Milne: Just when you thought you'd heard everything: Pollies now blaming doomers for people's lack of preparations

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Subject:Re: WDCY2K Meeting of 13 October, 1999-long pt.1
Date:1999/10/25
Author:Paul Milne <fedinfo@halifax.com>
Posting History Post Reply

Bradley K. Sherman <bks@netcom.com> wrote in message
news:7v0l2v$3eo$1@nntp2.atl.mindspring.net...
> In article <940815672.870670@helium.cstone.net>,
> Paul Milne <fedinfo@halifax.com> wrote:
> >You have put off and put off and put off preparation. You declare nothing
to
> >be of significance. So be it. And now, in the event that something does
> >happen that strikes a chord with you, it will be striking everyone else
at
> >the same time.
>
> If anything goes wrong now, the fault lies with those of you who
> undermined the preparation movement with your silly predictions for
> 1999.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!

Yup. all those who were warning people to prepare are the ones who caused people not to prepare.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHHA!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!


So the burden is clearly on the shoulders of doomer spokemen
> like you, Yourdon, Hyatt and Lord. I tried to save you by telling
> you that your pre-Y2k predictions were nonsense, but no, you had
> to go ahead and repeat every silly thought about the lookahead
> errors. And it's all on the record.
>

My post was directed at YOU bozo. YOUR family. YOUR kids.

And now you are going to blame ME for your lack of preparation if you are wrong.
But it was nice of you to snip out the whole post so that the rest of the newsgroup could not see that this was aimed at YOUR own PERSONAL preparations.


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Answer the issue in the post bks. What happens to YOUR family if you are wrong?

ANSWER IT, BOZO.

--
Paul Milne
"If you live within 5 miles of a 7-11, you're toast"


> --bks
>



-- a (a@a.a), October 26, 1999

Answers

Blame the messengers, off with their heads.

-- Bluebeard (ship@wreck.sink), October 26, 1999.

It's not my fault I din't prepare. I was scarred by the constant arguing between my mother and granmother.

-- Mr. Mike (mikeabn@aol.com), October 26, 1999.

I didn't prepare because of Yourdon, Milne and other doomers....WAAAHHHH. I can't think for myself....WAAAAHHHH. People have to do everything for me....WWWAAAAHHHH...I'm helpless.....WAAAAHHHH. Somebody help me! The government has to do everything for me.....WAAAAAHHHHH.....

-- Dr. PollyDork (DrPollyDork@moron.com), October 26, 1999.

The dumb polly probably still wears diapers.

-- X (X@X.com), October 26, 1999.

At the risk of having my fingers "flamed off", I think the poster was making the point that since 1999 Y2K predictions of gloom did not come to pass (July 1, Oct 1, 9/9/99, etc.), some people will think that Y2K itself is not a problem.

-- Anonymous999 (Anonymous999@Anonymous999.xxx), October 26, 1999.


All doomers fault. Didn't see TEOTWAWKI in 1999, so it cannot happen any time. Gave it a chance; didn't happen; ain't gonna worry no more. Party oooonn!

-- worry is for the birds (head@embedded.sand), October 26, 1999.

yes, I'm quite certain that most of America is poised, hovering over their keyboards, breathlessly awaiting the next post from Paul Milne or Bks to help them decide whether or not to prepare for Y2K...

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), October 26, 1999.

anon99 got it right. Its not that the failed predictions stopped people from preparing....it was the paranoid lunatic ravings of the Milne type that caused normal people to discount ANY y2k info as serious. Its okay to be wrong in a prediction, but when you are verbally abusive of ALL who disagree with you (like milne), and then get very quiet when nothing happens....no apolagies, no nothing....then just continue on in your y2k fantasy land of "tear down the old and make me king of the new", people tend to not only NOT listen to you anymore, but actively seek to discredit you.

Anyone who doesn't prepare (at ALL) probably DOES have the lunatic fringe to blame....as the pessimists always say "there will be blood on YOUR hands!"

Think about that before you post anymore deranged ramblings from a pig farmer, who has done NOT ONE OUNCE of y2k remediation....and in fact doesn't even work in IT.

-- anon (anon@anon.anon), October 26, 1999.


anon -

Please. Blaming those who take an extreme tone re preparation (Milne, North, whoever) for people's lack of preparation is ludicrous.

What is the primary source of important information for the vast majority of Americans? TV news, hands-down. What is the dominant theme re Y2K as communicated by this medium? Y2K will be a bump-in-the-road. That theme is echoed in radio and print media.

