Capitulation phase beginning on CNBCgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
In a previous thread I'm Here, I'm there made the following comment:
Poor little Maria on CNBC was just about getting trampled by everyone around the IBM desk selling stock. And every talking head was chattering on about Y2k just about every other sentence. "Gee, maybe it IS a problem..." That large popping sound you may have noticed around 9:15 might have been Wall Street having its collective head pulled out of its collective a$$.
But then, probably not. Calling SuperGreenspan!
-- I'm Here, I'm There
I noticed that too. Also, the guest analyst they had on this morning was singing a new tune this morning, talking about how IBM should have seen this coming sooner, and maybe they just couldn't face up to having to make a bad report so they (IBM) just stuck their head in the sand.
Recently, there have been minor rumblings on the show about Y2K having measurable effects on various companies and the economy in general, but over the last couple of days it seems that a sea change in sentiment taking place about the potential severity of Y2K.
-- Clyde (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999
The only thing they said was that there would be a negative impact on future earnings. What do you think will happen when people wake up to the realization that ALL companies will be having 'lower earnings' in 2000 and beyond? S T A M P E D E ? Ride em, pardner!
-- ..- (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
IT IS a Problem!
Poor Maria...she just got it...."people storing water, food,....bank runs...."
One thing...how long will she last talking about bank runs on NYSE floor? Methinks a reassignment for poor ole Maria. Even Greenie might call CNBC & say 'hmmm....a prudent reallocation of Maria's time elements might be in order....'
-- texan (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.
No one reassigns Maria and gets away with it!
Right now they think Y2K only has to do with the technology sector and one anchor suggested that Y2K is a convenient event to blame for other company problems!
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), October 21, 1999.
Nothing like a broker scorned to bring about awareness...
"The story is IBM," said Ronny Kraft, CEO of Gotham Capital Management, referring to IBM's plunge after warning investors that Y2K concerns could slow sales for its fourth-quarter and first-quarter fiscal 2000. "People are starting to wake up to the fact that there is going to be a slowdown in tech revenues as a result of Y2K. I think the fourth-quarter is going to be extremely challenging for all [tech companies]. If you think this quarter is problematic, wait till you see the fourth quarter."
Kraft said earnings problems like IBM's aren't foreign to Wall Street, but this latest blow is one of the harshest. "There are so many companies that are blowing up: Intel (INTC:Nasdaq), H-P (HWP:NYSE), Xerox (XRX:NYSE), Unisys (UIS:NYSE), StorageTek (STK:NYSE), EMC (EMC:NYSE), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq) and now IBM," said Kraft. "This is a continuous problem. The multiples that exist on these stocks are absurd in the context of continuous evidence of a slowdown for Y2K, not to mention the yield of the long bond is 6.3%."
-- Roland (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
You think it's easy getting the passengers to see that iceberg ahead? When they're all down stairs at the crap table.
Consider IBM - the Jarring- they thought they just felt, but keep on rolling the dice. We are unsinkable!!
And now to Bob pisani--- Bob hows it going in the market today.
Well ---I'll tell ya its really strange--call it confusion or no direction-- we expect 900 million trades today havent seen this since april" very strange!!
-- D.B. (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.
And i'm lovin the #CURBS IN# Flashing almost on a daily basis now.
Hell -----> THERE ARE NO CLUES HERE, SHERLOCK!!!!!
