This report is Disturbing (From Westergaard) : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

This report is disturbing. Small Businesses Large Businesses Local Governments Healthcare Education
  • 70% of schools and colleges will not be ready.18 Federal Government
    • Is not ready for 2000 and will not be ready.19

    • Has been painting the "positive" picture for the public. "The administration is fooling itself and luring the American public into a false sense of security."20

    • "and the job is still not completed. Progress during this quarter, which ended on August 15 (1999), is discouraging. The flurry of activity we saw among federal agencies earlier this year has slowed to a snail's pace."21 (My emphasis.)

    • "the overall federal government improved its compliance rate by a measly one percent during the last three months."22 (My emphasis.)

    • Will likely see the need to intervene in the economic sector, as well as in the governmental sectors at the state and local levels, and internationally. "Pentagon officials say the idea behind the change is to give a president options short of martial law to deal with domestic crises."23 (My emphasis.)

    • We may see the federal government intervene in the stock market by suspending trading if the market begins declining rapidly. A significantly sustained decline in the value of stocks will herald the beginning of the worldwide recession, which I believe we will experience. (See "Worldwide Economic Impact" topic below.) Also, the government may need to regulate/adjust wholesale and retail prices and interest rates in an effort to stave off the deflationary effects of Year 2000 problems worldwide.

    • Almost every Year 2000 report you see, from every source, talks about mission critical systems. These are the systems, which if not working, can shut the business (or government) down; they are essential to the "mission" of the organization. The federal government's count of its mission critical systems has varied monthly:
    U.S. Federal Government's Year 2000 Percent Compliance Reported, Versus Its Actual Percent Compliance, Considering Reclassified Mission Critical Systems 24

    Date Data Received Number Mission Critical Systems Reported Number Compliant Per the Report Percent Compliant Per the Report Actual Percent Compliant Based on Nov. 97's 8,589 Count (Before Reclassification Began) Compliance Percentage Points Gained by Gov's Reclassification of "Mission Critical Systems"
    June 97 7,64925 1,598 21% N/A N/A
    Aug 97 8,56226 1,646 19% N/A N/A
    Nov 97 8,58927 2,296 27% 27% N/A
    Feb 98 7,85028 2,716 35% 32% 3%
    May 98 7,33629 2,913 40% 34% 6%
    Aug 98 7,34330 3,692 50% 43% 7%
    Nov 98 6,69631 4,069 61% 47% 14%
    Feb 99 6,39932 5,045 79% 59% 20%
    Mar. 31, 1999 Deadline* 6,12333 5,633 92% 66% Compliant. NOT 92%. 26%
    May 99 6,19034 5,780 93% 67% 26%
    Aug 99 6,34335 6,126 97% 71% Compliant. NOT 97%. 26%

    -- Helium (, October 28, 1999
  • Answers

    *President's deadline to have all federal government systems compliant was 31 March 1999. Worldwide Economic Impact Summary
    1National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), Survey shows half of all small firms preparing for Y2K; Almost three million have acted to prevent "millennium bug" (NFIB Online: News Releases, May 24, 1999. (This address may not work as a link from this page. May get "Illegal Operation." If so, type this address in manually on your browser: Once there, click on "SITE SEARCH," then type in "survey shows half" and click on Search. Then click on the title of the article to view it.)

    The President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, VARBusiness, and many others quote this report.

    Also see:

    President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, 100 Days to Y2K (Press Release, September 22, 1999. 2prls.html), and 100 Days to Y2K: A Resource Guide for Small Organizations ( 2doc3.html).

    Also, David Myron, Y2K Looms Over Small Business (VARBusiness, September 27, 1999. http: //

    NFIB research indicates that 60% of the small businesses had done something to prepare for Year 2000; therefore, 40% had done nothing, with 75% of that group actually planning to do nothing (which is 30% of the total).

    My position is, and my projections are, that any company, organization or government, which was not completely ready by mid-year 1999, will not be completely ready by 2000. A portion of that 60% of small businesses will not be fully ready, and since 30% actually plan to do nothing, it is easy to see that at least 40% of all small businesses will not be ready for 2000 when it arrives.

