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People in general like to view life as a linear event. When in fact, life is actually nonlinear. Here are some examples of linear events: The passage of time, earth's rotation around the sun, the effects of gravity and the physical-universal laws of Physics.
Examples of nonlinear events are earthquakes, tornadoes, car accidents, life and death. Most people live their lives with the belief that life will unfold before them in a linear fashion. In fact, the belief that each tomorrow will for the most part routinely uneventful as the day that preceded it, is so deeply ingrained in each of us, that news reports that tell of calamities or tragedies elsewhere hardly warrant a second thought.
"20,000 dead in a Turkish earthquake (Wow) Turkish building codes!"
It is not without a sense of irony that we ponder this most human of human behaviors, as we realize that those 20,000 souls in Turkey the day before this "nonlinear" event, probably felt just about the same way most people do about the linearity of their lives.
It is quite human to have the feeling that bad things only happen to the other guy. In fact the idea of sitting down and thinking about our vulnerabilities, or making preparations for possible nonlinear events in our future, is not something that we all looking forward to. Who wants to think about bad and depressing things, much less spend money, time, and effort preparing for things you don't even want to think about?
How Would You React? What if an unexpected community, state, countrywide emergency or disaster occurred right now, even as you sit reading this article? Would you and your family survive on what you have in your home at this very minute? Would you have bottled water to drink or a way to filter water from outside sources? How much food do you have and how long would it last without refrigeration? If you were unable to cook could your food be eaten as is? How would you protect your family and your property if the need arose? Do you have a place to go if survival in your home was no longer possible? I realize this is overstating the obvious, but these are questions you must ask yourself prior to an emergency or disaster to facilitate your emergency preparedness. There is a lot of truth in the saying, "ignorance is bliss." Unfortunately, the majority of people that I have been in communication with, regarding emergency preparedness, are in this state of unknowing bliss.
Finding solace and comfort in thoughts like:
"Oh, nothing like that could happen," or "They won't let it happen," or "If that happened the Government would take care of us," or "If it's real bad I'm coming to your home Dr. deBoer" or worst of all, "I have a gun and I will simply take what I need." This is a recipe for a severe reality adjustment and is quite frankly whistling past the graveyard. But these are the most common statements made to me during my lectures, radio talk shows and one on one discussions with people about emergency preparedness.
What's wrong with this picture? First, the Government is not prepared to take care of you. However, most people think the government is. Second, the amount of people that have prepared is so small that they will be totally unable (including myself), to help the overwhelming numbers that have not prepared. Third, with the significant decay of morals and the basic concept of right and wrong in our society, resulting in an alarming number of people willing to murder and rob for their own survival, is presented a formula for a disaster of Biblical proportions.
If you have any doubts about this, think about what happened with the Rodney King verdict. There was one of many ethnic groups in our society that did not agree with the verdict in this trial. Los Angeles looked like a war zone. What do you think it will be like in a large city, if all of us are facing bacteria infested water and starvation from a lack of food?
The truth is, life is not linear. Things happen all the time that we have not planned for. Most of the time they are survivable. Unfortunately, sometimes they are no. Sometimes we are simply asleep at the wheel in that unknowing state of bliss. Yet, these things that elude us can be amongst the most important, if not the most urgently germane to our quality of life. They will eventually determine whether we do actually feel that survival is worth surviving.
The Most Probable Post Catastrophe Dilemma Let's for a moment describe a hypothetical catastrophe or disaster. To really get the most out of this drill you need to suspend any disbelief and brush aside the urge to ask your spouse if she took the sports section. Let us assume that some catastrophe or disaster has just occurred, and fortunately you are one of the few, who has completely prepared your family of four for such a disaster. In fact you have enough food, water, and other provisions to be self sufficient and self contained for 30-days. The power has been off for two days now. There is no water pressure. You cannot flush the toilet or take a shower, and the phones aren't working either. However, you feel confident because you had prepared your home for such eventualities and you have enough supplies for your family to live comfortably without gas, electricity, sewer, and water services.
The emergency has continued into the third day. You have kept your family in the house, but wonder about your neighbors and their level of emergency preparedness. You occupy your time listening to bits of news on your emergency radio and the news isn't good. You are hearing reports of riots and public unrest. Fires have created a hazy cloud cover that hangs in the sky overhead. You look outside and for a moment the smell reminds you of times in your youth when distant forest fires filled the sky for days with ash and smoke. You worry that fires could be burning out of control in your community. In the distance you can hear sirens and the sharp sound, "crack, crack" which sounds like gunfire, but could be cars backfiring. The thought lingers like the smoke overhead.
