Can anyone explain Greenspan's position? : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Whatever else he is, Greenspan is not an idiot. He has undoubtedly read the CIO surveys, the State department, CIA, Inspector General reports, and the Y2K congressional testimony. Plus he can't have any better information on small and medium sized companies than the various surveys going around that say 30% have done nothing. In fact, probably his only source of inside information is reports from banking regulators in the U.S.. For foreign banks, he probably gets some inside info, but having no way to hold them accountable, it probably isn't as solid as his U.S. info.

So what does he think he's doing saying Y2K is nothing? He *has* to know that there is significant probability of big problems, and overwhelming probability of a least noticeable supply chain disruptions due to small company problems.

Obviously he doesn't want bank runs. But these can happen just as easily when problems become obvious as they can now. Similarly, if Greenspan really thinks we're in a bubble market (and his comments certainly lean that way), then he has to know that even a mild bump in the road could pop that bubble. So is he really throwing away his credibility just to keep the bubble going for another few months? Can anyone tell me how he's not going to look like an ass next year?

-- You Know... (notme@nothere.junk), October 15, 1999


Greenspan will allow Wall Street to tank in order to save Main Street.

He will bolster the banks in order to salvage the American economy because, if the banks fail, our entire economic system will collapse.

Greenspan is facing some extremely difficult choices and is pondering some crucial questions such as:

Do they have an extradition treaty in Tahiti?

-- Randolph (, October 15, 1999.

A controlled pop of the asset bubble he created with loose credit. If he let it ride today, it would have gravitated straight to Y2K and so doing, unraveled the banks. He deftly avoided this with his one two punch. Round one to big Al. I think it's pretty smart. Additionally if he doesn't devalue our assets some, we will be hit with even bigger international capital flight than anyone could imagine. After all if things are gonna go to the shitter, you don't want to invest in things like prune juice. Get it?

-- Gordon (, October 15, 1999.

Isn't it obvious what he's helping to set up?

The Great Culling of 2000.

He'll be safe in "Galt's Gulch."

-- (get@ready.folks), October 15, 1999.


According to my very limited understanding, many foreign countries, especially Japan, have invested heavily in Wall Street due to advantageous interest rates. But if economic conditions worsen in America, then these foreign countries have every lawful right to withdraw and invest in safer havens.

The misunderstanding I have encountered is that the average American investor with the 401K plan does not realize that if the foreign countries sell off their assets, then US citizens will be stuck with the entire debt by default due to company investment restrictions.

They are ensnared in a fierce bear trap which shall tighten even more.

Americans live and breathe dollars, which are the backbone of our economy. But foreign nations can switch on a dime to a Mark.

Anyway, I appreciate all of your commentary, but I am no where near your level of expertise. Only this year have I finally followed the stock market. Man, oh man, what a learning experience!

-- Randolph (, October 15, 1999.

I don't know it this is what you are looking for but I though it summed up the way he thinks about his situation. specially the last sentence. I would read this if you have not already. Plus there is his Jackson Hole speach that is rather revealing.

 Federal Reserve Board: Speech from 10/14/1999

More important, boards of directors, senior managers, and supervisory authorities need to balance emphasis on risk models that essentially have only dimly perceived sampling characteristics with emphasis on the skills, experience, and judgment of the people who have to apply those models. Being able to judge which structural model best describes the forces driving asset pricing in any particular period is itself priceless. To paraphrase my former colleague Jerry Corrigan, the advent of sophisticated risk models has not made people with grey hair, or none, wholly obsolete.

-- Brian (, October 15, 1999.

Just think about this: A couple weeks ago Greenspan said inflation is not a problem and they dont see it becoming a problem. The talking heads and influential people on the street basically said the same thing. Today the "PPI" said everyone is an idiot and they have not been paying attention to the facts.

Today Greenspan is saying Y2k is nothing, so is the average talking head or advisor to joe-six-pack-stock-buyer (note: I didnt say joe-six-pack-investor, joe-six-pack has NEVER been an investor).

Will Y2k show up on 1/1/2000 and also tell everyone they are idiots and havent been paying attention to the facts ?.

75 days to go for the release of the "Y2k report". We shall see.....

-- hamster (, October 15, 1999.

None of you seem to have read any HISTORY.

Of all the BUBBLES witnessed in the past 275 years(Mississippi Scheme, SOUTH Seas, 1929), NOT ONE was ever deflated gracefully. Every one led to a horrible depression. The South Seas Bubble, for example, led to a depressive economy for over 60 YEARS!

This Great Asset Mania makes 1929's peak look grossly UNDERvalued. The economic growth does not support anywhere near the p/e ratios we see. There can be only ONE outcome to this. It will be a GREATER Depression than the 1930's, and this is written WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE ANY Y2K PROBLEMS.

In other words, events will unfold to fulfill the portent of the Grand Supercycle WAVE that is about to hit, and it can come from ANYWHERE.

-- profit_of_doom (, October 15, 1999.

Nothing will be the same from after week til...........

The unraveling has started!

First the self-fullfilling prophecy of stock market panics, then bank runs, then hoarding.

And we won't even be thru Dec.

Human nature does not like potentially negative unknowns.

I liked Alans (why not call him by his first name) chagrin today when he mentioned that eventually the press will begin the dirty deed of focusing in on Y2K.

-- David Butts (, October 15, 1999.

Hey profit_of_doom:

I don't claim to be a History Major. But I do know that most Americans care less about history and more about their favorite TV specials. When I mention various past geniuses, most are not aware of their accomplishments, much less their existence!