    I have taken this position with all sectors on which I have reported in this document: i.e., 100% of the sector, less the percentage of those "ready" leaves the percentage of those "not ready." Those not ready will also not be ready at 1 January 2000. Given that any survey results are usually several months old by the time we digest them, in the case of Year 2000 I have seen that the patterns displayed by any particular survey hold true from report to report, survey to survey. At this late date in the Year 2000 issue those patterns for any group or sector under observation will continue until 2000 gets here, and beyond.

    2 Ibid.

    3Stephen Barr, All Okay On Y2K? Not Yet (, September 27, 1999. 9sep27.htm)

    4David Myron, Y2K looms Over Small Business (VARBusiness, September 27, 1999. http: //


    6Ibid. Also: Statement of John A. Koskinen, Chairman, President's Council On Year 2000 Conversion. January 20, 1999. ( cil/JKTE0120.htm).

    7Stephen Barr, All Okay On Y2K? Not Yet (, September 27, 1999. 9sep27.htm).

    8Small Business Administration (SBA), Y2K Action Loan Program ( nancing/fry2k.html). Also: U.S. Senate, Small Business Year 2000 Readiness Act (February 23, 1999. ht tp://
    9CIO Magazine News Bureau, Y2K Experts Poll Exposes Incompletion and Complacency (Press release, September 30, 1999. http://www

    10Cap Gemini America, With 100 Days Remaining, 82 Percent of Major Firms Say Year 2000 Poses "No Significant Business Risk" (Press Release, September 22, 1999.


    12CIO Magazine News Bureau, Y2K Experts Poll Exposes Incompletion and Complacency (Press release, September 30, 1999. http://www


    14President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, 100 Days to Y2K: A Resource Guide for Small Organizations ( 2doc3.html).





    19Rep. Stephen Horn, R-CA, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology, Horn Releases Ninth Y2K Report Cards (News Release, September 10, 1999. http://www.hous

    20House Majority Leader Dick Armey, R-Texas, USAToday, Most critical govt. systems Y2K-ready (USAToday Tech Report, April 1, 1999. http://www.u

    21Horn, Horn Releases Ninth Y2K Report Cards (News Release, September 10, 1999. http://www.hous


    23Jamie McIntyre, Military Affairs Correspondent, CNN, Expanded domestic use of U.S. military raising civil liberty concerns (, October 7, 1999. http ://

    24Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget (OMB), 4th Quarterly Report (February 15, 1998. .htm).

    This was the first of the reports explaining why the number of mission critical systems identified keeps going down: "This change occurred because senior management in several agencies refined their lists of mission-critical systems." The 5th Quarterly Report noted below, also contains such text: "senior Federal managers have reevaluated which systems are critical to their organizations' missions and set priorities within their organizations." Further reports use the same text with simply adding the words "continue to reevaluate"

    25OMB, Getting Federal Computers Ready for 2000. Progress Report, (first report, June 23, 1997. krev.htm).

    26OMB, Progress on Year 2000 Conversion (second summary report, August 15, 1997. krp897.htm).

    27OMB, Progress on Year 2000 Conversion, 3rd Report (November 15, 1997. knov97.htm).

    28OMB, 4th Quarterly Report (February 15, 1998. .htm).

    29OMB, 5th Quarterly Report (May 15, 1998. rpt.html).

    30OMB, 6th Quarterly Report (August 15, 1998. .htm).

    31OMB, 7th Quarterly Report (November 15, 1998. ecdraft6.htm).

    32OMB, 8th Quarterly Report (February 12, 1999. http://www.cio. gov/files/8thQuarterlyReport.pdf).

    33USAToday, Most critical govt. systems Y2K-ready (USAToday Tech Report, April 1, 1999. http://www.u

    349th Quarterly Report (May 14, 1999. http://www.cio. gov/files/9thQuarterlyReport.pdf).

    3510th Quarterly Report (August 13, 1999. ).

    36Paul Malamud, Koskinen Says U.S. Government is Y2K Ready (U.S. Department of State, U.S. Information Agency, February 24, 1999. http://www.

    37President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, Federal Government Nears Completion of Y2K Work On Mission-Critical Systems (Press Release, March 31, 1999. PRL2.htm).

    Also: Major Federal Departments and Agencies-Y2K Status, (March 31, 1999. OT.htm).