They did not get that theme out of thin air. It runs through every communique issued by banks, power companies, big business, and governmental agencies. It's precisely the tack taken by John Koskinen and every federal agency. If it hadn't been for yeoman work by Rep. Horn and Sen. Bennett, we wouldn't even have heard what little we did about the problem.

The banks say, "It's no big deal."

The power companies say, "It's no big deal."

All primary information sources say, "It's no big deal."

People aren't preparing because to do so requires, absolutely requires, a "sense of urgency." Ask anyone who's done much work in organizational design or change management. Without that sense of urgency, natural inertia will prevent the desired change from occurring. If you tell someone to get ready for 2 months of problems, you'll lucky if most get ready for 2 weeks' worth. If you tell 'em 2 weeks, you'll be lucky to get 2 days, and so forth.

That's human nature, and the dominant "BITR" scenario killed any possibility of creating a true sense of urgency.

So, here we sit, with the majority of Americans having done little and caring less about Y2K. Not because of Milne or anyone else who said, "It's !@#$%^ serious!!!" and called a few people names, but because of the soothing voices from the TV and the pleasant flyers in the mail that said, "Don't worry. Be happy."

That last phrase was repeated frequently when Dr. Yardeni chatted with Leon Kappelman last month about the complacency that is growing re Y2K. Complacecy, inertia, call it what you will, suffice it to say that it is easier to not change. It is easier to just go on about one's business. It is easier to not concern oneself about potential risks.

Easier, and much more comfortable. People want to be comfortable, and now they are.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 26, 1999.


Oh Puleeeez,

There are church groups everywhere that have forbidden their own minister to talk about Y2k! These are people who don't surf the net (too much bad stuff there) and have never heard of Gary North or Paul Milne. So what drives *their* denial and avoidance? Milne is right. They have dodged all alarming talk and maintained a distance to the news, even the official Navy, State Department, etc, news. Now, if things start to go real bad they will need a scapegoat. Where do you think the term scapegoat came from, and why? We have been saying all along that these people are not acting responsibly. So, they will now start acting responsibly? Sure. They'll make *you* responsible!

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), October 26, 1999.



Anon,

What kind of convoluted mental gyrations does one have to experience to end up with an argument like yours? That's about a good an example of pretzel logic that I've ever heard!! ARE YOU SERIOUS??

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), October 26, 1999.


Forum thread about this: The Origin of Happy Face Y2K Reporting

They started planning the spin control back last December. It has worked like a charm. Sure hope they're right.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), October 26, 1999.


"What kind of convoluted mental gyrations does one have to experience to end up with an argument like yours? That's about a good an example of pretzel logic that I've ever heard!! ARE YOU SERIOUS?? "

One could ask the identical question of Milne, or many other regulars. The problem is they never.... EVER, answer.

-- Mental Gyro (veruca@salt.shakit baby), October 26, 1999.


From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

I have to agree with the pollies on this one. To get people to prepare would require a constant consistent message coming from everyone people respect: their spouse or lover, their boss, their government, their favorite actors, their favorite newscaster, their local newspaper, their spiritual leader, mom, and their best friend. Preparation is a royal pain in the butt, not made any easier by naysayers.

What seems to us to be pure laziness is actually something more profound. All of evolution rewards those individuals who do not expend energy unnecessarily. Thus a tendency toward inertia is woven into the fabric of our being. Our government also trains us in irresponsibility by serving as our safety net. Culture also rewards folks who party it up.

The strong need to "fit in" and go with the flow keeps folks from considering any course of action that seems to step outside the ordinary. If extremists did not actually exist, the spinmeisters would have to invent them.

It is unfortunate that the 1999 dates got as much play as they did. Most of the well known Y2K personalities have at least briefly touched upon those dates as being potential problems. My impression from reading only a sample of the Y2K literature is that these dates were mostly noted in passing, with ultimate emphasis upon the actual rollover.

People who are eager to deny their personal need to prepare (which includes just about everybody) naturally grasp at these "failed predictions" as evidence that they need not exert themselves. Tragically, they're just wrong, though. Dead wrong.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 26, 1999.


Had Milne been as vocal as say, Flint for instance, in the tone of his y2k message, he would have been about as memorable.

No newspaper articles. No television appearances. No "Famous Quotes". No flamboyant posts. No household word.

You would do better to argue that homo sapiens is simply inherently incapable of learning and accepting that a huge disaster was imminent (gee...imagine that).

As I argued with Flint a year ago, he is not part of the problem, he is part of the solution, which has always been to sound the alarm, not to simply blend in.