Yes, this current stock mania will end in the greatest financial crash in the history of the world.

Yes, almost EVERYONE will be TOTALLY SHOCKED when it happens.

We've warned them, but they are too deaf to hear!

-- Randolph (, October 15, 1999.

Sir David:

How didst thou in today's volatile stock market?

My father boasted earlier this week that he had made some major investments in the stock market.

When I heard that, I cringed.

Man, oh man, he's a bull with blinders!

He has placed his investments into a fierce bear trap!

Yes, he is a wealthy man and independently minded.

Yes, he is a good father.

No, he will not listen to my earnest pleas to get out of the market.

Yes, he will lose all of his investments!

What would you suggest I say to warn him to pull out before the stock market crashes?

-- Randolph (, October 15, 1999.

Can I have my inheritance now please?

-- Please (Before you loose, October 15, 1999.


And let's not forget Tulipmania!


-- Avalon (, October 15, 1999.

Greenspan just trys to expand the green: so comes his name, kinda what the federal reserve does. I have no money and i need none, and those that do will sacrifice their lives..quick

-- sandy (, October 15, 1999.

There is a financial war going on with the Europeans in cahoots against the dollar as the world reserve currency.

The only way to make sense of what is going on, with oil, gold, silver etc. is to reaklise this fact.

The rest of the world have had enough of american dollar debt arrogance - it's pay back time...

Look for another gold announcement on Sunday in the wee hours...

China is making a move now to usurp London (the LBMA) and trade gold independently of the Cabal...

I feel the gold producers will announce a gold cartel a la OPEC...

Greenscum and the Fed have BLOWN IT big time.

-- Andy (, October 15, 1999.

Date: Fri Oct 15 1999 07:19 SteveIS (Greenspan is working with Europeans) ID#297380: Copyright ) 1999 SteveIS/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved

The Europeans want the US stock market down. They are pissed that Greeny hasn't had the Cojones to pop the bubble much earlier. When they made their gold announcement it was aimed at the US bubble markets.

Greeny went to them after the gold explosion and said help drive down gold so some of my boys can cover. So they said only if you start to pop the stock bubble.

The timing of Greenie's annoucement is astounding. This morning is settlements for October S&P options. The pros are the ones short all the puts which suddenly are in the money. Greenie is telling the pros to back off. The PPT isn't going to help them anymore.

The stock market is going to get real ugly real fast. They may step in to slow the fall a little but not to much.

The gold bull is just begining. Don't get shaken out by little squiggles.

We aren't in Kansas anymore.

-- Andy (, October 15, 1999.


Do you see a major Wall Street crash beginning on Monday 18OCT99?

-- Randolph (, October 15, 1999.

Subject: Can anyone explain Greenspan's position?

When you're nose to nose and your toes 'r in, and when you're toes to toes and your nose's in, I'd say it was missionary.

Night train

-- jes an ol footballer (nighttr@in.lane), October 16, 1999.


Yes I do.

Add this fuel to the fire.......



Good luck all...

Got Gold?


12:55a EDT Saturday, October 16, 1999

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy tonight sent this dispatch to his subscribers at and asked me to send it to you because it is of general interest.

GATA is calling all friends of gold to their battle stations for a special announcement at 7:50 a.m. Central Daylight Time this Sunday -- tomorrow. This is going to be war, and we're going to win it.

Please post this as seems useful.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

* * *


By Bill "Midas" Murphy

Friday, October 15, 1999

This past week I told you that some of the major gold producers had agreed to an unwritten, but formal agreement, to cut their gold production, a la OPEC. My information came to me from the best of sources in the gold producer community.

I just received this email from GATA Treasurer, Chris Powell. It quotes an a usually informed source who posts on the Interet:

"It's illegal to form cartels in America. The government prohibits any such organization. But outside America, it's perfectly legal. Just take a look at OPEC.

"Since the British gold sale, South Africa got real angry and, led by Anglogold, it has been pushing full- steam into creating an international gold cartel made up of non-USA gold producers.

"The rumor buzzing out of London tonight is that an agreement has been reached and will be announced at a big press conference soon.

"If non-USA mining companies announce even a 25 percent reduction in global gold output, it's gonna ignite the gold price beyond description."

This confirms what I have been told.

I also have reported that there are rifts in the World Gold Council. This explains the rift. The overly hedged shorts do not care for a cut in production; their shares will not perform well if the gold price explodes. This also explains why Gold Field Ltd. announced today that it has now covered most of its hedges.

Chris Thompson of Gold Fields and Bobby Godsell of Anglogold have been the powerhouses on behalf of gold. They are standing up to the Hannibal Cannibals and are quietly changing the gold world in behalf of their companies and the gold industry. Gold shareholders, they are your angels. They should be applauded.

Carpe diem is in. Hannibal Lecter is out.

By now you all know that the U.S. Producer Price Index figures released today were far more bullish for gold than anyone imagined. The dollar was beat up and the equity markets were trounced around the world, yet gold was allowed to rally only $2 by certain malign forces. If that did not hit you over the head today about what we are dealing with, get a checkup with a top brain surgeon.

Our camp has been victimized far too long. I would like to echo our sentiments:


The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee certainly will not stand for the government bailout of the cartel that has ruined so many companies, shareholders, and miners to suit its own greed.

At 7:50 a.m. Central Daylight Time on Sunday morning GATA and the "right flank" will make an important announcement to every gold company shareholder in the world.


-- Andy (, October 16, 1999.


-- Ynott (, October 17, 1999.


-- Piggy (HaHa @ how cares .com), October 17, 1999.

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