    Also: U.S. Department of Energy, Most Federal Agencies Ready for Y2K - 92% of Mission Critical Systems Meet March 31 Goal for Compliance (Y2K Fast Facts, April 2, 1999. http://

    38Rep. Stephen Horn, R-CA, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Government Management, Information, and Technology, Horn Releases Ninth Y2K Report Cards (News Release, September 10, 1999. http://www.hous


    40Horn, Governmentwide Year 2000 Issues and the Department of the Treasury (Opening Statement, March 18, 1998. v/science/horn_03-18.htm).

    41Dale Vecchio, Gartner Group, Inc. Quoted in the following: David Myron, Y2K Looms Over Small Business (VARBusiness, September 27, 1999. http: //

    42Horn, Governmentwide Year 2000 Issues and the Department of the Treasury (Opening Statement, March 18, 1998. v/science/horn_03-18.htm).

    43Dr. Edward Yardeni, Chief Economist & Global Investment Strategist, Deutsche Bank, Alarmist Shrugs (The Y2K Reporter, October 11, 1999. http://www.yardeni .com/public/y_19991011.pdf). Also: Yardeni, Reassessing Y2K Recession Odds (February 22, 1999. http://www.yardeni .com/public/y_19990222.pdf).

    Also: Dr. Reynolds Griffith, Y2K Economic Forecasts (September 21, 1999. http://cobweb.sfasu.ed u/~rg/forecast.htm).

    Dr. Yardeni, in his October 11, 1999 report states that he still sees a 70% chance of a recession. Having spent my career in IT, and having been Y2K project manager for a major international corporation for over three years -- in other words, "I've been on the inside of this" -- I think the real chances of a recession are between 75% and 100%. Dr. Griffith presented the economic forecast from seven sources, including Dr. Yardeni's. Referencing his table: I eliminated the S&P forecasts since they were not current (March 1998). By averaging the five probability scenarios for the six forecasts in the table, you will see that the average for "recession" is 49%. The average for "depression" is 11%. The two combined then total 60%, the probability of their being a recession or depression.

    44Ibid. Yardeni.

    45Ibid. Yardeni.

    46Ibid. (My projections and opinions, based on the above information, and similar data.)

    47Ibid. (My projections and opinions, based on the above information, and similar data.)

    -- Helium (, October 28, 1999.

    The pink slips will be handed out soon. (layoffs)

    -- snooze button (, October 28, 1999.

    you messed this whole PAGE up.

    So, are you implying that Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED???

    -- lisa (, October 28, 1999.

    Thanks Helium!

    -- not laughing gas (where's@my.prozac), October 28, 1999.

    IMHO you could have this information on the front page of every newspaper in the country and the sheeple will just keep on snoozing. It will take a major reportable failure to wake this crowd up. zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

    -- y2k dave (, October 28, 1999.

    Yep, it's amazing with all these numbers coming out that people still think y2k is nothing but hype. What they don't realize is that we don't need the lights, telephones, water to go out to have a depression. This is bad enough.

    -- Larry (, October 28, 1999.

    Thanks, Helium, for this valuable information. It is solid info like this that we really need. Pretty scarey, isn't it? Makes one wish she'd begun preparing ten years ago, not five months ago!

    -- Elaine Seavey (, October 28, 1999.

    Thanks for posting this, Helium. I just found it too, and was going to post it.

    This is quite an amazing document. I simply cannot understand how ANYBODY can be so cavalier as to think that Y2K will not at the least cause economic woes that nobody will be able to escape, when there are documents like this floating around. The mind boggles that there people like and "Robert X. Cringely" who (seemingly) simply refuse to look at data like this.

    And, of course, this document says NOTHING about other countries, which with the possible exceptions of Canada, Australia and New Zealand, are in worse or much worse shape than the U.S. (OK, maybe there are about 40 computers in Mali or Laos -- I'm talking about Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.)

    -- (, October 28, 1999.

    bold off

    This is a keeper, and should be on its way to everyone's printer. If the SHTF, this will become a historical record that will help to answer the question "What the f*** happened and who is responsible?"

    -- semper paratus (print@for.posterity), October 28, 1999.

    3:07pm EST. Would a strong urge for a martini be a suitable reponse to this delightful information?

    -- Gia (, October 28, 1999.


    Make mine a double (although I prefer Greyhounds).

    -- cavscout (hunkerin'@my.bunker), October 28, 1999.


