sift.
I'm still a 7-9, but firmly convinced that that's a slippery slope to a 10. There are just too many indications that not enough work has been done.
As a nation, we are now entirely dependent on government and government just ain't gonna' make it. Anyone who understands how bureaucracy and the government work knows it doesn't--and can't--perform.
I'm one of those who thinks embeddeds are going to make it ugly, and I believe our most critical shortcoming is going to be in the area of oil recovery, refining and delivery. There are just too many chasms along the way.
Just my two cents.
-- Vic (Roadrunner@compliant.com), October 30, 1999.
INVAR--Appreciated your phrase "dwindling republic." How succinct in these times, Y2K or not, the continual slide into facist socialism continues. Let's hope our kids won't have to quote the Emporer, but alas MTV has them mesmerized.
-- Rasty (Rasty@bulldoggg.com), October 30, 1999.
Indeed Rasty, indeed.
I like your most accurate description of what we're becomming: A Fascist, Socialist Society.
It continually amazes me how the so-called "educated" in our society misplace and improperly use "fascist" to describe those they think are intolerant.
They don't realize that fascism is happening right under their noses....and they LIKE IT.
-- INVAR (email@example.com), October 30, 1999.
Hello, Linda. I agree with the others above who suspect that the onset of serious disruptions will be gradual rather than immediate... and I still see the potential for a 7+/- situation. There are already numerous examples of y2k-generated disruptions. One very interesting and sobering indication of the probability that government "just won't make it" is the following link to the Feb 99 testimony of the USPS Inspector General, submitted by and commented-on by Big Dog. I showed it to the Postal people at the two rural Post Offices near me, and they were just stunned. Check it out at: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000Y3V
-- Norm Harrold (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 30, 1999.
For what it's worth, my opinion:
(1-3) 10% BITR (Kosky); ~ the crash of '87
(4-7) 60% Recession (Yardeni); ~ 1973 Oil Embargo or the 1980-82 contraction
(7-9) 25% Depression and Civil/Global turmoil (Yourdon); ~ the crash of '29 followed by global chaos, authoritarian response, and world war
(10) 4% Collapse (Milne or Scary Gary); ~ the Bubonic Plague of the 14th century
(10+) 1% Devolutionary Sprial (Infomagic); ~ the extinction of the dinosaurs.
I think what i do because of the extreme lack of public concern and the utter shock/disillusionment that inevitable disruptions will produce in a populace accustomed to unprecedented, prolonged prosperity. Disruptions are inevitable because--while tremendous progress has been made--the burden of proof lies in recent reports which objectively state that large and small corporations alike will only complete 70-80% of their _mission critical_ systems in time. Furthermore, rumblings from the .gov crowd indicates that they are at least considering if not planing for widespread breakdowns in public services and civil strife. Finally, the fact remains that some dangerous fringe groups want to exploit any window of vulnerability they can so that they can burn/destroy as much as possible...no these are not law-abiding citizens with guns for home protection or stockpiles of Dinty but genuine psycho-freaks who think they are on a mission from God Almighty.
-- coprolith (email@example.com), October 30, 1999.
Yup Coprolith, you're dead-on right in your last paragraph.
There are those idiot morons out there that are on a misguided crusade to "force" God to bring about the end of the age. They are blind, dangerous religionist idiots that have no understanding of scripture whatsoever. They are just deceived instruments being used to promulagate terror.
Unfortunately, the rest of the Faithful are being lumped into that same group. Partly out of sheer ignorance by most, and by insidious design of others with an agenda.
Be awake and aware. The days of evil draw nigh.
-- INVAR (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 31, 1999.
I think likely a 5 minimum; my upper limit took a leap when I read Westergaard's estimates of small business. Locally, our power is in good shape and I think the financial institutions may scrape through. However, our city's water remediation program is now on schedule to be completed on Nov. 18th. Argh
-- Tricia the Canuck (Tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), October 31, 1999.
I am as pessimistic as ever, nothing has happened to change my assessment of Y2K. I think, based on the comments above, people who see reason to be more optimistic than a few months ago appear to be basing their optimism on two things:
1) Self-reported, completely unverified, claims from government and industry that everything is going to be just fine.
2) The general acceptance of the public at large of these claims, thus adding a sort of surreal but calming effect.
Occasonally, of course, The Mask slips. The Navy Report of last Summer. The recent admission by the IRS that they have yet to complete an inventory of what systems they have and how they interconnect. Continued reports of large scale preparation of government and industry for power outages. The training drills by our armed forces for martial law type activities.
I am absolutely convinced that we will enter January 1, 2000 with a lot of broken code. Exactly what the effect will be, I cannot say. But there has been nothing to suggest that things look any better today than they did a year ago. The only thing that has changed is that we are a lot closer to 1/1/2000.
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 31, 1999.