As a nation of consumers and a customer service oriented labor division,what will we do as a people if a world-wide banking collapse destroys our useless way of living?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I don't know anybody who actualy produces anything.Everyone I know works in the service industry.If fiat money becomes worth less than much sought after toilet paper,what will people do?We're such a spoiled people of entitlement I just can't buy the "we'll all pull together"line.When gas is $50 a gallon and our pathetic illusions of freedom fall away with our useless vcr's where will we as a people turn.Even if it is TEOTWAKI we can't hunker down forever.Where do you,my fellow doomers,see our society progressing?
-- apokoliptik (email@example.com), October 18, 1999
First, much hardship and eventually war.
Ultimately, the folks that produce nothing worthwhile (or nothing at all in the case of welfare folks) will become intolerable. Charity and caring will continue, but the useless sh?ts that choose not to work will be eliminated.
-- Anonymous999 (Anonymous999@Anonymous999.xxx), October 18, 1999.
Maybe then I will be able to get $50 for each chicken I produce. The people in the cities will die. The people in the burbs will starve and freeze, and the people in the country will continue to produce food. That is why I moved from the city 18 years ago. The way of life in the city just did not seem natural to this old farm boy. Oh, I gave the city a try, 5 years of my life, but it just was not natural. Why, one could not even go barefoot in the city.
-- chicken farmer (chicken-farmer@ y2k.farm), October 18, 1999.
We'll do the same thing we did back in the '30s: Hunker down, learn to make do with less, and rebuild our nation. Hopefully, we will have learned our lesson about letting Big Government solve our problems.
We need to go back on the gold standard. We need to reduce or eliminate fractional reserve banking. We need to kill the Federal Reserve and back out of all these treaties like NAFTA and gatt.
-- Tim the Y2K nut (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
I customer service jobs are lost,then Y2K pro will get laid off from Burger King.And he thinks his job sucks now.....
-- zoobie (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
Sure... the gold standard exacerbated the depression, as did the increased tariffs of Smoot-Hawley.
-- Ken Decker (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
Hey Ken when was the last time your hands had calluses?
-- blue collar (The differant email@example.com of work), October 18, 1999.
What are you saying? That our economic prosperity is an illusion, that we've convinced ourselves that the Emperor is wearing a fine suit, when in fact he's naked? That a nation of manicurists won't weather the storm? Do you somehow imagine that the central bankers have kept interest rates low to jack up the equity markets and pay down debt with devalued currency? What, you think that can't go on forever? Where's your PATRIOTISM?
-- Spidey (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
Read Klinton's Executive orders and you will plainly see where the survivors will be and what they will be doing. The entrenched gubmit bureaucrats are not going to give up their power. They have the organization and we are individuals without a common agenda. They can pick us off one at a time with their BATF, FBI, OSHA teams as they did at Waco and Ruby Ridge. You will have as much chance stopping them as you would to stand on the railroad tracks and hold out your hands to a speeding freight train and yell "Stop". Our only chance is to keep a low profile. The inner city gangs will reduce the population there. Eventually you will have to take a number in order to buy or sell or choose the alternative, ie die.
-- HERB (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
Falling. A period of chaos, insurrection, acts of terrorism, and global/regional war. Collapse of governments. In the U.S.: misery and desperation with violence and savagery worthy of Mad Max. Real starvation and disease, with small towns becoming armed fortresses-a No Man's (or Woman's) Land in between, with travel only in armed convoys or by train-if at all. In short, a new dark age, with everybody calling for a leader with solutions. Eventually, say, 7-10 years out, a ruthless, forced restructuring, with a great demarcation between the "haves" and the "have-nots". For a small percentage-no more than 2-3%, a life of untold wealth and ease. For another 10-15% mainly soldiers and technicians, a "middle class" lifestyle with a real correlation to the position of Medieval servants to Nobility. Feel free to quit if you are unhappy. Or die. The alternative will be unthinkable. For the rest: think Soylent Green. The vast majority living in squalor, with a barely subsistence level of rations and no hope. A bag of gold will buy a loaf of bread-if anyone had any gold. If there is any bread to be had.
-- chairborne commando (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
W O R K C A M P S
aka other terms throughout history
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
Check out at a used bookstore for a really cheesy series called "The Wingman" by Mack Maloney. Crap-Sci-Fi-Fiction on the post apocalypse after a Third Worls War. (I read all of them, indicative of my AWFUL taste in Literature!!LOL) It has a pretty good view however of a fragmented society, with transportation/military/government fragmentary and left to the "Only the Strong Survive". Hopefully this will NOT come about, as much as I hate to say it, being a new father leaves me praying for normalcy and a continued prosperity, but lets face it, who am I kidding? Like Diane sez (*Sigh!*)
-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan@Yahoo.com), October 18, 1999.
