The lull before the storm (from WND)greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
The lull before the storm
) 1999 Michael S. Hyatt
For several weeks now Y2K vendors have been reporting that sales have slowed. People seem to be less interested in preparing for Y2K than at any other time in the last 12 months. I think this is due in large part to the "spin" and disinformation being promulgated by the Clinton administration and various industry spokespeople.
And it seems to be working. Just when we began getting some momentum, the public has stuck its collective head in the sand and gone back to sleep. Or perhaps they've just "flipped the channel" to focus on one of the many other diversions that are more immediate, threatening, or entertaining.
Regardless, I believe this presents a unique opportunity to those who are not asleep at the wheel. The media are currently preoccupied with the troubles in East Timor and whether or not George W. Bush used cocaine 25 years ago. However, sooner or later the facts are going to come out. (In fact they are readily available now to anyone who cares to read them.) And when they do, John Q. Public is going to wake up, smell the coffee, and realize that he hasn't been told the whole story.
At that moment, I believe we will see millions of Americans scramble to make preparations "just in case." And at that moment the door of opportunity will slam shut and people will regret that they were so naive as to believe everything they were told.
My prep-tip for today is to take advantage of the lull before the storm. Make the preparations you know you need to make and do it now. You may not get this opportunity again. Don't squander it.
-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 28, 1999
A good time to put aside extras for others too. How about Christmas Baskets (or buckets) with basic storeables.
-- snooze button (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1999.
Thanks. I was greeted this morning by a Y2K joke and a note from a friend to someone else citing me as a Y2K nut and ccing me. So I am now sending her a few non-jokes. This piece is good.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 28, 1999.
a small wood stove mfgr I know is long inventory by 300 units; "Y2K sales are just not materializing like they thought they would"...
FWIW: I'm convinced the lull will remain a lull [unless or until some precipitous event occurs) - why?
1) because almost no one has any excess liquidity with which to buy any preparations; [cf. the negative savings rate]
[we can discuss that premise in all the ramifications you care to, but in the end, I believe that to be reality - MOST PEOPLE ARE BROKE], thus,
2) whether one knows about the Y2K problem or not [and I believe most people ARE aware of the Y2K problem], if one knows that one can do nothing about the problem, then why would one allow thoughts about solving the problem to enter ones mind...?
3) thus, the lull, or the malaise, or the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome we all see
4) sad to conjecture, but if I am right (i.e. that little or no preparations will be done by the majority of the population), the resulting effect will be more problemmatic (if Y2K problems are greater rather than lessor); i.e.
- if an event should occur that precipitates an immediate, mass, hysterical reaction among the populace, the result will be far worse than if most had prepared in some manner. [thus, Paula Gordon's calls for the populace to have been better informed long ago are valid]
-- Perry Arnett (email@example.com), October 28, 1999.
The "lull before the storm" talk has been around all year. It looks to me like there never will be a mass panic. I am not saying there won't be a y2k crisis, only that most people won't believe it til it happens and there will not be a panicy last minute prep.
-- Lars (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1999.
I sent this to somebody that sent me a y2k bug that looked like a chip, only the head was shaped like a skeleton. I thought sending her the article was very appropriate. A man committed suicide because he was distraught over his y2k fixes (they weren't going well). I told her to send a box of these bugs to his widow. It may be distasteful on my part, but I'm tired of these damn polly's making fun of me all the. Get nasty, send of few of your own out and turn the tables.
-- Larry (email@example.com), October 28, 1999.
How can this be?
MOST PEOPLE ARE BROKE!!
I just heard CNBC say that the economy is better than ever thanks to the Clinton administration!! lol
-- D.B. (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1999.
Warning: freelance prognosticator at work...
Over the next 2-3 weeks, a truly alarming Y2K story will appear in the main-stream media. You'll know it's bad news and that Y2K is Known To Be Dangerous, because within 24 hours an even more shocking story will mysteriously appear. My bets are on a political sex scandal involving sex or money or both and a non-democrat. The Y2K story will vanish from the media, replaced by a Monica-like media frenzy. This will occupy the collective consciousness (or is that an oxymoron?) for at least two weeks. After which, it won't matter anymore.
The key to magic is mis-direction.
note: don't make life-changing decisions based on my comments. It's just that the above scenario wouldn't surprise me a bit.
It's autumn in New England, and truly beautiful. Although the squirrels seem oddly threatening...
-- Lewis (email@example.com), October 28, 1999.
Here's my two-cent theory: IF there is any panic at all (I tend to agree w/whoever said there might not even be one), it won't start until December 26 or 27 at the earliest. Why? NOTHIN' messes with American Christmas! Especially not the LAST one of the millenium!!!
-- preparing (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 28, 1999.
Re: There will not be a panic...
As an internet retailer of preparedness products, I can tell you that we are experiencing a slowdown in sales. The year in scale....:
Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-7 May-6 Jun-4 Jul-3 Aug-3 Sep-4 Oct-3 Nov-? Dec-?
My guess is that November will be a 6 or 7, and December will be a 10.
We believe that only about 5% of the population has taken Y2k preparation seriously enough to prepare for a global depression or close to it, disruptions in utilities, etc. If only 2% of the population attempts to prepare fully in the remaining 30-45 days of the year, there is absolutely NO POSSIBILITY companies like mine, hardware and camping stores, etc. will have the inventory necessary to take care of them.
However, our belief is that we will see a spike in late November, even more in December, a lull in the first 2 weeks of January, then as the people begin to hear about and see what a systematic breakdown can do to our infrastructure and economy, we will see another 20% of the people take Y2k seriously enough to prepare for what might happen to them. Where the inventory will come from at that point is anybody's guess.....
Are you prepared to be wrong?..... I am.
-- Mark (email@example.com), October 28, 1999.