ASSERTION: THE IT INDUSTRY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED INTO HETEROGENEOUS NICHES

Syllabus: Up until the early eighties the IT Industry was characterized by a general commonality of purpose, methods, tools, and management style. Software developers proceeded about their work in much the same ways, whether they worked for Aetna or NASA or anything in between. In particular, there was a strong consistency in the way software was built within the two major subsectors of the industry: engineering and commercial IT. Structured methods, when they arrived, were found equally applicable across both subsectors.

Since that time, the industry as moved progressively into a number of largely dissimilar niches. Today a PERL programmer at Yahoo, for example, will go about his/her work in ways that would be incomprehensible to someone doing PowerBuilder conversions at Merrill Lynch.

Fragmentation into niches can be expected to continue with new niches opening up as new approaches are tailored for new and evolving technologies and application types. The relative distinctiveness of the niches can also be expected to increase. By the year 2020, we expect the phrase IT Industry to have vanished. What will exist in its place is a set of niche subsectors, closely tied to the business areas they serve.

Fragmentation into niches will defeat attempts to achieve meaningful homogenization of process. Concepts like ISO-9000 and the CMM will cease to be relevant or appealing. Fragmentation will also defeat the now faddish notion of certification and licensing of IT professionals.

-- Anonymous, October 22, 1999

Answers

My guess is that the industry will oscillate between a few options and many. My guess other guess is that sooner or later people will discover that none of the systems they developed even three years ago are compatible with the next release of their existing operating systems and that they will become tired of totally rewriting their existing applications every 2 1/2 years just for the fun of it.

-- Anonymous, October 22, 1999