He may be a so and so, but like it or not he's OUR so and so.

-- a (a@a.a), October 26, 1999.



Had Milne been as vocal as say, Flint for instance, in the tone of his y2k message, he would have been about as memorable.

No newspaper articles. No television appearances. No "Famous Quotes". No flamboyant posts. No household word.

Instead you get "Famous Quotes" such as:

If you live within 5 miles of a 7-11, you're toast

The telltale sign will be when you are shovelling lime, into the hastily dug and shallow grave of the corpses of your children.

All aboard, ignorami. There are still a few tickets on the flaming death train to Club dead.

So long suckers.

and of course:

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHA!

Oh yeah, that'll make believers out of the skeptics for sure.

-- (duh@duh.duh), October 26, 1999.


While I haven't followed all of the Y2K stuff that has been on this forum or others, I have been working with a number of what I would call 'Y2K experts', in that they have been doing actual assessment, remediation, test, and evaluation cycles. Most of them also pointed to the so-called 'trigger dates'. In every case of which I am aware, those dates were pointed out as being *potential indicators*. Places where we could get a 'read' on what we might have forgotten, how well the 'look-ahead' stuff was fixed, and by seeing that, perhaps get a handle on how much gasoline we might have poured on the fire in an attempt to douse it, etc. Paul might have gone further, particularly as he is, as I understand it, not a programmer, and might not realize just what a small percentage of code 'look-ahead' represents. And *of course* the general public didn't understand it. But then, you cannot hold any sort of technical conversation that the general public understands. (Technical problems cannot be discussed in words of less than one syllable.)

-- just another (another@enmgineer.com), October 26, 1999.

I can't speak about the rest of the US but for my little corner of the world in North Central Texas very few people engage in internet activity. Very few would know Milne or anyone else for that matter. Their primary source of news is the local TV , Fort Worth Star- Telegram and the Dallas Morning News. These worthy sources have certainly down-played Y2K up to this point. Now if you asked them how many yards little Johnny gained in last weeks football game then you would get a definitive answer!

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), October 26, 1999.

Compare and contrast . . .

Example 1)

Pete: Hi Dave, looking forward to the big new year celebration ?

Dave: Hey Pete, you bet, its gonna be one to remember.

Pete: Sure is. But Dave, what do you think about this computer problem theyre talking about ? You think theres anything to it ?

Dave: Oh come on Pete, youre not telling me you think the worlds gonna end on new years day? I figured you for a right-thinkin guy.

Pete: No, no, nothing like that, but hey, its gonna be cold and dark in January, and if theres the slightest chance we might get a few glitches, I figure it doesnt hurt to have some extra stuff put aside. You know, like some provisions, some candles, like you would for a hurricane or a bad snowstorm.

Dave: Hmm, yeah, I see what you mean. I think I will put a few things aside. Ive been meaning to set up a "hurricane pack" for a while. This would be a good time. Thanks for the tip.

Pete: No problem. See you in the bar later ?

Dave: Sure.

Example 2.

Pete: Hi Dave.

Dave: Hi Pete.

Pete: Are you Y2K prepared ?

Dave: Uh . . am I WHAT ?

Pete: Oh come on Dave, this is the most important thing ever. I cant believe you havent done anything. The world as we know it will end on the 1st January. Its all interconnected. The code is broken, and cant be fixed.

Dave: (edging away). Ok Pete, look, I gotta go.

Pete: Heed my word Dave, you owe it to your kids, you dont want them to DIE do you ?

Dave: Pete, what are you trying to say about my kids ?

Pete: Well, you wouldnt want to be shovelling lime into their recently dug graves in january would you? You have to be a responsible parent ?

Dave: Pete, youre pissing me off now. Get lost will ya before I stove your head in.

Pete: Dave, Im just trying to help. You MUST act. Y2K is real. And even if you dont think the computers will bring down society, what about the chemtrail conspiracy ? The new world order ? The Bildenburgs ? The Chinese invasion force ?

Dave: Whatever happened to you Pete, you used to be a decent guy.

Pete: Ok, fine, dont listen, just dont come round to our house begging for food when your kids are starving. We will be armed and we will defend ourselves.

Dave: OK Pete, I warned you about that . .

(sounds of scuffle . . punches . . ambulance sirens)

ANYONE RECOGNISE ANYONE ?

Kind regards

W

-- W0lv3r1n3 (w0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.


No.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), October 27, 1999.

OG

Its not just a river in Egypt.

Kind Regards from the old country.