Suddenly, there's a frantic knock at the door. The shock of this unexpected event sets your heart pounding wildly as your mind races through pictures of who may be at the door! You fight to regain your composure to see who it is. Peering through the peephole, the distorted image of your parents and your brother's family only heightens the anxiety of their sudden and unexpected arrival.
You hesitate briefly and then quickly open the door and beckon to them to enter. Locking the door behind them, it seems an eternity before someone speaks, and in that span the faces communicate fear and concern for events unfolding. Your brother begins and the flurry of speech describes a frightening tale of what they have all been through in the past 48 hours. It's a miracle that they arrived at your home without injuries or loss of life.
When Is The Right Time to Handle This Dilemma? As your relatives settle in, the reality of the situation begins to sink in. Your supplies for a family of four will now need to provision a family of ten. What was a generous 30 day emergency supply is now only going to last for a mere 12 days. You think about how your sister and her family are faring and wonder what you will do if they show up. Then you remember your parents and brother joked about your concern for these unfolding events and your desire to prepare your family for what you foresaw as troubled times ahead. You want to admonish them for there lack of preparedness and the position they have now put you in. But you hold back your feelings knowing this is not the right time for such comments. You knew that they would be the first to show up "hat in hand" to share in that preparation, if events proved you right. You find no comfort in being right and you now wish you had prepared for them as well.
The fact is, that in such a scenario, you have but three choices:
Convince them to prepare as well before disaster strikes, or If they won't prepare, prepare for them showing up by purchasing extra provisions, or If they won't prepare and they show up, turn them away. Let's take this one step further. What would you do if one or more hungry, desperate individual tried to get into your home to take what they needed to survive?
Would you be willing to use deadly force to protect your family, your home and your emergency survival resources or would you allow them to take what they need, putting your family significantly at risk?
Emergency situations of this nature will most likely present you with very difficult decisions that you will have to face. These decisions are never easy and there is no one "right" answer. However, there are many wrong answers which could put you and your family's lives at risk. But, if you think about this type of situation before hand, you could avoid making a poor decision that could haunt you for the rest of your life.
How would you determine the best course of action, resulting in the greatest probability of a favorable outcome? Would you resort to the emotions of the moment, the current dog-eat-dog morals of our society today, or would you rely upon a concept that has practically faded from our western culture - ethics (the greatest good for the greatest number).
Ethics and responsibility go hand in hand. How much responsibility can you take? Are you willing and able to provide for yourself, your immediate family, your parents, your siblings and their families or close friends? How many could you help? Think about it! These are very difficult questions. However, to achieve a favorable outcome, no matter how you decide to handle this type of situation, requires emergency preparedness.
Questions of Survival Regardless of what action you would eventually take, I strongly suggest that you begin the process by first taking an honest look at life. Seeing life for what it truly is - an incredible nonlinear adventure in which we all play an important part. When it's all said and done, we all judge our lives, not by what we have acquired but by what we have done to make a difference in another's life. So what part are you willing and able to play in life? How much of a difference could you make in the lives you touch. When you look back at your life during this time period will you be pleased with your efforts no matter what happens or will you be faced with the harsh reality that your lack of foresight or responsibility may have contributed to the loss of life or lives of the ones you love. I have a two-year-old daughter. She has already made a tremendous impact in my life. Being her father and providing a good environment in which to raise her, is one of the most important responsibilities I have had. It is a hat that I openly embrace and truly enjoy wearing. She is the reason, the motivation, and the driving force behind all my efforts to help as many as I can, prepare for what may lay ahead. She is also why my wife and I have virtually liquidated all our plans and dreams for a comfortable cushy life, investing instead into our families future survival as we head into these troubled times. The frustrations, financial losses and heartaches endured as a result of my efforts to educate and assist others to prepare starts to seem worth it when I hold her in my arms. I know that I am doing everything in my power to insure her survival and the survival of others. When I think about her growing up during these times and possibly having to live through some very tough days ahead, tears come to my eyes, strengthening my resolve to endure and some how pull it off.