-- D.B. (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
I used to be a stockbroker and now am an network administrator. I have done all kinds of research on economic trends and historical stock market crashes. What most people don't realize is that only a very small percentage of problems coming all at once can and will have a ripple effect and cause panic, more panic, and bank runs. I have studied the days and hours leading up to the crash of 1929 and the depression following, I have studied many other crashes as well. It is my opinion that if bad news and doom and gloom would have come about the mainstream media 1 year ago and more people began to panic then, then this horse pill would be easier to swallow. However, most people have their heads in the sand, they don't want to hear end of the world, doom and gloom, food stockpiling BS. Unfortunately in the next 2 months, more companies like IBM will be forced to admit lower earnings projections to shareholders; The market dived today due to a report by just 1 company. Imagine what could happen if a hundred more followed suit in the next 2 months. I firmly beleive that if only 5 percent of the total isn't ready come december 31st, that will be well enough make headlines and cause rampant bank runs. And even the most conservative government y2k estimates are at about 10%. Y2K like the crash of 1929 is more of an "investor psycology" issue than it is an actual physical problem. Albeit is a real problem, it isn't really that bad, but how bad does it have to be to effect the stock market, and how bad does the stock market have to be to effect inflation, unemployment, corporate bank loan defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs, high interest rates, small business, and on and on. When shit hits the fan it will gradually effect us all, and as it effects us personally, we will grow to be very conservative with our spending, which begins a ripple effect, a downward spiral, and an economic depression. I do not believe that this is the "end of the world", and I am not moving to Montana, I think extremists like that are part of the problem, but on the other hand to do nothing, and to just live in a shell of optimism is just as dangerous.
-- stockbroker and computer tech (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.
SSSHHH!!! Its called raiding the stops!!! Drive the price down then buy at a bargain ....SSHHHH..
-- Pickin up the peeces (Beenthar@dunthat.com), October 21, 1999.
see it happen!!! http://daytradingstocks.com/javacharts.html
-- madhatter (DUUU@DDAA.net), October 21, 1999.
You think you got a clue now? Well,do you punk? A nice,low 4 figure day,not counting the change.Scratch day,make that 2hrs. & about 17 min.give or take a little.
-- pickin up the peeces (Beenthar@dunthat.com), October 21, 1999.
stockbroker - "if bad news ... would have come about ... 1 year ago ... then this horse pill would be easier to swallow". Yup, that's a no-brainer, that's what many of us have been working toward. But casting us as a bunch of money-grubbing hypers made a better story. Want to do some good? Tell us how to communicate better next time, because we sure couldn't seem to do it for Y2k.
Ok, it's too late to soften the panic, it's too late for anything but minor prepping. 1700 hours, folks. Might be too late to order from Walton, but give it a try.
It's time to figure out your best hunker-down position, how to protect what you have, who you can cooperate with. What can you offer a team, right now? No time to take that blacksmithing class or learn to grow your own crops. Who do you want on your team, what to they offer, and do you have assets/skills that they need?
And get your butt to the grocery store, stock up what you can. Push your grocer to the max, he still has plenty of time to roll his stock over about 20 loops between now and EOY.
Food, shelter, warmth, water, safety. 1700 hours.
-- bw (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
Trucks roll into the store everyday for restocking. Was talking to a restocker today (he had 6 pallets of Campbells soup) that he was putting out. I jokingly said, looks like this store is getting ready for some Y2K action. He said "don't laugh, your right." He said they were expecting people to be buying lots of soup and chili and they will have plenty on hand. He told me that his daughter works in the Bay Area and the FBI occupies part of their complex. He said the FBI just got six generators at the office for Y2K. He asked me if I thought it would be bad and it gave me an opportunity to quickly get my 2 years of experience into about 15 minutes of the best. By the time I finished with him, his face was bright red and I could tell he was scared. Yes, I think I scared the sh*t out of him! Fortunately, I was in a different town than where I live so he didn't know me from anyone else. He said he was glad he worked at a grocery store and he would be loading up some stuff tonight to take home. And here I said that when people ask, I just tell them nothing is going to happen. I guess I sensed from him a real desire to know what to do and some fact to back it up.
-- bardou (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.
stockbroker & computer tech wrote: "I do not believe that this is the "end of the world", and I am not moving to Montana, I think extremists like that are part of the problem..."
For my benefit, could you please explain how a person's desire to be far away from a potentially dangerous situation is "part of the problem"? I see it as being a normal response - albeit one that few have the will or means to carry out - to an unknown situation. It is my understanding that the "Y2K problem" is related to computers and their ability to handle a date change. If such is not the case, I would appreciate any and all attempts to enlighten me on this issue.
-- PKM (.@...), October 21, 1999.
Gawd, bardou, I hope you watched your rear view mirror to make sure he didn't follow you home! (Though I know that if he had, you would have blasted him to smithereens....)
-- King of Spain (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
Your too kind King of Spain, want to mudwrestle..I'm in the mood?
-- bardou (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.