"The best we can hope for concerning the people at large is that they be properly armed." (Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist Papers at 184-8)
-- apokliptik (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
It looks more like there will be a world wide constriction of money (lending).
-- Paula (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
The service, entertainment, & advertising industries will be hard hit. Since imports appear to be vulnerable to y2k problems, one can assume that medicines, clothing & shoes, metals, petrolium, some chemicals, and others will be of very short supply once the stockpiles and warehouses are emptied & not refilled JIT.
The state of water & sewage in the cities will determine if cities will remain habitable because of disease. If a northern city, the availability of heat will determine if the city remains habitable due to cold.
The Food Chain, a complex detailed in other posts, remains highly vulnerable. Not only in getting food to stores, but in the ability for raw food processing, and ultimately in actual growing. Since imports will be impaired one can assume that there will be shortages of some fresh foods nearly immediately.
The fact that a huge number of SME's has done nothing guarantees enough business failures to create a large group of unemployeed people. If taken in context of post-bubble markets, the unemployeed numbers easily could be higher. One can also assume with some confidence that there will either be a lack of liquidity, deflation, or hyper-inflation. Any of these will impair everyone's ability to move and shake.
If FedGovt turn out to be lying to the depth I suspect, if DC is in as bad shape as the reports are indicating I surmise that FedGovt, if in existance at all, will be a highly attenuated version of its present form. Just the probable unemployment, without any govt problems, will surely screw up revenue intake to the point that entitlement programs will be bankrupt. Adding stock crash to that virtually guarantees severe lack of govt liquidity [or the hyper-inflation scenario]. In any case FedGovt's ability to conduct large coordinated actions will almost certainly be curtailed in the extreme.
Depending on our luck, and it will be luck, several different scenarios emerge. Everyone is familiar with the 8-10 group: sufficient groupings of failures creating conditions of high death rates, collapse of large scale civility, etc. Bad luck involving rail, ports, oil industry, water&sewage, etc. create a bad scene early on which then exaserbates problems in the Food Chain. In these scenes unemployment is the least of worries, as is any of the govt intervention scenarios.
Harder to figure are the middle numbers, say 4-7. In this group the impact will be more economic displacement rather than apocolyptic displacement. One should still assume that FedGovt will be attenuated, as will most StateGovts. Large number of business failures, both large and small will still take place, creating high unemployment. Transportation fuel scarce. Water & sewage problems, some health problems but not overwhelming. Food Chain problems with a reduced number of products available, especially in the processed area, and in the initial few months at least shortages of fresh food. The agribusiness of wheat, corn, soybeans, cattle, swine, dairy products will probably take big hits.
But the 4-7 group is of interest because it contains within the seeds for rebuilding. Once again luck will play a lot in the draw. While the ramp-up may take up to several years it is fairly easy to see a different type of national culture arise. One in which dependance upon huge organizations and systems would be a minimum. Food coming from local sources. Small "truck farms", Ma & Pa bakeries, local slaughterhouses, local dairy herds. One could also guess that hemp make a comeback as a fibre source for clothing, seed oil contributing to animal feed, soaps, fuel.
Since health care seems to be up for a major hit, we can assume that we will all be exposed to death in ways not now seen. It appears that we are headed towards the more traditional population spread: high infant mortality, few seniors. Additionally the adult population will again be vulnerable to infections from minor injuries.
Entertainment will change dramatically, with more entertainment be self-provided by small groups of participants.
What I'm pointing out is that it doesn't _have_ to evolve in a real heavy, bad way. Depending on luck, local growing and water conditions, climate, etc. it could evolve into civilization - something we don't have much of now.
While I still believe that there will be a large population loss a 4-7 would put that loss more in the extreme climates and those areas which experience bad luck in location and y2k infrastructure hit. In a 4-7 the hit will be bad enough for restructuring, probably resulting in geographically defined political area, resulting in extreme suspicion in large scale enterprises, resulting in initial shock & dislocation, over 5 to 20 years a much stronger self-reliant nations/group of nations could emerge. Groupings attuned to individual needs, attuned to environmental needs. Groups that will actually begin dealing with our excesses and environmental predation. Groups that see the value of living in balance and harmony as the primary way of living on our only planet.
I have doubts that Fed & State Govt will survive, or if in a attenuated form, in a form that we now call Govt. I have doubts that banking as it is practiced will survive. I have doubts that corporate agriculture will survive. I have doubts that transportation will survive in the form we currently enjoy. [the era of getting into one's car for a quicky trip is probably nearly over] [the era of ultra-cheap shipping costs is probably nearly over]. I have doubts that the various national alliances - military & economic - will survive.