Looking at her I see all that is good in our world; the hopes and dreams of mankind. A society where ethical people are free to pursue their dreams. A society where helping one another is just what is done and a society growing spiritually as well as technologically. Some may call me a dreamer, an eternal optimist and I probably am. But it is the dreams of men that help foster the destiny of mankind. This is truly an incredible time to be alive. Don't let this opportunity slip away by failing to prepare for the hard times ahead. Plan to be part of recreating the dream of freedom for all men and women, which is the foundation that fosters that intangible thing which leads to the strength and power that is America.
The Time of Danger is Now! This point has already been made. However, It is a critical one so I will mention it again. In terms of a pleasurable activity, planning for a catastrophe ranks right up there with a root canal and or a federal tax audit. It is vitally important that you stop and take an honest look at what is occurring in the world right now. I mean really look and consider the shear number of possible events that may unleash a catastrophe, that could very well change life as we know it. I am not an alarmist. I am an individual that is willing and able to look at life and see what is truly going on. All you need to do is stop for a minute, (right now!), and really take a look and see! The dangers we now face include:
ASTEROIDS and COMETS: Comet Lee and several new comets with all the associated potential catastrophes they could cause. The scientist of The Millennium Group has predicted an increase in Hurricanes, Tornadoes, Earthquakes and Coronal Mass Ejections, CME's from the Sun directly associated with Comet Lee. In the last few weeks we have seen these predictions and theories gain significant credibility with the resulting category 4 & 5 hurricanes devastating the East coast of the Untied States. Furthermore, an unprecedented number of earthquakes above 7.0 have occurred around the world causing billions of dollars of damage and killing thousands. CME's: A few days ago a massive CME grazed our planet. A CME of this size, broad-siding the North American continent would have minimally destroyed the power grid, plunging part or all of the country into darkness. The electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from a CME has the potential of frying every microprocessor it comes in contact with. This means that at the impact area it would be like the day the Earth stood still.
What this means to you, is that the majority of automobiles would stop running wherever they were, at the moment of impact. All personal computers would be fried. All communications would fail. All air, sea and rail transportation in the impact zone would fail. Virtually every modern convenience we rely on would be toast. If all that wouldn't be bad enough!
Based on the size of recent record breaking CME's, experts have predicted that if the planet were to take a direct hit from one of these large CME's, the impact area for hundreds of miles would experience air temperatures of up to 150 digress Fahrenheit for eight to ten hours. This would extinguish virtually all plant and animal life in the impact area. We would also see hurricane force winds all over the planet for up to twelve hours.
It was also theorized that a CME impact of this size could trigger massive earthquakes and possibly a shift of the magnetic poles by a few degrees. The estimated effects on our worldwide population, would be a reduction by 20% within the first 24 hours and up to 60% within 30 days.
Let me state it again in case you missed it. Just a few days ago we had a near miss with a large CME grazing the planet. Recent evidence has indicated that it may have damaged some satellites and a space based telescope.
SUPER POWER CONFRONTATIONS: We are seeing a renewed Cold War. Russia and China are modernizing and arming at an alarming rate. Events continue to unfold and experts are stating that relations between the USA and Russia are worse now than at the height of the cold war. China's "saber rattling" over Taiwan and their threats, backed by missile technology capable of delivering nuclear weapons to any city in North America, make the headlines regularly. North Korea's missile technology continues to advance as they develop their own Nuclear Weapons.
TERRORISM: There is the threat of terrorism with suitcase nuclear bombs and biological weapons. This threat is so serious that our military is going into cities all across the country, to train local military units on how to deal with urban terrorism. It is further interesting to note that this is the type of training the military will need in order to function in a post-catastrophe world, where they would be unrestrained by due process through the enactment of Martial Law.
Y2K: Even with our Government bombarding us with warm fuzzy reports that all will be well come January 1st and the banking industry falling all over itself to convince us not to take our money out of the bank prior to year's end, there continues to be a growing number of voices sounding the warning that all is far from well. The fact is, we now face the possibility of a global catastrophic event, or a series regional catastrophic events, for at least the next six months.
END-TIME PROPHESIES: Biblical Prophecy and modern day Prophets such as Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, and Gordon Michael Scallion predict that we are entering a period of time which will produce tremendous trepidation and hardship for us all.