    Where the heck is that idiot polly when the guns are ALL

    ------SMOKIN--> > > > >:)ouch

    -- D.B. (, October 28, 1999.

    I was in such a hurry this morning I forgot to post the author:

    By Warren Bone October 28, 1999

    Things will get worse before they get better

    -- Helium (, October 28, 1999.

    Warren Bone's Biography:

    Warren Bone initiated the Year 2000 Project in mid-1996 for Gaylord Entertainment Company (NYSE: GET), an international company headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, with over 60 operating companies. He directed and managed the project for over three years and has dedicated his time to the research and activities related to Year 2000 issues since mid-1996.

    He has over 25 years experience in Information Technology (including management, systems engineering, design, and development), public accounting, strategic planning, contingency planning and disaster recovery, marketing, product management, business consulting, computer security and crime prevention, and Year 2000.

    He earned his Master of Business Administration degree following his undergraduate degree in accounting. His Year 2000 studies include daily research of more than 70 selected Y2K web sites, including those of the U.S. government.

    He is now a Year 2000 consultant to CPAs and attorneys, and their clients.

    Contact Warren Bone Email: Telephone:(615) 353-0249

    -- Cheryl (, October 28, 1999.

    ....the effort put into this "attempt" to finally give the doomers something that they can print out and give to those poly's dearest to them, is much appreciated. I will be printing and distributing several copies. Thanks! Is there a way to download and save this thread as a document and then attach it to an e-mail?

    -- Vern (, October 28, 1999.

    The way i send any information I find on the net is simple

    Place mouse at the beginning of the document click and hold the left button and drag the mouse down until you reach the end of what you want. Then release you will see it is all highlighted. Now go to Edit on the top of the Netscape Navigator window and open it. Then choose copy.

    Now go to your mailbox hit the letter on the bottom tray and choose new message go to the body of it you can fill in email address and subject after. Hit edit on the email window and hit paste. Now you have the article word for word on the email body and you can scrool up to the top to put in your greeting or whatever.

    Just for laughs people want to hear about my first computer 15 years ago. It was state of the art at the time.

    Speed 8 megahertz Ram 2 HD 20 mb no sound except built in puter speaker no graphics except for symbols like geometric shapes modem 1200 baud no mouse no directory and dos 2.1

    you had to write out the commands and most often you got the response "too many perimiters" it was a lot of fun. If you wanted to leave one program for another (no multitasking here) you had to exit then go back to c:\ and write cd.. Enter cd.. Enter that took you out of one directory and then out of the main directory which might have been games or such

    now to get a new program up and running you wrote at the command prompt c:\ cd games Enter c:\games\uno and use the keyboard strokes to play each game was a differnt game plan and required you to learn what keys did what.

    Talk about primitive but being female i was determined to learn all this and it took me 6 mos at a local college.

    I look back now and think of how great i thought it was now i am in heaven. Four computers later. I can even build them now but then fifteen years anyone should.

    -- Susan E. Barrett (, October 28, 1999.

    Link to the Westergaard article:

    Year 2000 Facts, Forecasts, and Areas of Concern

    Nice summary of the Fed's massaging of compliance numbers. Hey, if I could throw out 25% of the systems in scope on a project, I could hit a closer deadline as well.

    -- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 28, 1999.

    I read that report this morning and I think the K-12 statistics are way under reported. In my last job I was a vertical manager in charge of public sector marketing. K-12 has more that 85,000 public schools in the US. Infrastructure deterioration and catchup is a big issue. If one third will not be ready, how does that relate to just 1000-1500 schools unable to open. Even 5-10 per cent of the schools equates to a lot of schools and a lot of the 45+million students

    To take it further, what does that mean to parents who have to scramble for child care.

    And, we are already seeing issues where payroll is honked (Philadelphia). If there are more than 16,000 school districts in the US, I would bet money that more than one payroll system will be in trouble. Then there is the reporting that goes on for attendance. Districts receive funds from their states based upon average daily attendance. some states measure it hourly, others take a swag twice a year. And food service reimbursement for children who qualify for free or reduced cost lunches and on, and on...

    -- Nancy (, October 28, 1999.

    No need to make any preparations, a 3 day supply is plenty...

    -- Tricia the Canuck (, October 28, 1999.

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