W

-- W0lv3r1n3 (w0lv3r1n3@yahoo.com), October 27, 1999.


Mac, I thought your post was good. This sentence..."People want to be comfortable, and now they are." seems to pretty much explain the (non)reaction of the general populace to y2k.

Wolverine, I thought that your post was clever and funny. I recognised myself in it as the doom preachy guy, and quite a few acquaintances as Dave. The thing is, I still think that the doom preachy guys are correct in what they're saying, more or less. But maybe more good could have been achieved by attempting the easier task of cajoling people into some minimal preps at least, rather than telling it like I think it is, and saying that we're all in imminent danger of dying, and that Tiyodawookie is just weeks away.

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), October 27, 1999.


I thought the doom mantra was "NOBODY knows what will happen"

How can you advise people to prepare for the end of the world if you don't KNOW it will come?

-- Beats Me (eye h@ve.no eye deeya), October 27, 1999.


From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

How can you advise people to prepare for the end of the world if you don't KNOW it will come?

A small percentage of those who have prepared for Y2K are predicting the end of the world itself, but most are predicting varying levels of problems, with clusters around "profound depression" and "collapse of the division of labor." We who prepare accept that we cannot predict what will happen. It is not necessary to know with 100% certainty that something bad might happen, to want to take steps to mitigate possible problems.

Most of those who post here are preparing for a wide variety of outcomes. Doing so does not make us inconsistent. Thus, it makes sense for me to both purchase a solar panel for my roof (so I can refrigerate my medicine in case of outages exceeding a few days), and pre-pack to bugout in case the neighborhood burns down. I accept that I may not make full use of both preparations.

Where we differ most from those who refuse to take responsibility for themselves is that we do not have a dreadful fear of being "wrong". That is, our self esteem will not suffer much when not everything we predict comes to pass (which is bound to happen when preparing for a wide range of possibilities). We also will not necessarily consider that we have been "wrong" just because what we fear does not come to pass. The mere fact that problems are a possibility is a good enough reason to consider contingency plans.

We recognize that when we are perceived by others to have been "wrong" we will be subject to ridicule, and that loss of public esteem will be all out of proportion to how objectively "foolish" we have been. This can happen no matter how severe the Y2K situation is overall.

Even without the monotonous urgings from government, financial institutions and other corporations to lay all blame on those who panic, unprepared people will be inclined to make scapegoats of those who have prepared, without regard to when they prepared. The media are portraying those who have prepared as a nervous bunch who are to be feared during the transition period, because they theorize that we are the ones who will be increasingly tense in our anticipations. On the contrary, we have confronted our fears, taken rational precautions to minimize them, and have largely attained the level of preparedness at which we feel most comfortable given our time and financial resources.

While we are working to organize and store our purchases and information, the purchases we made have stimulated manufacturers to ramp up production so that there will be a possibility for many more people to prepare. For those of you who are planning to stock up a bit, which reportedly includes most people, according to surveys, please get your stuff in place at the earliest possible date (i.e. now). Your early precautions will allow more last-minute type people to succeed. Whether Y2K is a bump or a cliff, we want as many as possible of those who will panic to succeed in getting the preps that they deem necessary.

Those who have not prepared may become increasingly agitated as they realize that they just may need to have prepared after all, if only to compensate for the fact that JIT distribution is not equipped to handle sharp increases in demand. This is not the fault of those who bought early, even though it is convenient for the government to say otherwise.

Some of those who have decided to take the calculated risk of not preparing for some possible problem or other may become overexcited with mixed emotions, especially if they have been involved in some last minute panic buying attempts (which they may or may not admit to). Whether or not they actually ended up needing some particular preparation that they had considered or attempted to make, they may be prone to lash out at anyone who ended up better prepared than they.

Tension relieving attacks by the unprepared upon the prepared, whether physical, legal, economic, or verbal could be fueled by a curious mixture of envy and guilt (especially if these unprepared "prep police" have dependants that they care about). We don't have to wait for the rollover to see these attacks. Indeed, they've been a feature of the Y2K landscape for years, growing louder as we near the rollover. Interestingly, there is even at least one meta attack; an explicit call for unprepared folks to deliberately go out of their way to humiliate those who have prepared.

For those of us who are preparing for possible problems, this kind of social ostracism is the highest price we pay, no matter how much money and time we may spend. Fortunately, our many recent well-deliberated acts of caring for ourselves will have bolstered our self-esteem and we should thus be better able to handle this kind of classless attack with some grace.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 28, 1999.


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