Nostradamus predicted that we would be uncertain about what is to happen, and with this in mind - are we? He also warned us of skyrocketing prices when the facts do become certain.
Should You Risk Starving To Death? Think about this for a moment. Within hours the super market shelves were bare as the public responded to news of the Cuban Missile Crisis in the early Sixties. Not one can of beets, nor one shred of toilet paper was left for those late to prepare. Today it would be even worse because of what is called "Just in Time Delivery." This entails maximizing profits by minimizing inventory on hand. Instead of a major supermarket chain buying lots of everything and "sitting on it" (warehousing it) to supply all of their stores as needed over time. They forecast each store's needs, for any particular item, based upon computer generated store sales statistics of each item in each store. These items are ordered through their computer to be delivered from the vendor to the distribution center and on to the trucks that deliver to the individual supermarket, usually nightly just in time to sell it to you.
Very few products sit around behind those double doors at the super market on pallets anymore, waiting to be put on the shelves. Why is this significant? Well inventory control at the company that manufactures your favorite soup is also tight, so they don't have lots of inventory sitting waiting, so that they are paying for both in terms of space and raw materials. They know, plus or minus, how much product they must produce to supply the demand day to day to all the stores who sell their soup.
Bottom line - one estimate says that in the "pipeline" there is only 72 hours of food if for any reason food production were to stop! If the power goes down across America we have 72 hours of food if they can get all of it to the grocery stores! And you think in the last 60 days of 1999 during the holiday season over 60 % of the US population plans to prepare for Y2K all at once, think again! Time is very short for emergency preparedness.
As soon as you've finished reading this article, go open your pantry and calculate how long you and your family could live on what is in front of you.
But then, you could always wait for the government to show up with the those awful tasting, but nourishing MRE food packs. Right?
The Government Will Not Let me Starve! At this very moment, our elected officials are trying to figure out how to spend the surplus. Yet thousands of American children will go to sleep hungry this night. Therefore, who can say with any certainty what the government will do. Likewise, we do not know what the government knows, and what they will share with us, or when for that matter. But what we do know, is that they know more then they are telling us. This is obvious by simply observing their actions over an extended period of time. Given a diligent effort, you can get a very good idea of what they are up to as the patterns begin to emerge.
What I can tell you is that I personally know of several government officials who plan to be in massive hardened bunkers with enough supplies to handle the worst case scenario Y2K could offer.
Most of the experts that I have studied or been in communication with recently are very concerned about this current administration. Their actions have placed them in a position whereby they could significantly reduce our personal freedoms if the right circumstances presented themselves.
In fact, this situation has me very concerned. The shear fact that Y2K could cause the public to panic and over react is why they have down played the seriousness of Y2K and put a happy face on it. Their efforts have been so effective that the majority of people to date think Y2K will be a mere bump in the road allowing more time for the few at the top of the economic pyramid to prepare. Unfortunately this is a formula for an unprecedented catastrophe.
Actually, the more likely and frightening possibility is they already know that there is a fairly significant probability that the USA population could be reduced by 50% or more in the next six months.
If so, why are they not warning us? What is holding them back?
Imagine what would happen if we all quit our taxable day jobs to build shelters and prepare for a catastrophe. The game, which the top one percent of the economic pyramid desperately wants to persist, would start to collapse and significantly eroding their power and control over us all. This situation is unthinkable for those in power. They will simply do what ever it takes to maintain their status quo.
It all boils down to this: You can be certain that the government is actively working to secure its survival from a post-catastrophe event, but are you?
Those Who Prepare Will Be the Most Likely to Survive From an historical perspective, time and time again cultures that made preparation that hedged against the vagaries and uncertainties of nature and man, always faired better than those who made no such efforts. Failure to prepare is preparing to fail. "This is as true in everyday life as it is in battle: we are given one life and the decision is ours whether to wait for circumstances to make up our mind, or whether to act, and in acting, to live." General Omar Bradley Based on all my research over the past 17 months, I believe there is a real possibility we could go through some pretty rough times in the next few months. The least we will all see, is a very bumpy road through the middle of next year with a world wide severe recession or even a depression. The worst you could see is a worldwide disaster of biblical proportions that could significantly reduce the human population of our planet.
Will you be one of those who chooses to survive? If your answer is yes, then you have joined the ranks of like-minded individuals, who believe that survival is worth surviving. By doing this one simple thing, you have begun the lifesaving process of getting yourself and your loved ones prepared for what tomorrow may bring.