Out at 5 years I can easily envision that we have taken the reins back into our own hands and will have began, at least, to provide our own clothes, food, medicine, shelter, entertainment, etc. We will be a very integrated society, or groups of society in that world. Ones with pride of spirit and place. Ones in which extended families, blood or other, create context for a different type of democracy, liberty, and freedom than those we now enjoy.
-- Mitchell Barnes (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
From another board:::Note the bank did not have the $ to pay him. This is not good.
we need to hold 1243 or 1236 and 1227 will appear. Still think today is the low for a close. Never know, if we don't make the 1227 area today, might get it tomorrow for interday low after CPI release. Next possible low is 10/26, however continue to believe 11/3 will be next selling opportunity. If S & P can't get back over 1316 on next rally the November low should be 1130-40 or worse. Y2K panic might get nasty in November. I tried to draw $25K cash last Thursday from the bank and was told they would have it on Monday, stop back. I'm in the early bird group for cash withdrawal and couldn't get it. Wait til November when the late comers hit them and find out they have to wait. A story like this hits the newspaper and panic withdrawals will send this market down hard. I also believe there is a large group of people who would not like their broker holding their money on 12/31/99, including me. This is going to cause a continued liquidation in the market all the way to 12/31. In case you haven't noticed, there giving away the December S & P calls. Premiums are well under normal vs the November calls. Options traders are not to concered about new highs by 12/31 when you can buy the 1350 November call and the 1400 December call for around 4.00 Hope you can live thru your longs for another day.
-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), October 18, 1999.
I'll take a shot at the target. Pray that it never gets this far.
Economy tanks and implodes due to debt structure collapse. US dollar becomes worthless and unavailable at the same time. We return to a barter based economy (see current Russia).
Federal Government looses control and can no longer dominate over the States and Counties due to inability to collect taxes and distribute benefits (defined broadly as whatever the Federal Gov shells out money for these days, not just welfare, etc).
States and Counties begin to lock down borders and control population and goods movement in an attempt to figure out how to collect taxes and distribute benefits/services (mainly police presence, tax collection) and not incure additional hungery mouths to feed.
Most debts and mortgages go into default. Economic activity becomes a struggle for bare survival. Anarchy where local government can not or does not meet the security needs of its locality. No one knows what to do and no one trusts any authority figure or representative of any so called government.
Some people starve the first winter/spring. There is no way for most people to plant a crop near any urban or suburban areas since all crops are confiscated by 'authorities' or 'gangs', which are not very distiguishable from each other at this point. The second winter many people die from privations due to malnutrition and disease. Cities are abandoned but those who flee will become a great refugee wave which dies in the wilderness. People walk into the country looking for anything to eat or for shelter from criminal activity. They will find that it would have been better for them to have stayed in the cities.
By 2005 things have died back to some semblance of stasis where population/food-fuel production/governance find a balance in a rough environment where people's basic needs can be met and secured locally. From there we reinvent the twentieth century in the twenty first century. Maybe.
This is a dark scenario but possible. I hope we never see it but am afraid that some will see this happen in their nation, if not the USA to this degree. It has already happened in places like Uganda, Indonesia, Russia, etc without Y2K catastrophy wrecking the economic train.
I suppose in a global sense it will be a matter of degree not an yes/no kind of thing.
Possibly we will cry out to God who will hear our cry for truth and mercy and will answer most unmistakeably.
"With God NOTHING is impossible"
-- ..- (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
* * * 19991018 Monday
-- ..- (firstname.lastname@example.org):
Don't conveniently forget that, conversely,
... "With 'God' Y2K disaster is possible, too!"
Regards, Bob Mangus
* * *
-- Robert Mangus (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
God laughs at the suffering of his worshippers.
-- death for us all (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
"Every happy family is alike. Each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way." -- Opening words (more or less) of _Anna Karenina_, by Tolstoy.
Reading the original question, I have a very hard time figuring out whether apokoliptik means to present a scenario where paper money become worth absolutely *nothing*, or where a $50 bill will buy a gallon of gas. These are two very different scenarios, to my mind.
If money ceases to have meaning, we will have reached a state of anarchy. If money still has value, the infrastructure will still work, though badly, and there would still be avenues open for political solutions.
Posing such a confused, nebulous question can only lead to a confused and nebulous set of answers, IMO. But we might get some colorful pastiches of impressionistic writing.
-- Brian McLaughlin (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.
"Where do you,my fellow doomers,see our society progressing?"
One word.... Community.
-- @ (@@@.@), October 18, 1999.
We'll need community effort to bury all the corpses.
-- zoobie (firstname.lastname@example.org), October 18, 1999.
Read W.W. Johnstones' series of books "Out Of The Ashes". That's one possible future. Do a search for tristates and you will find the rebels are alive and well right now and they are doomers.
-- Mr. Pinochle (email@example.com), October 18, 1999.