I recommend that you prepare now - for at least a 90-day emergency for your family and those others whom you will choose to give aide and comfort. If enough of us prepare and plan to help those that don't, then we will increase the probability that a significant number of us will get through this period in relatively good shape.
By Dr. Jim deBoer The Millennium Group
All material is copyrighted by THE MILLENNIUM GROUP
-- justme (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999
Often the greatest good for the greatest number looks like selfishness. If the event is only going to last "a couple weeks", then sharing is OK if there is enough to last the WHOLE GROUP the TOTAL estimated duration. ALWAYS ASSUMING that the estimate is correct.
If the estimate is INCORRECT, then you now have twice as many folks hungry and in danger. And you have endangered your self and FAMILY.
In my marriage vows there is something about providing for my wife.
In my Masonic vows there is something about putting my family ahead of helping other worthy distressed master Masons ["...I will come to the aid of Worhty Distressed Master Masons, so long as it does not materially injure my self or family. ..."]
Greatest good for the greatest number (in Emergency Medicine we call this triage, and it truly means sorting out the ones we can help and the ones we can't) sometimes means that you get to look at someone and say to yourself that they get to die because the resources just aren't there to care for them.
In a mass Casualty situation, a responder may come upon a person in dire need of care, but to render that care might keep the responder from caring for 4 or 6 others, successfully. that person gets a black tag and the responder MOVES ON, knowing that that person will surely die. Limited resources require triage and application of resources to those that are salvageable.
-- Chuck, a night driver (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
Somber but true. If you keep pulling people into the lifeboat, it will overload and sink..........
I will take care of me and mine first. If I commit to including for a stranger (as I have already, son's girlfriend and her daughter whom I've never met), then that too is a commitment. I would not have offered if I did not have enough.
See the threads concerning Geri Guidetti:
And one I started concerning Department of Energy graphs on how much oil the transportation Industry uses, compared to imports and to other segments of the economy.
If there is a shortage due to refinery problems, to domestic Y2K related production glitches, and to import supply difficulties, the decisions to be made may literally be between people getting to work and between being able to get food to them at all.
-- mushroom (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.
Ooops!! The thread with the DOE graphs is at:
-- mushroom (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.
It is easy to concur with the good Dr.
Given that we are just reading his speculations. Good reading- Thought provoking material that I'm sure most here have thought about.
Problems arise in that none of us know the severity of interruptions.
I can envision a society that immediately starts to help its fellowman in a food shortage, and then regrets it once the discovery is made no more will be available for awhile.
Survival-- may be based on who makes the Hard,disciplined decisions right off the bat. Patience, lets see how long the disruptions last.
Not immediately running around the neighborhood banging your chest saying--"hey you dummies see how smart I was, I have food for you".
An unprecedented order of discipline is what I will be taking into the new millenium.
That means slow incremental decisions on every move I or my family makes. Who we talk to, where the cars are parked,what phone calls we answer, what we say to neighbors. Right down to Food portioning and how to deal with those who arent happy about my decision over caloric amounts for each day. Lots to think about.
I will agree that one cannot stock enough!
This may be the biggest chess game ever played by any of us!I find it hard at this time to anticipate anything other than my own behaviour and discipline if and when the time comes to consider short term and long term survival.
-- D.B. (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 21, 1999.
Well he misses the most likely major problem with Y2K and that is a natural disaster during January when things could be disrupted by y2k. It just amazes me that folks can be worried about comets and the world tipping when the potential is so low that it will likely not happen in the total history of man. But the chances of disruption by nature is real and with the changing weather patterns even more likely.
The post is more like fearmongering in some ways. But some day the reality may don on folks that it could be bloody cold in January and no one has an answer in dealing with disruptions in that type of weather.
If there is I would like to see it.
>>END-TIME PROPHESIES: Biblical Prophecy and modern day Prophets such as Nostradamus, Edgar Cayce, and Gordon Michael Scallion predict that we are entering a period of time which will produce tremendous trepidation and hardship for us all.
Nostradamus predicted that we would be uncertain about what is to happen, and with this in mind - are we? He also warned us of skyrocketing prices when the facts do become certain.<<
This is a JOKE.
-- Brian (email@example.com), October 21, 1999.